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Will the prize be won?

Posted by: Ben - Fri Dec 05, 2008 1:49 am
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Will the prize be won? 

Will N-Prizes be won by 19 September 2011 with the rules functionally equivalent to what they are now, including the current cost requirements?
Neither will be won. 39%  39%  [ 13 ]
The reusable prize will be won, but not the single spend. 12%  12%  [ 4 ]
The single spend will be won, but not the reusable. 12%  12%  [ 4 ]
Both prizes will be won. 36%  36%  [ 12 ]
Total votes : 33

Will the prize be won? 
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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Thu Sep 29, 2011 3:51 pm
You may want to check the total mass of a Q-N rocket against the lift of your 170,000 cubic-foot balloon. I don't believe you'll be able to reach 100,000 feet with that combination. The motors with propellant will have a mass of about 100 Kg. If I add an extra 20 Kg for everything else I compute a balloon altitude of about 89,000. That's still pretty good, but the air is 2.6 times denser than at 100,000 feet.

Good to hear you're considing a NSE mission with everything except the motor. That will allow you to check out everything except the rocket itself. It seems like someone suggested that about a year ago. lol :D

BTW, I think you meant that you were a polymath. The word "polymathic" is the adjective form. It has nothing to do with whether you are event oriented or not. I would equate an event oriented approach with the scientific method.


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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:07 pm
I don't even want to read that last bit of Monroe vs Dave thread... maybe after work. But a few thoughts:

a) when I use "you" in the context of a post like that one it is intended as a generic identifier referring to someone trying to do something.

b) ANEI I think has actually had a fairly appreciable amount of success with fundraising (I'm thinking of that round you got at Ames), and a lot of that is due to the lack of fluff and the lack of build-it-they-will-come attitude. we could quibble about whether it's all been spent optimally however optimally spending your funding round is almost impossible, and also I don't have any right to criticize since I wasn't fully onboard then.

c) you're absolutely right Monroe that I haven't raised a funding round myself for myself. however, I have seen a lot of people "fail" to do so, and a few who were/are successful. I work with some top notch investors/executives day to day and you can tell who they are almost immediately.

d) a great example of a crazy company with a bad pitch is TGV rockets. it's just a bunch of DC-X guys who were like "we can build great liquid rockets fund our spaceship" and never really made a market proposition.

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:11 pm
I used Polimathic because I is the word I was describing. That's how I see it. The reason I'm considering the launch without the motor is I want to do something rather than nothing soon. I figure about what you do with the launch altitude for the space shot 70-80 kft the Q should make up the difference and fins will be somewhat effective at that altitude so we will use them.
It will be rather like an Aerobee 170 launched at that altitude. I was down with illness for several days I'm looking forward to getting back to work tomorrow.
I do want investors the kind I want will profit but they have to be willing to work and wait like I do. I'm not counting on them however and we will get by without them. The most I would accept from an investor is $250,000 and I'd rather have more guy's with $25,000 willing to do work. A good worker without cash is worth $25,000 to me for a year and would get as much stock as a fella that invested 25k.
I'd say your looking at 5 years for a return on that investment and a chance to make history.
There is no MARKET for small sats to speak of we are going to have to create one by providing a service and we all take the risk there may be no market for them in 5 years.
It may take us another 2 years to get appealing enough to attract decent investors but by then we wont need them.
Marc Dixon told me he could raise $200M for the Matagorda project and I had to tell him no. He thought I was nuts but I know what that kind of money would do to the company rather than for the company. We don't need that kind of money.
I'm feeling much better today! I was way to talkative lately but I've been cooped up for several days looking forward to tomorrow. Enjoy yourselves while you can.
I gotta go!

Monroe

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:41 pm
Yea that $200M matagorda thing.. I wonder how serious that ever was, but that was crazy for the stage it was at - and still for where it is now. it's very reasonable amount for a real launch complex but only after a launcher exists. matagorda is a beautifully appropriate place for a smallsat launch complex, it would be cool to build a full situation servicing ~100kG and under payloads there.

I think the smallsat market as is can support ~1M-10M of launches a year at full scale, but it's pretty undeniable that whoever builds the first good launcher for 20kG class payloads will be stuck with a pretty big responsibility for creating market and value for satellites of that scale. the science community can only supply so much volume.

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:38 pm
Dave
Just how many people do you know that are true Polymaths that are event oriented? Anyway it's not important. I'll post some progress with the Q motor on the Facebook page tomorrow. Too much talk not enough action.

Monroe

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Fri Sep 30, 2011 3:00 pm
Monroe wrote:
Just how many people do you know that are true Polymaths that are event oriented?

I don't really want to go off on a tangent and discuss the attributes of a polymath. However, since you asked me a direct question I feel compelled to answer it. Leonardo da Vinci is considered to have been a polymath. He also followed a scientific approach in everything he did. So in that respect, he was event oriented. I'm having some problems answering your question because I don't know exectly what you mean by "event oriented". I am inferring that to mean "goal oriented", but maybe you mean something else.

Personally, I am not acquainted with anyone that I would consider a polymath. A polymath is generally considered to be a genius, and excels in multiple fields of expertise. Some people view Isaac Newton as a polymath, but others do not. Albert Einstein is not generally considered to be a polymath.


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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Fri Sep 30, 2011 4:39 pm
I think he means that he's someone who cares more about having a process that is working in the right direction, than about having immediate good results, the idea being that if you're working in the right direction and in the right way, the results will follow. By analogy: If you have a band consisting of very good musicians, then it doesn't matter if the first couple of singles don't become hits; sooner or later you'll get your big break.

Personally, I think you need both: results to keep people motivated and investors interested, processes to make sure you can keep going and have long-term success.

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Sat Oct 01, 2011 2:56 am
I'm not trying to ring my own bell so I'll drop that. It's not important anyway. But the things we are trying to do will end up a work of art in form and function if we are going to get the job done.
Paint a picture of a launch facility with all the trimmings managed on a low budget with functional results in every respect. Then a launcher with the same functionality. None of it pretty or elegant but truly functional.
Think about the time it took to repair the boats and the trucks and the trailers the loader and an old crane. Think about building an aircraft that performs it's job.
Put together a guidance system based on a hobby UAV and cobble together a radar system from old military junk and make it all work in unison. Be the leader and get the job done. Take all the knocks and the sneers the whole way. Do your best to get people you need to help you under those conditions.
Work on the sea in the air and on the ground pounding out the last dime you need to get the job done. Do it in a broken down Chevy truck you have resurrected from the desert that breaks down on your way home with $50 bucks (more than once) half way across the country. Ride a bus 50 hours one way with a fat man.
Live in a camper for a while just to save money for rocket stuff. Enjoy a few moments doing a launch or two that matter. Endure fire, wind and rain in marginal shelter on a deserted island to protect your gear your boat and your home.
Work like a slave in a sweat shop with no light to less than a thousandths tolerance and an asshole redneck boss to make a few more dollars to fund your efforts. Add to this getting mugged and loosing your laptop with a years worth of research at a bus stop and all the other things I left out.
Then find the time to justify your actions to some guy on the internet. Then after all that maintain a good attitude and be nice to everyone.
You know I lived in that tiny shop at the band Co-op having to put up with lousy musicians playing all hours of the night! For a year and a half! My poor ol friend Basil just could not hang with all the technology flying around after 0ver 30 years of being friends. He still looks at me funny like I'm some kind of wizard playing with unknown forces.
I'm about half way to seeing the process threw I need to get down to the coast and check on everything. Oh and by the way make that trip on a motorcycle 5 hours (one way) twice a month to save fuel. Because both boats have twin engines and gusle gas. I need a plane!
Be sure you tell me what I need to do next Dave. lol Your really helping me out. Besides that I don't have any problems with my personal life ether. I'm still standing here waiting on your next debacle.


Monroe

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Sat Oct 01, 2011 8:54 pm
Monroe wrote:
Be sure you tell me what I need to do next Dave.

Monroe, I can't think of anything I could suggest that would make a difference in the way you're doing things. I'll just be content to follow your progress.


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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Sat Oct 01, 2011 10:21 pm
Thank you.
It's hard enough to make progress. Nobody cheers for the good things happening unless it's a rocket or a balloon launch.

Monroe

Dissect the post launch if you must be critical. If something goes wrong, then we could use the help. Nothing's going wrong right now. If something goes wrong then you can prove how smart you are. We might listen.

I definitely do not want any Pre-Launch input. I'm pretty sure we can handle that part.

It's totally useless and non productive if I had a need for it I'd ask on Arocket.

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Mon Oct 31, 2011 8:40 am
Quote:
We may do a NSE mission with the rockoon without a motor and test only the ignition, tracking and recovery if the burn bans don't lift soon. We could do that any day.


Quote:
Good to hear you're considing a NSE mission with everything except the motor. That will allow you to check out everything except the rocket itself. It seems like someone suggested that about a year ago.


Actually, Monroe and I had planned to do that more than a year ago and to have done a space shot (sub-orbital) this past spring as I recall.

Rick


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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:32 am
Yes, We could have done it a year ago )the space shot) but the funding I was to get in California never appeared. I was lied to in other words to forward someone elce's project. But it did not matter I made progress anyway.
We are setting up for a launch into space in March 2012 if we do that and we get some funding from the space shot and some more interest. We can still do the N-Prize. We are carrying on as if and are planning for an attempt near the deadline. We will file paperwork with the FAA and go threw the motions anyway because if we get some money we can still do it.
If we win the Carmack Micro Challenge with the space shot it might also give us a boost. Or an influx of help either way Team Prometheus will go on.

Monroe

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Sun Nov 06, 2011 8:43 am
I recall planning an igniter and avionics test for NSE-6 for last fall with a follow up small rocket launch for NSE-7 last winter and a sub-orbital shot for NSE-8 early this year so we would have time to try for the N-Prize by summer but all that got changed so it really doesn't matter.

We were out at the FAR site today http://www.friendsofamateurrocketry.org/

We tested a new propellant that solves many of the problems we were having with the sorbitol propellant. Also discussed starting our own aerospace corporation since we have some ideas for both suborbital and LEO that would bring down the costs for both to tens of thousands of dollars plus two financial backers...do I really want to work full time agin?

Rick


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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Sun Nov 06, 2011 11:41 am
Heck yeah! What do you mean? Go for it!

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Post Re: Will the prize be won?   Posted on: Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:38 pm
Monroe wrote:
We are setting up for a launch into space in March 2012 if we do that and we get some funding from the space shot and some more interest. We can still do the N-Prize. We are carrying on as if and are planning for an attempt near the deadline. We will file paperwork with the FAA and go threw the motions anyway because if we get some money we can still do it.
If we win the Carmack Micro Challenge with the space shot it might also give us a boost.

Monroe, are you still on track for a space launch in 2 months? It's been a while since you posted here, so I'm wondering how things are going.


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