Where do Brazilians go to space from here?

On August 22, 2003, Brazil's government space program lost more people in one explosion than the US lost in its three space program disasters. 21 engineers and technicians died when the $6 million rocket burst into flames because of a mysterious booster engine malfunction. Brazil lost incalculable brain power with the deaths of some of the space program's most seasoned workers as they made final launch preparations.

Is this the time for Brazil to privatize their space program? Should Brazilians consider suborbital flight before orbital flight?

Keep in mind the following:
1. Brazil has lost most of its orbital experience in the explosion.
2. Brazil successfully privatized its commercial aircraft company, EMBRAER, and is now the fourth largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. By personal experience, its Engineering staff is world class.
3. Brazil's equitorial location of its launch facilities would be perfect for a privatized spaceport. Contracting with North American or European space engineering companies would be a win-win for all involved.

We need to mount a GLOBAL TRANS NATIONAL ASSAULT on the technology of spaceflight. Brazil's tragic setback is a sad cost of doing the work required to move in to the orbital rocket launch arena. I am sure we all agree it is a terrible price to pay for progress but we must continue none the less. If the accident on 39A had stopped the US program where would we be today... not on the moon.. or even in LEO.
The next smartest guys will take their place and build on the stellar contributions of those who came before.. eclipse and make their own mark in the Brazilian quest for the stars.. So it has always been.. we stand on the shoulders of giants..
Canada mourns their loss.
Stan Bernard
Edmonton Alberta Canada

http://www.livingthelifeofholly.com

Brazil's space agency's biggest problem now is Congress, not just accidents. Brazil's remarcable aerospace record stems from pride. As a student on geopolitics and international relations I can tell you Brazil's nationalism is the driving force of their industrialization, technology and diplomacy that are extraordinary for Latin America. The downside is that sometimes politicians are excesivily proud. Their space agency lacks financial resources and manpower. Embraer and the rest of the public sector gobles up almost all of their aerospace engenieers (a lot of CEOs of Corporate Brazil are aerospace engeneers, even in non aerospace sectors, like phone companies). This worsens the loss of life as their are running short of engeneers. So money is the big issue here.

The solution was to allow the US to launch rockets from the Alcantara Spaceport. The plus was that other clients (Arianespace) were waiting for a successful launch in Brazil by the US before becoming clients themselves. The US had the cash in hand but had political conditions: to not use the money in Brazil's satelites (to not help the competition) an to be able to launch military hardware without telling the locals any details. That infuriated Congress and they vetoed the deal.

It was a mistake, Brazil needs the US, the US likes but does not need Alcantara. Brazil has succeded in all aerospace efforts cooperating with the US. Their aerospace engeneering academy was financed by the US (with MIT teachers) to thank Brazil's help in World War II. (The Volta Redondo hydrelectric proyect was also financed by the US after WWII, that enabled Brazil's industrial miracle in the 70s. That also might explian Brazil's troops now stationed in Haiti. The WWII precedent was good.) Embraer hated the US because they sabotaged a Tucano aircraft sale to Canada (and the really hate Canada's Bombardier due to this contract and the WTO dispute over subsidiated regional jets) but now they are opening a military aircraft factory in Florida with Jeb Bush's support. They aim at the Homeland Security/Counterinsurgency market and already have sold SIVAM sistem planes to México (paid by the US) and Greece. And might sell SIVAM data to Colombia (paid by the US).
Brazil instead opted for a tech cooperation deal with an exsoviet republic (maybe Ucraine, don't remember) it's just not enought. The only real option is a deal with Russia if they buy Sukhoi jet fighters (the Russians also what Avibras to build missiles and want Embraer jets, so it's compelling).

Brazil's space program has promise, but they can't do it alone.
An option would be an X-Prize team launch service, maybe Romania's ARCA as they have lots of problems with their launch site (closed for winter). But it might not be enought. They could buy off the shelf a rocket, like the Canadian Arrow and build up from there (but Canada and Brazil don't seem to mix well due to the jet controversy). It's nice to see a Canadian post nice stuff about Brazil. Looks like the love of Space can unite earthly differences!

The Alcantara tradgedy was very saddening. I wonder if Israel and Ukraine will still go ahead with their plans to launch from there.

The VLS launcher wasn't really a bad idea, if Brazil wanted to assure it had domestic launch capability, though on the international market now, SpaceX can beat it at cost. 380kg to LEO for $8,000,000 is just not very good when SpaceX can double the payload and launch for far less money. I would imageine after this many failures that VLS, as it existed, is finished.

I don't know what the Brazilians will do now. Their existing agreements to get technology from abroad from Ukraine don't seem to work to well. The possible agreement with the Russians is more promising.

Knowing Brazilians (and at FIDAE airshows I've met bunches) whatever they try should be big. Latinamericans laugh at the idea of a brazilian space agency, but these guys are first world when it comes to airplane manufacture, rocket artillery and the automobile industry. They got perseverance and vision. It's all geopolitics to them. They really, really whant to be the "Country of the Future". The "Order and Progress" moto on their flag is not for show. They have a national psicological need to show they can succesfully accomplish complex goals. They inherited that from the ideal of a "civilization building" Portuguese Empire. They whant to conquer the Amazon frontier, clean up the Favelas and be a world or regional power.

President Lula has taken a personal interest in aerospace, and the situation of EMBRAER and their fighter adquisition was a big campaign issue. Everybody bet on France, but Lula delayed everithing to get a better deal. The Russian's offer is good and whould also help them with launching rockets. I'll try to get more info on their proyects, but it's slow as I don't read portuguese. In the mean time some links:

Brazil's space agency
http://www.aeb.gov.br

Brazil's space investigation institute
http://www.inpe.br/

Alcantara base site
http://www.cla.aer.mil.br/

The SIVAM Amazon vigilance sistem, a big achivement for Brazil's aerospace sector. AWACS planes sold to Mexico, Greece. SIVAM info sold to Colombia.
http://www.sivam.gov.br/INDEX.HTM

Brazilian-Chinesee satelite program (includes version in English)
http://www.cbers.inpe.br

I could not get a link to Avibras, the big Brzilian rocket factory.