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next xprize competion.

Posted by: space - Mon Nov 17, 2003 8:15 pm
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next xprize competion. 
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Moon Mission Member
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Post    Posted on: Sat Jun 05, 2004 8:17 pm
n54 wrote:
ok then the outlook is fairly good, by 2006 i think at least the following will be ready (reasons in parantheses behind each team):
- scaled composites (almost ready as it is)
- starchaser (preparing final launches in testing)
- ARCA (recently did a full burn which was a worlds first for a composite material, reusable monopropellant rocket engine)
- canadian arrow (seems to be very comitted)
- armadillo (big if: if they still go for an x-prize type vehicle)

i'd like for others to share their assesments in a similar manner (i'm hoping i've missed something :wink:)


Rocketplane might be able to pull something off by then, and a regular competition will likely draw even more teams than the X Prize did: if they fail in one respect, they can still try to win in another or try again next year. Also, I don't think Armadillo's such a big if: I'm pretty sure that a regular competition along with some correspondence from the Foundation should keep Carmack interested enough to keep it up. But I'm not sure the vehicle requirements are the same for the Cup -- he might be able to drop it back to a one-man vehicle, add fuel, and go for altitude.

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Space Walker
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Post    Posted on: Sat Jun 05, 2004 11:13 pm
good points


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Post    Posted on: Sun Jun 06, 2004 5:16 pm
To propose other modifications:

XPRIZE2 should wait until a sufficient number of teams reached an altitude of 300 Km and seem able to approach further altitudes.

To win the prize, following conditions should be fulfilled:

1. Entering Orbit and terminating at least one Orbit. That should be sufficient proof of the ability of orbital flights.

2. Docking to spacecrafts together as a proof of service ability needed fpr delivery of food, water, atmosphere etc. The XPRIZE-Foundation itself could deliver a sealed big package, that has to be retrurned by the other spacecraft.

This ability is needed for long term duration in Orbit, becaus that might be required for transports of low cost satellites, extended tourism-flights and other services that could be done by private spacecrafts.

3. Refueling Propellant - that seem to be required for the next condition.

4. Changing orbits in altitude as well as between equatorial and polar orbits.

Any additional condition is too much.

That XPRIZE won a second cup would be an good idea.

Today I don't know, what conditions any third xprize could have - witk the ability of orbital flights private spacecrafts provide all abilities needed. The only thing would be somathing quite new: a spacecraft parked in space fpr ever. It could be waiting in some secure orbit, sinking to a low orbit to receive freight and astronauts and then launch from that orbit to some target orbit. Perhaps it can be sufficient to reach the Moon or Mars - excellent ideas provided (docking of many Spacecraft? serving as a private space station when not flying to Moon, Mars or target orbit?)



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

[quote="Dr_Keith_H"]You want a realistic X2-prize? ... the next step should be modest ...

I would propose just upping the altitude to something like 150-200 km (still suborbital) ... and that's all ... it's something that would require somebody like Rutan to pay attention to dealing with higher temperatures on re-entry and other strains associated with higher-speed collision with an atmosphere. Re-entry from up there would be very tough for the current design of SS1.

This would also give other players like Armadillo a chance to catch up, I do NOT want to see any of these guys give up their work and walk away.

An X2-prize for getting into orbit and back twice in two weeks? You guys are talking about the X3- or X4-prize. Consider what it takes to de-orbit, go and read up about it ... really, go check it out. I aint yo momma.[/quote]


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Post    Posted on: Sun Jun 06, 2004 5:23 pm
Some teams plan to start from a balloon flying in altitudes between 10 and 25 Km - such balloons are easy to install whrever neede - in comparison to provide an White Knight needed for a launch of scaled composites SpaceShipOne: here is a competional advantage at the markets. Others plan to launch from water and to be able of landings on land as well as on water - these are much more flexible concerning the location of launches.

May be, the concepts of one team can be combined with the concepts of another.

We are talking about a great und unnumbered innovations, improvements etc.



Diplom-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

[quote="n54"]that's all well and good, but why should the teams have to travel to new mexico to do any of this? that's my point mainly as i'm a bit unsure about the benefits of such an event in a single location as opposed to keeping it more global (as the ansari x-prize was/is)

i'm not sure what the costs would be but remember than many of the teams have designs that require a lot of specialized infrastructure (and i'm willing to bet that for example canadian arrow and starchaser require different launch towers)

ok, so starchaser is already planning on moving big stuff to australia for their launch (and they'll probably stay there - does anyone know their future launch planning?), but i'll continue to be a bit sceptical even though it's nice to hear that intercontinental sub-orbital flight is at least mentioned in the x-cup

back to the question on the number of teams ready for an x-cup event next year: i just realized that the number probably would be zero!

after all scaled and rutan has said they're planning on using a year for indepth testing (overall cost analysis for operating the vehicles with weekly launches for a year) and i'm not sure if participating in a x-cup arrangement fits that[/quote]


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Post    Posted on: Sun Jun 06, 2004 6:34 pm
there are suitable airports and runways everywhere the ss1 has a market.

and i'm convinced wk/ss1 has the most flexible launch window as well as launch site of all the designs

weather conditions affect all but imo they affect baloons (think wind, and even ice) and ground/sea launches a lot more than an airplane release at 46,000 feet/14+ kilometers (or higher)

launch sites can be much more flexible at a short notice for wk/ss1 than any of the other designs, and in general ss1 can be released anywhere while land launches need to stay on land and sea launches at sea. baloons can be more flexible than land or sea but they still have to follow wherever the wind blows them - white knight is more flexible and offer far more control.

both land, sea and baloon launches needs to have their launch equipment with them at the launch site while white knight can be fuel up in one place travel to wherever it is going to launch from, be refueled if necessary and then climb to the launch altitude/location for release of the ss1


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Post    Posted on: Mon Jun 07, 2004 6:09 am
I'm - like you - convinced of the Wight Knight/SpaceShipOne-concept, but I suppose the investments required for Wight Knight to be higher than those required for a balloon. And in the long run there will be needed at least one Wight Knight at each spaceport on all continents to gain optimal commercial success as soon as private spacecrafts are forced to survive at the markets. One day it will be so.

One of the balloon concepts plans an altitude of 25 Km for the balloon - in that altitude there is not much weather.

Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

[quote="n54"]there are suitable airports and runways everywhere the ss1 has a market.

and i'm convinced wk/ss1 has the most flexible launch window as well as launch site of all the designs

weather conditions affect all but imo they affect baloons (think wind, and even ice) and ground/sea launches a lot more than an airplane release at 46,000 feet/14+ kilometers (or higher)

launch sites can be much more flexible at a short notice for wk/ss1 than any of the other designs, and in general ss1 can be released anywhere while land launches need to stay on land and sea launches at sea. baloons can be more flexible than land or sea but they still have to follow wherever the wind blows them - white knight is more flexible and offer far more control.

both land, sea and baloon launches needs to have their launch equipment with them at the launch site while white knight can be fuel up in one place travel to wherever it is going to launch from, be refueled if necessary and then climb to the launch altitude/location for release of the ss1[/quote]


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Post    Posted on: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:08 pm
i agree on that

and don't get me wrong: all the different launch designs are interesting, scaleds method isn't the only way


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Post    Posted on: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:45 pm
Ekkehard Augustin wrote:
of the balloon concepts plans an altitude of 25 Km for the balloon - in that altitude there is not much weather.

Hi Ekkehard,
I thought n54 was referring to wind conditions at ground level when launching the balloon + rocket complex.

Speaking of balloon launches, I know of only one group that actually tried a launch ... anyone remember the the HAL5 (Huntsville Alabama L5) HALO (High Altitude Lift-Off) project?. After several years of losing track of them, I found their website ... eep, they have some sort of a connection with SS1 (what the hey? The link is broken, old ... but I bet it has something to do with the hybrid propulsion set up).

http://home.hiwaay.net/~hal5/HALO/index.shtml

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Post    Posted on: Mon Jun 07, 2004 2:44 pm
Dr_Keith_H wrote:
I thought n54 was referring to wind conditions at ground level when launching the balloon + rocket complex.

absolutely, ballons are "victims of wind" for a large part of their ascent

and btw another point is that the baloons we're talking about take up a lot of airspace so their launch sites (and flight paths) need to be well clear of congested airspace (at least it they're to be launched regularily)


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Post    Posted on: Tue Jun 08, 2004 7:45 am
For the first 1.000 to 3.000 meters you both are right - but some photographs seem to show, that the teams adopting balloon-concepts are prepared for wind and weather. The balloon allways seems to be able to move only a few meters over ground because there fixing and guiding connections to some points. But that may be a misinterpretation.

Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

[quote="n54"][quote="Dr_Keith_H"]I thought n54 was referring to wind conditions at ground level when launching the balloon + rocket complex.[/quote]
absolutely, ballons are "victims of wind" for a large part of their ascent

and btw another point is that the baloons we're talking about take up a lot of airspace so their launch sites (and flight paths) need to be well clear of congested airspace (at least it they're to be launched regularily)[/quote]


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Post    Posted on: Tue Jun 08, 2004 10:43 pm
Quote:
The jet streams may be several hundred miles across and 1-2 miles deep at an altitude of 8-12 miles. They generally move west to east, and are strongest in the winter with core wind speeds as high as 250 mph. Changes in the jet stream indicate changes in the motion of the atmosphere and weather.

from http://www.junction.net/norac/vbx/jet.htm

that's roughly between 13 and 19 km altitude


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Post    Posted on: Wed Jun 09, 2004 8:19 am
Yeah it does seem that balloons have their own special subset of difficulties, however it appears that they remain viable enough (i.e. the difficulties dont outweigh possible solutions) for continued exploration of their use.

(Yeah I know, this was a pretty empty post, I just wanted some excuse to ask Ekkehard if he could try to fix his quoting issues ... I wonder what is going wrong there? Sigurd, can you explain it? Or am I the only one seeing it?)

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Post    Posted on: Wed Jun 09, 2004 10:41 am
i agree Dr_Keith_H there are several good uses for such baloons imo and if nothing else for the sake of science (i'm not trying to beat baloons to death (lol sounds like an arduous task) just bring up their challenges).

and you're not the only one seeing the massive selfmade quotes of Ekkehard :D


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Post My massive quoting   Posted on: Wed Jun 09, 2004 11:53 am
My massive selfmade quotes are due to handling problems.

Concerning the balloons - there is a project the mars society is working on. It's called ARCHIMEDES and it's based on bringing a balloon into the martian atmosphere.

May be this project and the balloon-concepts of a few XPRIZE-teams provide the possibility of synergy effects. For example after success of the XPRIZE-teams they possibly modify their concept by using the same material etc. as ARCHIMEDES. On the other side a future mars mission uses the balloon concepts of the XPRIZE-teams to start from martian surface to a martian orbit.

That sounds strange I suppose - my focus was on the synergy only because it would be a positive effect of the XPRIZE on space mission in general.



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Post    Posted on: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:56 pm
aha! the word "synergy"! that's pretty rock solid proof you're some kind of economist as almost nobody else believes in synergy lol j/k (joking/kidding) :D

(i have myself experienced "synergy" in practice several times so i hope you take the joke)


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