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Will Answer Questions

Posted by: Sir_Realist - Sat Oct 30, 2004 4:49 pm
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Post    Posted on: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:29 pm
Dr_Keith_H wrote:
Gent's ... it seems pretty obvious this guy is not working for/with DVP. I mean there is nothing of substance in anything he has put down here.


I don't quite understand your thinking here, DKH -- it's the complete lack of substance to his postings that convinces me that he may very well be associated with DVP. :D


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Post    Posted on: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:42 pm
I quite agree with mrmorris...

In fact, NSFB has posted here before and this person who opened the thread never had a single post here before this. I smell another rat...with another login. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if NSFB posted this crap himself. It smacks of the same disassociation with anything remotely factual. The only thing missing is the Magic Helmet itself.

May the farce be with you...

Magic Helmet....MAGIC HELMET!!!!!!!!!

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Post THIS JUST IN...   Posted on: Mon Nov 01, 2004 7:29 pm
This just in.....

chasti1161 wrote:
I think after all the hoopla of DVP launch (on then off again) it is pretty safe to say that Brian Feeney will find very little support from our town of Kindersley. After planning for a launch twice to have it come and go by again without any comment from DVP, I am pretty sure that alot of townspeople are ready to ride him out of the town and the province on a rail (after all the money that was spent advertising, etc). If he wasn't ready to launch don't announce a date. Simple as that. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out. If he needed the publicity to raise funds for the launch there are better ways of accomplishing it than announcing a date and then saying sorry we aren't ready yet. Does he not realize that by doing this he is losing the support of the host site. I mean it is not like they have to let him launch here now. He failed to make good on his commitment. I don't think that it would have invaded an privacy of the DVP if they could have just told the folks out here planning this launch that there were some complications and they don't have everything needed for the launch. People would understand delays but to say nothing at all and they expect a town to receive you with open arms is a little ludacris.

Sorry to rant at you harbinger1337 but there are alot of pissed off people out here that invested money and time to watch it fly out the window on someone's ill made promises.

If you want anymore info let me know.

cheers,
chasti1161

Quote:



This was from a PM just received with permission to post this to the forum.

Again....this says it all. NSFB hasn't even seen fit to keep the Kindersley people informed because I guess he doesn't feel they "have a need to know". Fits in perfectly to his entire scenario. Wouldn't you just love it if it turns out he really has a balloon and rocket and they're ready to launch, but Kindersley won't allow the launch because of the way he treated Kindersley?

Sometimes the good guys win....

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Post    Posted on: Tue Nov 02, 2004 7:59 am
Hello, joel,

your statement that Scaled is years ahead of DVP is concluded from data available and from reports, pictures and articles - it's an estimation and not a fact.

The data available from Scaled are rich and exact - the data available from DVP are not. So no safe and secure conclusions for use in comparisons can be made - the amount and quality of date have to be nearly homogenous at least to do that.

Economics over several decades has developed ways and methods to use richness, exactness and quality of data as instruments to effect public interest, perception and much more - strategies to play with the politicians, the public and with each other. These strategies are valid if there is economical power involved. Scaled might have used their policy of rich and exact date to discourage competitors - DVP might have used their poor and vague data to cause other to be nervous, make mistakes etc. and to discourage them this way.

I don't say or state that both teams really have done so - but it might have been strategy and in DVP's case it still may be strategy: they might feel to be forced to.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:12 am
Ekkehard Augustin wrote:
(joel's) ... statement that Scaled is years ahead of DVP is concluded from data available and from reports, pictures and articles - it's an estimation and not a fact.

Joel doesn't claim factuality. He puts forward a reasonable hypothesis based on what is known. In fact, given the situation, it even passes for scientific method (and believe me, I know scientific method when I see it). This hypothesis can (and will) be tested, the best kind of hypothesis there is, all we have to do is wait and see.

What is unreasonable is to ask people on a forum to reserve comment due to a paucity of hard facts. Actually, it's impossible. I wont ask you to stop, but I will ask you to differentiate between unsupported claims and reasonable hypotheses.

... and morris ... harb ... you guys are just too damn funny for your own good.

DKH

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Post    Posted on: Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:32 am
No problem - I only wanted to work out that joel has set a hypothesis. And nearly each hypothesis has at least one competing hypothesis - so James Hughes has set a hypothesis too and I myself have in the past too.

So I really want a hard test of the hypothesis - and the competing hypothesises.

I like to do the differentation you ask me to do - by my job I'm used to do it but implicitly because it's normality in commercial informatics departments of big enterprises.

Scientific methods I didn't have in mind - sorry for causing a misunderstanding.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

EDIT: Perhaps I should add that the strategy developed for enterprises by Economics (and entrepreneurs too) means that most enterprises wouldn't publish data that could be of scientific use or value. The data really are aiming at the psychology of the people - they are hiding something and they are suggesting something. It's part of information policy and public relations. They adress the public and the customers - and their purpose is to get rid of the competitor...


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Post    Posted on: Tue Nov 02, 2004 1:56 pm
Hmm, I'm a bit confused as to Joels comments re: amateurs (please note correct spelling!), and something about swearing?

Forgive me if I have inadvertently insulted any professional rocket builders on the forum, that was not the intention, but as far as I know the only professional who regularly posts is John Carmack (although strictly he is also an amateur, as he doesnt get paid for his work). That would make the rest of us amateurs. Interested amateurs, and some quite well informed amateurs but amateurs nontheless.

Just to add, I have no connection with the DVP, BF - the only connection to the XPrize I have is that I once went to Starchaser and had a long chat with Steve Bennett with the thought of helping out as a volunteer - as it turned out the round trip would have made my time ineffectual (now he is in NM of course, the round trip from here in the UK is even greater!)

Pls remember that my original post was not in defence of DVP or BF per se, but in defence of actually waiting to see what will happen with them, rather than continually slagging them off for not hitting what was, admittedly, a very difficult deadline.

I am simply going to wait to see what happens - my own personal thought on the subject is that they will launch, but not for some time, and it probably wont go as well as hoped! I think Starchaser have a better product, and they are spending a lot of time getting it right, whilst suffering the same problems with funding as DVP and all the other XPrize entrants barring Scaled.

>>
What is unreasonable is to ask people on a forum to reserve comment due to a paucity of hard facts. Actually, it's impossible. I wont ask you to stop, but I will ask you to differentiate between unsupported claims and reasonable hypotheses.
<<

Why is that unreasonable? Surely a paucity of hard fact *should* restrain someone on commenting on something? I know very few facts about Quantum physics, so it would be unreasonable of me to try and comment on it, except to say that I don't know anything about it! Here's another good example from the news in the UK - last year, a newspaper started a campaign against paedophiles, naming and shaming etc. However, one of the results of this was that a Paediatricians house was mobbed by a crowd of vigilanties - no hard facts involved there - the woman was a child doctor not a paedophile but the uninformed comments by the paper and speculation and hypotheses of those in the mob lead to an extremely dangerous situation. (which was eventually sorted out). What I am trying to say is that I for one try not to comment on something unless I have at least a base of facts to go on - I don't think the base of facts about DVP is enough to say yes or no to any of their claims, so therefore I will wait and see. Obviously you are all free to do as you wish!

James


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Post    Posted on: Tue Nov 02, 2004 2:08 pm
JamesHughes wrote:
some quite well spelled (or spelt) stuff, then he quoted me ...

>>
What is unreasonable is to ask people on a forum to reserve comment due to a paucity of hard facts. Actually, it's impossible. I wont ask you to stop, but I will ask you to differentiate between unsupported claims and reasonable hypotheses.
<<

Why is that unreasonable? Surely a paucity of hard fact *should* restrain someone on commenting on something?

Perhaps I should have said it was unreasonable to expect asking people to reserve comment would actually work. It doesn't, sadly.

DKH

P.S. It's "vigilantes". :wink:

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Post    Posted on: Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:22 pm
Gentleman Ekkehard,

My big problem with DVP is Feeney's claim to be close to Scaled in development schedule. I think lying is poor form. Otherwise, I'm delighted with his self-styled, seat-of-the-pants attempt to fly into space.

Ekkehard states,

"The data available from Scaled are rich and exact - the data available from DVP are not. So no safe and secure conclusions for use in comparisons can be made - the amount and quality of date have to be nearly homogenous at least to do that."

Well, I think the relative amount and quality of the information from these two teams is an indicator of their progress and credibility. But in the context of explicit facts, we have:

A)Scaled launched a man into space on June 21,2004, according to a publicly announced schedule

B)DVP displayed a hollow rocket shell on August 6, 2004.

Is this not enough to determine that as of August 6, DVP was at least 6 weeks behind Scaled?

C)DVP did not launch on their scheduled date of October 4.

Does this not indicate that DVP is at least 10 weeks behind Scaled?

D)DVP did not launch during the month of October as they claimed they would.

Does this not put them at least 13 weeks behind Scaled? These are facts.

OK, now lets consider the two-year test/development/refinement program that Scaled executed. DVP does not have a schedule for this. As soon as their hardware is finished, they have repeatedly claimed it will take Brian to space. Now, Mr. Rutan is one of the most prolific and successful aircraft engineers in history, while Mr. Feeney has no successes to claim in this area. Mr. Feeney would have us believe he can skip a two-year effort that Mr. Rutan felt necessary. I see this as hubris. This is subjective of course, but I think realistic.

In any case, the Xprize is won and Brian has lost that 'race'. He has also lost credibility for claiming and failing to be ready to launch twice. Personally, I weigh his bold hints of secret progress against this. I'm glad you have a different opinion, as it keeps this conversation going.


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Post    Posted on: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:14 am
[quote="Dr_Keith_H
P.S. It's "vigilantes". :wink:[/quote]

Bugger - I managed to spell all the difficult ones right as well, and went and got that one wrong. Oh well!!

Still thinking about the statement 'Just behind Scaled'.

Is 13 weeks 'Still behind'? In a car race, a long way behind, in a 5 year project, not that far behind....I should know, I've been over a year late on 5 year projects....

James


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Post    Posted on: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:16 am
What Scaled does or did is a fact - what DVP does or did is a fact too.

My point was that they didn't explain their reasons for their doing - so there is a lack of information about facts that are or work as reasons for their doing.

These reasons might be information policies - if that is so they only late will unveal these reasons.

Your point B) for example - what DVP display doesn't say anything about what they may or might have else. It might be their information policy to display something to suggest that they are close in the hunt but not to display something else that is more ready or further developed than the displayed version (to prevent imitation by other teams, to prevent stealing etc.). Enterprises are acting like this sometimes - it's very tricky and hard to be recognized. And it's recommended by PR theories sometimes.

Concerning C) they said that a few days before that date there was adelay in delivery - it might mean that they were only days behind Scaled. I say "might" - again there may be facts we don't know behind that fact.

It might be that the intention of all this is to cause a special public image artificially - but there may be a failure in causing really that image they wanted.

It all may be policy and psychology - at Scaled's side it will be really.



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Post    Posted on: Wed Nov 03, 2004 5:35 pm
James asks,

"Is 13 weeks 'Still behind'? In a car race, a long way behind, in a 5 year project, not that far behind....I should know, I've been over a year late on 5 year projects....


I itemized in response to your comment that you would view 4-5 months as being just behind Scaled. I intended to point out that we are already beyond 4 months, with a minimum of 1.5 weeks additional for DVP to transport their gear and 7-day prep they have cited. But I actually think that if they do manage to get the balloon up, it will mark only the beginning of their flight test program. So I'd guess they are at least 1 year behind Scaled's space flight, if they are able to get it up at all.


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Post    Posted on: Wed Nov 03, 2004 5:52 pm
Ekehard,
You say....

"My point was that they didn't explain their reasons for their doing - so there is a lack of information about facts that are or work as reasons for their doing."

At your suggestion, I thought the discussion to be about fact, rather than speculation about 'reasons'.

You further say,

"It might be their information policy to display something to suggest that they are close in the hunt but not to display something else that is more ready or further developed than the displayed version "

I think this is extremely far-fetched. Are you suggesting that they had a more fully completed rocket at the time of their "Roll-Out", but chose to display the hollow shell instead?

And finally you say,

"Concerning C) they said that a few days before that date there was a delay in delivery - it might mean that they were only days behind Scaled. I say "might" - again there may be facts we don't know behind that fact."

The fact is that they are already 4.5 months behind Scaled. For someone who espouses an accurate and scientific perspective, your sentance is very strange. Are you familiar with the principle known as Occam's Razor? It's a supporting principle of the scientific method, which advocates straight-forward rather than convoluted thinking.

Cheers, /jd


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Post    Posted on: Wed Nov 03, 2004 6:34 pm
joel wrote:
At your suggestion, I thought the discussion to be about fact, rather than speculation about 'reasons'.


Didn't you get the memo?

You're only allowed to speculate about things favorable to DVP. If you'd like to develop a set of arguments why it's perfectly reasonable that they have not shown any evidence of progress -- post to your heart's content. However, it is forbidden to speculate in a public forum that Feeney and Friends might be a few thrusters short of a rocket.


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Post    Posted on: Wed Nov 03, 2004 9:05 pm
OK, SIr-Realist, or whoever the hell you are, here are my questions:

(1) Assuming Brian Feeney is no con-artist nor an incompetent boob,
how is he going to control the balloon's directional vector [balloons do twist from torque]
to keep the craft from aiming at [example] Saskatoon or some other undesirable target?

(2) LOX! LOX does boil away over a period of time. So it stands to reason that you know the ascent rate of the balloon, and have accounted for variables like ambient temperatures in the atmosphere, insulation thickness, etc., to keep a sufficent supply left in the 'Wildfire's' oxidizer tank prior to lighting the candle?...If not, why not?

(3) The X-Prize is over, why is Brian carrying on his project now?


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