When do you think the X-Prize will be won?

I personally think it will be won around January 2004. Several teams, like Burt Rutan's Scaled Composites and the Canadian Arrow team, have announced plans to fly by the end of this year.

What do you think

Legislative mess definitely wont be cleared by the end of this year. They might fly test flights, but not X-prize attempts. Plus, X-prize rules say that any attempt to claim the prize will have to be announced three months in advance.

Don't forget that the American "legislative mess" doesn't apply to Canadian teams. Da Vinci already has a launch license, and Canadian Arrow is applying for one.

Meanwhile, Burt Rutan is applying for a launch license and expects to have it in hand by December, just in time for the flights.

Given the regulatory hurdles, I would expect da Vinci to make the first attempt.

While Da Vinci seems to be in a good position to make the first launch, I'm afraid that it will be tough for them to actually win the prize. This is because they must make two flights within a two-week period, and I've seen balloons like theirs go for months between launch windows.

I agree, the two week window adds some additional timing (including weather) issues. This is why I think it will be mid to late 2004 when the prize is won. I expect an attempt later this year, and maybe one in the Spring. I think Rhutan's methodical testing approach will position him such that when he makes the attempt, he'll have a good chance at getting both flights on his first try...though I think other teams will attempt prior to him in the hopes of everything going just right.

Hmmm, weather effects are a crucial aspect of the competition I haven't considered before.

It seems to me that the team most affected by weather is daVinci (since they use a balloon). All the ground-launched teams are moderately affected by weather. Rutan would have the easiest time, since air launching from 40000' avoids a lot of weather related effects (as the air-launched Pegasus orbital rocket has shown).

Conclusion? Rutan is looking even tougher to beat!

Personally I'm rooting for an American Team to win this prize and I hope there isn't a legal mess. They should grant the launch license on the fact that a non Amercian team could win if they don't!!

Hats off to all teams.... but go U.S.A all the way

I would like to see it won ASAP, but not at the cost of safety.