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September SpaceShot Weather Columns

Posted by: dinkin - Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:51 pm
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September SpaceShot Weather Columns 
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Space Walker
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Post September SpaceShot Weather Columns   Posted on: Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:51 pm
The blogroll format of lots of topics for a month seems like a good model. Comment if there is a better one you like.


Last edited by dinkin on Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post 9/15: Peking Paul's Predictions Hot and Cold   Posted on: Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:15 pm
Peking Paul and crux42 are at it again. crux42 did make a level 8 prediction, but ARothfolk did not. We may get a 3rd contender at level 8 today. Peking Paul and crux42 made $2,250 in predictions with matches through level 7 again. If Peking Paul wins, there will be three players at level 8. If Peking Paul or ARothfolk advances, the next match will be against crux42 at level 9. The winner will be the tournament leader at level 10.

In yesterday's premier match, the rain played some tricks on Peking Paul. The high was 67 and the low was 64. This was AccuWeather's prediction (eventually) and crux42's.

Today, Peking Paul and crux42 square off again.

PLAYER . . . . HIGH. LOW. PRECIP HUMIDITY for Central Park, 9/15
Peking Paul: 70.75 64.25 0.9475 88.25
crux42: . . . . 69.25 66.25 0.6175 90.75

This match will be decided on high temperature, unless it is 70 with Peking Paul winning if the high is 71 or higher and crux42 if it is 69 or lower. If the high is 70, Peking Paul will win if the low is 65 or lower and crux42 if it is 66 or higher. As of 11:00 AM Eastern Time, Custom Weather is predicting a high of 71 and a low of 64. AccuWeather is predicting a high of 70 and a low of 64 tonight. They also had a reading of 65 which if confirmed would give the match to Peking Paul if the high is 70. Peking Paul is favored by both weather services, but it's not 70 yet.


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Post crux42 does it again!   Posted on: Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:58 pm
Despite both weather services having predicted that Peking Paul would prevail yesterday as of 11:00 AM, crux42 prevailed. crux42, predicting the night before, was closer on the high temperature than Peking Paul, AccuWeather and Custom Weather. Bravo!

This gives crux42 a second level 8 play. crux42 played again at level 8 today, but again ARothfolk did not play at level 8. When they both do play, if ARothfolk wins, there will be a match at level 9 against crux42 for the tournament lead to get to the round of 256. One of those 256 players will win a trip to space that retails for $250k and $100k in cash and get a life changing view of the Earth, experience zero-G for the longest time and be one of the first 1,000 people ever to go into space.

Peking Paul's highest play is now at level 6, but for predictions today predicted at levels 1-5 and has 5 mutual matchups with crux42. crux42 and Peking Paul played $1900 in plays today.

PLAYER . . . . HIGH. LOW. PRECIP HUMIDITY for Central Park, 9/16
crux42: . . . . 75.25 63.25 0.5325 90.25
Peking Paul: 73.75 62.75 0.0525 73.75

This match will be decided on high temperature with crux42 winning if the high temperature is 75 or higher and Peking Paul if it is 74 or lower.

As of 9:00 AM Eastern Time, 9/16, AccuWeather predicts 75. Custom Weather predicts 77. crux42 is backed by both services this time, but that didn't help Peking Paul yesterday.

I want to note that crux42 is not a meteorologist, does not live in New York or even on the East Coast, and is a graduate student in migration studies. We at SpaceShot would like to give crux42 the opportunity to analyze the human migration to the stars. Help out for $3.50.

The weather game is played at http://www.space-shot.com For $3.50, make predictions by 11:59 PM for tomorrow's weather for Central Park, New York City. The grand prize has a retail value of $350,000; a trip to space selling for $250,000 and $100,000 in cash. High temperature decides with low, precipitation and humidity as tie breaks. Open to players 18 and over. The tournament has 17 levels and at each level, you play against someone just like you head to head for 131,000 entries per tournament. One $3.50 fee is all that is paid for the entire tournament.

Sam Dinkin is CEO of SpaceShot, Inc. and can be reached at 888-434-6546 and dinkin@space-shot.com.


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Post crux42 wins a hat trick   Posted on: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:47 pm
The high was 78 giving crux42 yet another sweep against Peking Paul.

Today's two featured predictions are from wxbrief and That Guy

PLAYER .. HIGH. LOW. PRECIP HUMIDITY for Central Park, 9/17
wxbrief: . 82.75 64.25 0.0025 59.25
That Guy: 81.75 69.75 0.0025 52.25

wxbrief will be closer if the high temperature is 83 or higher and That Guy will be closer if the high is 82 or lower. AccuWeather is predicting 82 as of 1:45 PM Eastern Time and Custom Weather is predicting 81. That Guy is sitting pretty.


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Post Weather game box scores   Posted on: Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:03 am
Yesterday, the high was indeed 83 and wxbrief had the better prediction when the low was 65.

In today's predictions, we have crux42 and newcomer Kim. The top two players played $2,300 in plays. crux42 is tournament leader at level 9 and two plays at level 8. ARothfolk can take on crux42 at level 8 but is biding time.

PLAYER HIGH. LOW. PRECIP HUMIDITY for Central Park, 9/19
crux42: 75.25 64.25 0.4725 85.75
Kim: ... 77.25 61.25 0.4925 74.25

The better prediction will be decided on high temperature with Kim taking it if the high temperature is 77 or higher and crux42 if it is 76 or lower.

As of 12:30 PM Eastern Time, 9/19, AccuWeather predicts 81. Custom Weather predicts 78. Kim is expected to have the better prediction according to both services. Well done!

The weather game is played at http://www.space-shot.com For $3.50, make predictions by 11:59 PM for tomorrow's weather for Central Park, New York City. The grand prize has a retail value of $350,000; a trip to space selling for $250,000 and $100,000 in cash. High temperature decides with low, precipitation and humidity as tie breaks. Open to players 18 and over. The tournament has 17 levels and at each level, you play against someone just like you head to head for 131,000 entries per tournament. One $3.50 fee is all that is paid for the entire tournament.

Sam Dinkin is CEO of SpaceShot, Inc. and can be reached at 888-434-6546 and dinkin@space-shot.com.


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Post Level 8 and Half Dome Scaled   Posted on: Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:43 pm
I am just back from scaling Half Dome in Yosemite National Park near Oakhurst California. There was a good deal of drama to get to the summit, but I did it. A 16-mile hike with a 4,800 ft climb is a good analog for the story of SpaceShot, Inc. We are gaining momentum, adding customers, building and players are buying and playing. In the next few days, we are going to reach a new milestone. Just 7 more levels to go for us to have a finalist. It took 15.5 hours to finish the hike coming in at 10 pm just before the Park Rangers needed to be called out. It will take time for the Stars to belong to the People, longer than we might like. But we are just putting one foot in front of the other and making steady progress.

The development team is meeting to develop a framework and a road map for SpaceShot 2.0 and SpaceShot 2.1. We are going to shoot a few pictures so you can attach a face to some of the SpaceShot contractors. I had a successful auction and am expecting a six figure payout for my contribution. I am also putting six figures into SpaceShot, Inc. so we can get someone 62 miles up and get a better view than the nearly two miles up at the top of Half Dome.

Today, crux42 and ARothfolk are playing at level 8. If ARothfolk wins, he can play crux42 again at level 9. The winner of that match would get to level 10 and be in the round of 256. One of those 256 people will win a trip to space that retails for $200,000-$250,000 and $100,000 in cash.

PLAYER .. HIGH. LOW. PRECIP HUMIDITY for Central Park, 9/26
ARothfolk 74.25 55.75 0.0025 43.25
crux42 ... 73.25 57.25 0.0975 65.25

The match will be decided on high temperature with ARothfolk winning if temperature is 74 or higher and crux42 if it is 73 or lower.

As of 2:30 PM Eastern Time, AccuWeather is predicting 75. Custom Weather is predicting 79. crux42 may be off by more than 5 degrees. On the other hand, the high temperature in the last 6 hours is 71 according to AccuWeather. crux42 has not lost yet.

Last time, Kim, the newcomer predicted two degrees closer than crux42 the veteran who ended up being off by almost 5 degrees.

The weather game is played at http://www.space-shot.com For $3.50, make predictions by 11:59 PM for tomorrow's weather for Central Park, New York City. The grand prize has a retail value of $350,000; a trip to space selling for $250,000 and $100,000 in cash. High temperature decides with low, precipitation and humidity as tie breaks. Open to players 18 and over. The tournament has 17 levels and at each level, you play against someone just like you head to head for 131,000 entries per tournament. One $3.50 fee is all that is paid for the entire tournament.

Sam Dinkin is CEO of SpaceShot, Inc. and can be reached at 888-434-6546 and dinkin@space-shot.com.


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Post crux42 again?   Posted on: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:45 am
crux42 looks poised to triumph again. AccuWeather and Custom Weather both backed ARothfolk's prediction until well after the preliminary daily high of 73 was recorded. The statistics we will use from National Weather Service will be released in a few hours, but as of now, it looks like crux42 will have two level 9 plays and will be able to trade them for a level 10 play with our next upgrade. A conditional congratulations.


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Post crux42 confirmed   Posted on: Wed Sep 27, 2006 7:17 am
Blue wins. The NWS reports 73 degrees on its F-6 for Central Park for 9/26. That was a close one.


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Post    Posted on: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:42 pm
Ouch. That loss stung a bit. Not sure what is going on with the computer models and professional forecasts lately being a couple degress on the warm side. I adjusted for that, but apparently not enough. Being close to the end of the month and going into a Northern Hemisphere fall tilt, maybe the models haven't backed off the solar input yet, not sure how to check that though.

Anyways, congratulations to Crux, he is obviously forecasting at a level everyone else can't even begin to understand.

Any chance I can get a consolotation date with the Space Shot girl to help ease the pain?

_________________
Quando omin flunkus moritati


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Post    Posted on: Wed Sep 27, 2006 10:15 pm
I thought she came with the prize package!

Good shot, ARothfolk. I have confidence that you'll be back up here to try again at level 9!

crux


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Post Our model is the personification of spaceflight for everyone   Posted on: Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:57 pm
ARothfolk, that is a variant of our most frequently asked question. You may not have Space Girl's phone number. Space Girl will not be joining the winner on the spaceflight. We invited Space Girl to join SpaceShot at X-Prize Cup in Las Cruces in a few weeks, but it does not look like she will be able to join us. We'll try to do a public event with her soon.

As crux42 points out, we have committed to letting the winner meet Space Girl. No guarantees she'll wear the high altitude suit.


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Post    Posted on: Thu Sep 28, 2006 11:49 pm
"...No guarantees she'll wear the high altitude suit."

Dinkin, the phrase, which was immortalized in the 1980's cinematic masterpiece 'Joe Versus the Volcano', is "I have no response to that".

crux


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Post 9/30 matchup   Posted on: Sat Sep 30, 2006 4:24 pm
There were an even number of players at levels 2, 4 and 5 for today's predictions so no one got the free play at each level for going unmatched. This is a generous promotion. A $3.50 retail value play just for playing one day is a 36500% interest rate at level 1, 21000% at level 2, 11000% at level 3, 5300% at level 4, 2700% at level 5, 1300% at level 6, 670% at level 7, 340% at level 8 and 170% at level 9. That's computed without the daily compounding. You are not going to get that kind of return anywhere else. These rates are so high that Peking Paul and crux42 are giving a portion of their free plays to charity, respectively to the Space Frontier Foundation Teachers in Space and the Lifeboat Foundation. SpaceShot, Inc. is also donating 3% of proifts to charity. In version 2.0 coming soon, players will be able to note which non-profit they would like their portion of proceeds to go to.

Today's featured matchup is between Kim and Atari_Guy:

PLAYER ... HIGH. LOW. PRECIP HUMIDITY for Central Park, 9/30
Atari_Guy 65.75 48.75 0.0575 61.75
Kim ......... 65.75 54.75 0.2225 45.25

The players are tied on high temperature. The match will be decided on low temperature with Kim winning if temperature is 52 or higher and Atari_Guy if it is 51 or lower.

As of 12:01 PM Eastern Time, AccuWeather is predicting the low temperature will be 58. Custom Weather is predicting 51. The services are split and with the low temperature in the last 6 hours 52, a half degree shift by either player on the high or low temperature may have been able to have altered the result.

The weather game is played at http://www.space-shot.com For $3.50, make predictions by 11:59 PM for tomorrow's weather for Central Park, New York City. The grand prize has a retail value of $350,000; a trip to space selling for $250,000 and $100,000 in cash. High temperature decides with low, precipitation and humidity as tie breaks. Open to players 18 and over. The tournament has 17 levels and at each level, you play against someone just like you head to head for 131,000 entries per tournament. One $3.50 fee is all that is paid for the entire tournament.

Sam Dinkin is CEO of SpaceShot, Inc. and can be reached at 888-434-6546 and dinkin@space-shot.com.


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