da Vinci launch date

this has already been in about 2 other posts, but good job trying.

Yeah... others where faster.. and it was already reported on:
http://x-prize.blogspot.com/ aritcle ( http://x-prize.blogspot.com/2004_04_01_x-prize_archive.html#108118846639765321 )

But anyway.. it's great news

(in this topic it was first posted as a reply: http://www.xprize.com/messageboard/viewtopic.php?t=61)

I'm Canadian, as if nationality matters in spaceflight.
[Can you see national borders, 100,000 miles from Earth, with your naked eye?]
Regardless of what nationality you are, you've got to admire
all X-Prize contestants, especially those who have actually built and tested
hardware.

Unfortunately!...There has to be both winners & losers in the X-Prize.

The Da Vinci Project will not win the X-Prize....You can take that to the bank.

FIRST: They're using a balloon to lift the rocket. Balloons have a bad habit
of tearing, or springing leaks.

SECOND: The Da Vinci Project is required by X-Prize rules to carry out TWO
successful flights from the same location to 100 kilometers altitude
within TWO WEEKS.

THIRD: X-Prize rules require contestants to lift-off and land NEAR the same
spot. Forget using balloons for that...Winds have a bad habit of blowing
balloons miles and tens of miles off course.

FOURTH: Scaled Composites will within a couple of weeks rocket up to over thirty miles [48km]. Third powered-flight for Rutan's baby. And if all goes
well, Scaled Composites will launch their rocket-plane to over 100 kilometers
sometime in June. Then, with passengers, they could repeat this in early- July. The X-Prize is Burt Rutan's for the taking.

FIFTH: Even if Burt Rutan's rocket-plane encounters a setback, he will
still take the X-Prize this summer because the Da Vinci Project has too many
failure potentials [balloon, winds, storms, rocket-motor, fuel-pump, etc...],
and any success has to be REPEATED within two weeks. Highly unlikely.


But!...At least the Da Vinci Project MAY have a chance to set an
'amateur' manned spaceflight altitude record [120 kilometers: 75 miles up].

Cheers.

Jacob

Jacob,

You might take a look at what JP Aerospace has been doing lately with REALLY big balloons. I absolutely believe that rockoons will be one of the key technologies that lower the cost to space access. Here are my thoughts.

Balloons make an extremely cheap first stage. Essentially its a free ride to 100,000 feet. Not bad.

Balloons afford a relatively gentle ride up to serious altitude for paying customers. Lets face it: a suborbital ballistic hop can only offer a few minutes of weightlessness in "space". However, the view from 100,000 feet or so is amazing, as is borne out most recently from photos of Scaled's flight 13P at azimuth.

Balloons can be patched and reused over and over. They can also make a very good platform for orbital launches. Once again, you get a "free" first stage.

I don't know what to think of DaVinci at this point, due to their announcement of a launch date and then a failure to offer a public correction. That was bad form, IMHO, but their idea is sound, and could lead to a more cost effective model for space tourism. We all want to go up there, and the cheaper the better. Personally, if I pay my ticket one day for a suborbital trip, I'd rather fly in a DaVinci Wildfire or Ilat type rockoon.

Which makes you wonder why somebody isn't already skydiving out of the commercially...

High altitude balloons are also very susceptible to weather/winds and that is one of the constraints that it seems none of these folks are looking at.

Huh! Didn't any on you bother to read my post?

Bullspace? I said the same thing, if anybody bothered to read my post.

Bad_Astra? If you bother reading this, some questions for you:

(1) Do balloons tear easily, or not?
(2) Do balloons drift with the wind?
(3) Does the X-Prize have rules about landing close to the launch-site, or not?
(4) Is Saskatchewen weather often violent in summer?...and is it easily predictable?
(5) Has JP Aerospace every had success with balloon-rockets?

1) Ballons are pretty tough.
2) Drifts like you wouldn't believe
3) You can land as far down range as you want.
4) Maybe, maybe not. so what?
5) JP has succeded at everything they have attempted.

Mostly though I think DV are just behind schedule for a win. There is far more at stake however than just the X Prize.

Even if they don't beat SS1, DaVinci is still going to give Canada status as the forth country in space.

1: No, or to be more precise: depends on what they are made of. Bear in mind at launch altittude, there isn't much to tear them.
2: Yes. Tether them, if needed.
3: No, AFAIK.
4: Possibly, but launch locations can be changed.
5: Yes, going back to 1995. They didn't invent rockoon launches, of course. They'd been done by others before. I'm working on one myself.

Canadian Arrow has a good shot at it too. They're still my favourite to win. Not only that, but I like their design the best - they have the best safety systems of the bunch, if you ask me.

Is daVinci waiting on Scaled? With all the rumors considering their launch date, are they ready, but trying wring-out every last day of testing they can before they go? Would it be possible for daVinci to announce "on the SAME day" as Scaled, and attempt to claim the prize by winning with the shortest turn time?

If you were willing to bet you had a faster turn-around by a factor of days, you could have your first lauch a day or two after scaled.

Scaled can likely launch in a one two if they had though... But then... they don't have two, they need the publicity, not the money. Being beaten at the line might be better than winning. Not that Burt would ever throw anything, but its a thought.

That would certainly make for a much more interesting competition, and something that might actually be considered somewhat newsworthy by the mainstream media.