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Will SpaceX's fourth attempt reach Orbit?

Posted by: Rob Goldsmith - Sat Aug 09, 2008 12:36 pm
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Will SpaceX's fourth attempt reach Orbit? 

Will SpaceX's fourth attempt reach Orbit?
100% success 52%  52%  [ 13 ]
Into orbit but with Problems 44%  44%  [ 11 ]
Officially to Space but not into orbit 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Won't make it to space 4%  4%  [ 1 ]
Won't make it off the pad 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 25

Will SpaceX's fourth attempt reach Orbit? 
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Post Will SpaceX's fourth attempt reach Orbit?   Posted on: Sat Aug 09, 2008 12:36 pm
Thought id see your thoughts now!

Doesnt take long to vote guys, so lets see if you believe the next attempt will make it!


Lets see ya thoughts!

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Last edited by Rob Goldsmith on Sat Jun 27, 2009 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Post    Posted on: Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:00 pm
I think that they will reach orbit, but then again I have thought that on the last 2 attempts which goes to show what I know. :)

I am actually less hopeful now and think that there is likely be problems.

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Post    Posted on: Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:29 pm
I'm in the same boat as Andy as being less hopeful.

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Post    Posted on: Sat Aug 09, 2008 3:54 pm
I think with each failed launch their chance of success on the next launch increases. I'm optimistic so I voted success, but I won't be surprised if I'm wrong.

I think launching a space rocket is like writing a computer program. Some errors will be apparent during design, some will reveal themselves during compilation/manufacture, some will be revealed by simulations and testing, and some will be so subtle that they only appear during actual use.

Once the program/rocket has been used a few times without problems, the chance of new problems revealing themselves becomes drastically smaller, and this is where a simple, robust design is important. The fewer possible sources of errors, the less likely something goes wrong.


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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:08 am
65 views now and the Fellowship crew seem to be very unsure YET still voting that it will get into space!

Come on the rest of ya!

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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 10, 2008 7:10 pm
My bet is that it won't be a 100% success, but I don't think (OK - hope!) that it won't be a complete failure. I'd have pushed the 95% success option if it was there :)


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Post    Posted on: Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:58 am
I've voted for the 100% success option.

Since the last failure on flight3 was caused by some overlooked differences between the Merlin 1A and 1C Engines, I highly doubt that SpaceX will allow something similar to happen again on flight4. If I remember correctly, then there won't be any new components on flight4, so I'm pretty confident, that they will make it this time!

To sum it up:
- No new components (no large unknowns)
- first stage has performed as expected on the last 2 flights.
- I think they have learned their lessons on the second stage from flight2 as well
- "Murphy" should be more than satisfied by now! There have been enough "small failures" on the way so far to calm him down. :wink:


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Post    Posted on: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:06 am
Rob Goldsmith wrote:
65 views now and the Fellowship crew seem to be very unsure YET still voting that it will get into space!


I'd bet there's a voting line between hoping they'll make it and believing...

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Post    Posted on: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:56 pm
I didn't vote yet. I think there is a very good chance that they will succeed since the cause of the recent failure was that small that there was nearly no chance to detect it by ground tests and measurements - the only chance to find it was the launch and flight.

In so far and because of an internal voice I tend to vote for success.

On the other hand I am not sure enough and become aware of the circumstance that I can't imagine if and what other problems undetectable on the ground might impact future launches and flights or be detected doing those flights.

In so far they are really a large step further to orbit. But the second stage did have no chance to prove reliability at the recent flight and Elon Musk himself also said that the failure prevented them from finding out if they have got rid of problems detected at the second flight.

But there is one interesting and relevant aspect - both in the recent and the second flight the second stage got no chance because it was hit or crashed by the first stage.

So successfully avoiding physical contact between the two stages may mean they succeed in the next flight.



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Post    Posted on: Thu Aug 21, 2008 3:06 am
Well I am just too impressed with SpaceX to vote anything but orbit. They just handle every setback with such grace and professionalism and determination that it blows me away! How they handle failure more than how they handle success is the true test of the character of a person or a company. Let these first 3 launches forever silence those who say space flight isn’t really so hard, requiring only money and the will to do it.


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Post    Posted on: Mon Sep 08, 2008 1:56 pm
Had to vote for success even though the little voice inside says that spaceflight is 'hard' and failure is 'easy'.
Each failure has resulted in lessons learned and even SS1 and WK1 had to fly many times in test before the real thing.

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Post    Posted on: Tue Sep 23, 2008 4:18 pm
Well, will it be today or won't it be?


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Post    Posted on: Tue Sep 23, 2008 4:21 pm
Hi Stefan,

In our time zone (Brussels Time), it is scheduled to be between 1pm-9pm Wednesday morning.

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Post    Posted on: Tue Sep 23, 2008 4:26 pm
post the info as you get it guys!

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Post    Posted on: Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:19 pm
It's delayed: Updated launch window estimate is now Sept 28th through Oct 1st

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