Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?

From their current launch manifest:


That's 1 FH, 3 or more F9. Assuming each rocket spends a maximum of 6 months on the pad and they all arrive on the pad within 2012, there should be 4 or more launches before July 01 2013.

Will they make it?

Preliminary results are in:

NASA 1: success
ORBCOMM 1 (piggyback): failure
NASA 2: still on manifest for 2012
MDA: pushed back until 2013
FH: pushed back until 2013

So "4 or more" has been reduced to "probably only 2". I'm not surprised or worried, but I wonder what it'll mean for the future.

Number of completed flights:
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 2
2009: 1
2010: 2
2011: 0
2012: 2

Number of planned flights:
2012: 1
2013: 7
2014: 10
2015: 15

Looks like an optimistic schedule. I look forward to the day they launch one rocket every month :)

Yep. It's interesting that both of Musks primary ventures are faced with the same problem at the moment: they've got the technology, they've got a product that people want, but they have to scale up production big time in order to really capitalise on those things. It's all about execution now, and there's a difference between scaling up a manufacturing plant and an Internet company. Can Musk do it? We'll know more in a year or so...