Page 1 of 1 |
[ 8 posts ] |
Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?
Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?
Author | Message |
---|---|
Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:45 pm
Posts: 156 ![]() |
From their current launch manifest:
Code: NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 1 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 2 2012 F9/Dragon Cape Canaveral MDA Corp. (Canada) 2012 Falcon 9 Vandenberg ORBCOMM - Multiple Flights 2012-2014 Multiple Cape Canaveral Falcon Heavy Demo Flight 2012 Falcon Heavy Vandenberg That's 1 FH, 3 or more F9. Assuming each rocket spends a maximum of 6 months on the pad and they all arrive on the pad within 2012, there should be 4 or more launches before July 01 2013. Will they make it? |
Back to top |
![]() |
Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:45 pm
Posts: 156 ![]() |
Preliminary results are in:
NASA 1: success ORBCOMM 1 (piggyback): failure NASA 2: still on manifest for 2012 MDA: pushed back until 2013 FH: pushed back until 2013 So "4 or more" has been reduced to "probably only 2". I'm not surprised or worried, but I wonder what it'll mean for the future. Number of completed flights: 2006: 1 2007: 1 2008: 2 2009: 1 2010: 2 2011: 0 2012: 2 Number of planned flights: 2012: 1 2013: 7 2014: 10 2015: 15 Looks like an optimistic schedule. I look forward to the day they launch one rocket every month :) |
Back to top |
![]() |
Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 707 Location: Haarlem, The Netherlands ![]() |
Yep. It's interesting that both of Musks primary ventures are faced with the same problem at the moment: they've got the technology, they've got a product that people want, but they have to scale up production big time in order to really capitalise on those things. It's all about execution now, and there's a difference between scaling up a manufacturing plant and an Internet company. Can Musk do it? We'll know more in a year or so...
_________________ Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhere What is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphere Machinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus |
Back to top |
![]() |
Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:45 pm
Posts: 156 ![]() |
July 1 has come and gone, final number is 2.
Updated numbers (delta in parentheses): Number of completed flights: 2006: 1 2007: 1 2008: 2 2009: 1 2010: 2 2011: 0 2012: 2 2013: 1 (+1) Number of planned flights: 2012: 0 (-1) 2013: 5 (-2) 2014: 12 (+2) 2015: 15 2016: 6 2017: 2 One launch completed, two launches pushed back. I think 5 more rockets rolled out in 2013 is optimistic as usual. More flights will be pushed back to 2014, and when 2014 comes with its >12 launches they will have to push everything back because 12 launches in 2014 sounds very optimistic. Falcon Heavy demo flight has been pushed back to 2014. I wonder if they did that to prioritize paying customers or if the delay is caused by FH itself? |
Back to top |
![]() |
Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:45 pm
Posts: 156 ![]() |
As far as I can tell, Cassiope wasn't on the manifest. So now we have 2 completed launches in 2013, and still 5 on the manifest.
|
Back to top |
![]() |
Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:45 pm
Posts: 156 ![]() |
New manifest numbers while we wait for the SES launch:
2013: 4 (-1) 2014: 12 2015: 15 2016: 6 2017: 3 (+1) 2018: 1 (+1) So my prediction is already coming true. 1 launch pushed back to 2014 already, and the launches after it also pushed back because 2014 is already crowded. |
Back to top |
![]() |
Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2010 2:21 pm
Posts: 547 Location: B.O.A. UK ![]() |
And here is link to their webcast page http://www.spacex.com/webcast/
about hour and 25 mins to go from posting _________________ Someone has to tilt at windmills. So that we know what to do when the real giants come!!!! |
Back to top |
![]() ![]() |
Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:45 pm
Posts: 156 ![]() |
I just had a new look at the manifest. Here's the new and the delta:
Number of completed flights: 2006: 1 2007: 1 2008: 2 2009: 1 2010: 2 2011: 0 2012: 2 2013: 4 (+3) Sum: 13 Number of planned flights: 2013: 0 (-4) 2014: 14 (+2) 2015: 15 2016: 6 2017: 3 2018: 1 Sum: 39 A total of 4 missions were completed in 2013, of a planned 7. We're already 1/4 into 2014 with 0 launches yet. If they're going to reach the target of 14, they'd better hurry up. My prediction is they will miss their mark by a lot as usual. I guess they will up the pace from the 4 last year to maybe 6 this year, and the rest will be pushed back. Whenever they finally manage to launch every month or more, they'll have a huge backlog of delayed launches. |
Back to top |
![]() |
![]() ![]() |
Page 1 of 1 |
[ 8 posts ] |
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests |