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Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon

Posted by: beancounter - Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:58 am
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Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon 

2nd F9 / 1st Dragon Flight will be:
LV successful to Orbit. 34%  34%  [ 17 ]
LV fails to achieve Orbit. 2%  2%  [ 1 ]
Dragon fails on-orbit objectives and fails EDL. 4%  4%  [ 2 ]
Dragon fails on-orbit objectives but somehow manages EDL. 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Dragon meets on-orbit objectives and fails EDL. 12%  12%  [ 6 ]
Dragon completes both on orbit and EDL objectives. 48%  48%  [ 24 ]
Total votes : 50

Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon 
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Space Walker
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Post Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:58 am
Second Flight of F9 together with 1st operational Dragon.

Since I think we're only a couple of months or so away from a launch, it's time for a poll on the outcome. There's probably as much riding on this launch as the previous one (no perhaps not quite as much) as Congress still hasn't agreed on funding either NASA or Commercial so the outcome could still perhaps influence Congress to some extent.

I've split out the launch vehicle from Dragon since a failure of the lv would not necessarily mean that the Dragon vehicle failed, only that it couldn't be tested.
This also allows for those of us who believe the first lv success was a fluke :!:

PS This is the first poll I've tried to construct so be gentle please :wink:

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Wed Aug 18, 2010 9:36 am
I've voted for a full success of both F9 and Dragon because I don't believe that either will "fail", although I do believe (and actually hope) that they will uncover some problems with Dragon on Orbit, so it won't be a flawless picturebook flight.

Tests are done to learn something new after all. ;)

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Fri Aug 20, 2010 12:00 am
i'm not going to make a prediction...

there's always a chance the LV will fail... there's absolutely no way they're gonna get through all of COTS without a failure unless by some miracle elon is clairvoyant about all the failure modes.

i think there's no "good" reason why dragon should have any problems. the big if to me is re-entry simply since it's the most demanding thing with something like that. also, docking is a tricky problem but they're not doing anything with it this flight. so, there's no reason dragon should have any problems unless there's a failure mode somehow associated to the launch vehicle.

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Fri Aug 20, 2010 3:35 am
TerraMrs wrote:
i'm not going to make a prediction...

there's always a chance the LV will fail... there's absolutely no way they're gonna get through all of COTS without a failure unless by some miracle elon is clairvoyant about all the failure modes.

i think there's no "good" reason why dragon should have any problems. the big if to me is re-entry simply since it's the most demanding thing with something like that. also, docking is a tricky problem but they're not doing anything with it this flight. so, there's no reason dragon should have any problems unless there's a failure mode somehow associated to the launch vehicle.


They had a few problems with their initial test flight. That said, they're obviously a smart bunch of cookies to get this far so I've voted for success all round. Can't see any logic or evidence for suggesting the LV will fail. They have quite an engine flight history together with redundant avionics, and so forth. Stage sep' could possibly fail but again seems well tested system.

EDL is pretty well known situation and SpaceX will have leveraged off NASA experience in this so shouldn't be a problem.

I voted full success. Hope I'm not disappointed.

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:48 pm
Full success with some minor unexpected problems/difficulties/defects (something akin to unexpectedly high roll rate on 1st launch of F9)


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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Thu Sep 02, 2010 3:01 am
COTS-C Demo1 flight now slated for NET 23rd October 2010

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Thu Sep 02, 2010 3:12 am
Bit late but latest update on the SpaceX page:

http://www.spacex.com/updates.php

Good to see they're one up again on 'old' space re: Orion parachute first test.

All the hardware's at the Cape and being integrated.

Cheers.

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:35 am
New updates on the 2nd flight:

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/002/100916wdr/


Inside SpaceX article:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1438

Cheers.

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:31 am
Thanks for the heads up! :)

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:25 am
New launch date NET 8th/9th November 2010.

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Wed Sep 29, 2010 3:09 pm
Elon himself is giving Dragon "a 50% chance of returning to Earth intact":

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1447

I voted full success though, because I'm an optimist. :)


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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:48 am
New update on the SpaceX website

http://www.spacex.com/updates.php

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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:05 pm
I have voted for 100% success purely as it is my hope it works, the sooner LEO & Near Earth man flight becomes commercial & everyday the sooner manned deep space exploration starts.

Dave


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Post Re: Poll - 2nd F9 Flight / 1st Operational Dragon   Posted on: Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:31 am
NET 18th November 2010 now.

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Post Launch Date   Posted on: Sat Nov 06, 2010 12:47 am
Bean Counter;

I lost the link to the launch calendar site.

Do you see any changes in SpaceX launch date after this latest Shuttle delay?

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