Will the prize be won?

Two-thirds of the people that responded to this poll think that at least one of the prizes will be won. However, there are less than 7 months till the deadline, and none of the teams appear to be even close to winning this. I'm curious if the 13 people that voted for at least one of the prizes to be won still feel that way.

If you think at least one of the prizes will be won, who do you think will win it, and why?

I dont think there will be a winner now, always a chance though

I'm not giving up! If this 100kft launch goes well and we get the $9000 Carmack Prize we just might make it. Still time to file with the FAA for about 3 months. If we get close Dr. Dear may extend the time.

Monroe

Yes, it almost goes without saying that any team that thinks it can win the N-Prize must be able to achieve the goals of the Carmack prize very soon. If you can't send a rocket up 100k feet then it is not possible to put a 10 gram object into orbit, which is probably 2 orders of magnitude harder.

I would expect that any team that thinks it will win the N-Prize would win the Carmack prize within the next two months. If they don't win the Carmack prize by May 1st it is unlikely they can achieve the next step of a suborbital space flight, and then ultimately achieving the N-Prize goals by the deadline.

I think the Carmack Prize is to require use of GPS to report altitude. Difficult and expensive. Special recievers must be used and the history of maintaining lock is poor. GPS may be more difficult than the rest of the rocket.

Also, Paul Breed is contributing part of the prize money. Last I heard it was $5000 Carmack, $2000 Breed. Paul's blog Unreasonable Rocket, may clear that up.

As for N Prize, it will be too bad if none gets to try, and no extension has been hinted at, so it must be assumed there will not be one.

Microlaunchers has not gotten started with hardware because still not enough funds and the move to Las Vegas is taking more time, effort than I thought.

I will still be looking for south Nevada area interested participants for N Prize, or the NASA Challenge (1 kg orbit twice in a week, for $2 million prize). The larger prize may help find participants.

My plan will still be to plan a production of ~100 launchers, use leftovers as Cubesat launch service.

An escape capable version with just enough payload for the laser data link would be tested, also.

I am still designing both an N Prize and Cubesat launcher version, and in my 1000 sq foot apartment, 2/3 of space is for office, electronic workbench etc. The guidance, laser link, some other small components can be developed before a shop space is leased.

There have been a couple of other donation to the Carmack prize, and I think it's up to $9k now.

You're crazy if you think you can get to orbit on a MEMS IMU alone. They've been repeatedly shown to dislike the vibrational environment of a rocket. A GPS is a cheap and easy way to correct a cheap IMU, which is why everyone does that. A high quality IMU that wouldn't need GPS is quite a few multiples of the mass of the N Prize payload.

The GPS is by definitely not the most complicated part of a suborbital rocket, let alone an orbital rocket.

Holding lock in a solid is iffy, but liquids have no problem with it as they typically don't launch at high G.

@James, the last I heard it was at $10,000. I'm still trying to join the ARocket list, but I haven't gotten a response from them. Does anybody have a good contact address for the ARocket list administrator?

@ckpooley, I don't know how to respond to your post. Some of it doesn't make much sense. GPS receivers are used all the time in high altitude balloons and rockets. You do need to use ones that work at high altitudes, and they will lose track during periods of high motion. However, they are not that difficult or expensive.

It is too bad that it appears that no one will win the N-Prize, but it's not because "none gets to try". It's probably more that the requirements are too restrictive, and the prize amount is too low for the effort.

I don't understand your "plan". You present some ambitious goals, but I don't see anything to back it up. Unfortunately, that seems to be the case with all of the N-Prize participants.

Ben:

no IMU. ones accurate enough and vibration proof are too expensive.
Also too heavy. The guidance method is mentioned in slide 6 of the N Prize presentation on my site.

The angular position is to be controlled with a horizon sensor, and daylight launch. That is accurate enough. The accelerometers will be calibrated with a small centrifuge to 1 part in 10k. good enough for LEO.

For escape, a course adjustment would be done in the 1st day out or so.

No GPS needed. Only use for GPS is to locate, confirm launch point. In Black Rock for 1st stage tests using amateur regs, near east coast or at sea for space launch.

does the carmack prize specifically state that you have to use GPS to verify? would a measure of horizon curvature taken from a photograph be sufficient? alternatively a radar reading or whatever else you can use to get an altitude measurement? i don't know how relevant the difference is, but i know monroe's rocket does all of its acceleration in the first 4 seconds and i can't see how a small GPS could possibly hold a lock through that.

i'm a little bit out of the loop, but i'm definitely going to texas to hang out with Prometheus if they go through with this!

Better get you a ticket I just filed for the waiver. We are going to do the Carmack prize that's for sure. Shooting for May 10th this year. I don't have time to chat much about it I'm busy doing it.

Monroe

Monroe,

Have you run a simulation on that Q motor? If I recall correctly, it has an impulse slightly higher than a full P, so I ran a simulation with an impulse of 50,000 N*s and an ISP of 140. I used a diameter of 150mm, and I get an altitude of 36,000 feet with the optimal mass fraction. A 7-mile flight would certainly be nice, but it falls short of the 100,000 feet required for the prize.

Dave

Monroe,

I saw on your FaceBook page that you've added a second stage to the rocket. If you want, post the details about the first and second stages, and I'll run it through the simulator to determine the optimal time for second-stage ignition.

Dave

Dave
What we need most right now and right away is a dispersion analysis to get the approval from the FAA. There are things about the launch I cannot discuss in public until we have the approval from the FAA. The time table on this project is immediate. We can discuss them in person if you like at the new shop.
Things have changed a lot lately.

Monroe

The "Q" is 96,000 Ns to an "N" N2000W-P Aerotec.

Monroe