next xprize competion.

will the next x prize be the first to go to the moon and back. or something to do with going to the moon?

I don't think anyone knows yet

Most likely building a space ship, that can get off the ground go into space then come back. Then do it again?

maybe orbiting earth, and the ships being done now cant actually stay in orbit or sub-orbit for a long time , so the rules would probably be something like:
stay in proper orbit for a week
and maybe transporting people somewhere

A lift from one of Robert Zubrins books:

- Soil sample return from Mars (robotic)
- Demonstrate long term life support (orbit unassisted and unsupplied for two years)
- Deliver a Rover safely to Mars
- Develop a private rocket that can lift 120 tonnes to LEO
- Deliver 30 tonnes safely to Mars

These all have really hefty suggest prizes of near a Billion US dollars possibly to be supplied by the US govt, in return for receiving access to all the technology etc. on the rational that it is cheaper than having Nasa develop the stuff inhouse.

Hmmm.... I like the sound of this. Previously I had thought that X-Prize2 should be manned orbital, but robotic to Mars and return could be cool. Raises thoughts of robotic mining of Mars or Asteroids.....Please don't let me diverge the conversation here.

I think an orbital prize is definately the next step from here, but it does have some drawbacks. The companies which got some hardware off of the X-Prize are going to have a clear advantage over newcomers, who will have to make their stuff up from scratch. I know that this is an oversimplification, but if you just slapped something like the Canadian Arrow onto a Delta core stage it would get you to orbit. Everyone would have to develop orbital manuvering systems, bigger life-supporte systems, and bettter heat shields, but when you already have a capsule built it makes everything much easier. So, I think this "X-Prize 2" should go all-out requiring serious redesigning for the regulars, leveling the playing field for newcomers. As an added bonus, it would yeild vehicles vey useful for extended space tourism and rendezvous with space stations, as well as a starting point for moon vehicles. Here would be the requirements:

-The vehicle must be capabile of carrying six people into an initial orbit of 200x200 miles
-The vehicle (Capsule, whatever) must be able to stay at least 10 days in orbit, and capible of changing its orbit up to a total of 800 miles in flight.
-The vehicle must be able to rendezvous and dock with a space station (ISS for starters) and allow autonomous EVA.
-The vehicle must be capible of two flights of which at least one must stay for the ten day requirement within 35 days. After that all of the above requriements must be met to win the prize of $25 million, while not repalcing more than 80% of the non-propellant mass in between flights.

Sound too harsh? This is actually about what the Geminis were capible of, so I think that's a logical next step after replicating the Mercury Redstone flights. What do you think?

The big things development wise are engines. If someone has built a decent engine (like C-arrow) then they only have to tweak it to get it to orbit. Getting back is their only (though complex) problem.

Anybody who has developed hardware is going to have huge advantage in the future, which is the whole point of the X Prize isn't it.

The only way to level the playing field would be to ban hardware developed for the X Prize one and derivative designs. That way you wouldn't simply be making a $25 million dollar donation to an already established company.

The winner of the X Prize should be able to bootstarp itself all the way to Mars anyway.

i think not. scaled will (odds are) win the xprize, but there will be many other teams done by the time the next competition will be launched. the original xprize teams would have an advantage, but then again, since it is privately developed material, there's nothing that says one of them couldn't build a replica xprize ship and sell it to some new company, allowing them to develop from there, or sell some piece of hardware. spacedev could sell their hybrid motor, armadillo could sell their engine/engine control software, etc. it would be a competition mainly between the top xprize teams, but it would still be competition and interesting to see.

What I was getting at was that a robotic mission to mars and back would have more commercial implications (eg for mining etc) and would likely captivate the public more than orbital launch (which non-space enthusiasts still think is routine).

However I have no idea of the technical problems of carrying this out. Has it ever been done (ie bring Mars rocks back to Earth)?

Nobody has ever got close to returning anything from mars.

It would likely require making propellant on Mars, the success of which would open the door for humans to go to Mars.

sending something to mars and bringing martian stuff back is significant, but not really realistic or a big economical thing. better to have a robotic mining mission to a NEA, and that should pay for itself, provided it can return most of the asteroid, because close to the whole thing would be useable. in fact, it would be best if it could be towed to GEO orbit or something (no lower because of the danger), then spit large packages down lower when needed to be picked up or in some other way put down on earth in a safe, timely manner. i remember seeing somewhere that a 100 foot diameter asteroid of no exceptional mineral composition is worth something like 3-4 billion dollars.

Wicked. I think that sounds awesome. It would captivate millions of entrepreneurs as well.

"What? You can make 3-4 billion dollars in SPACE! Geez, gotta get in on this...."

I love robotics, robotics mixed with rockets, space and profits = cooool.

I remember seeing something on tv about moving huge asteroids on collision course with earth. If they're reached early in their approach to earth, they can be moved huge distances by nudging them a small amount.

[Pete jumps into a bunker ready to be shelled by overzealous engineers ]

If there is another X-Prize, it'll probably be something along the lines of getting to orbit. A lot of sub-orbital critics have tried to make a big deal of the difference between the sub-orbital X-prize requirements versus the requirements of putting something into orbit. Those people would make it seem that any of the current X-prize teams do not have that much of an advantage over a newcomer.

I've heard John Carmack state that he wants to get to orbit eventually, have any of the other teams made any mention of their long term goals?

The idea is that NASA would offer Big money as a Prize as a somewhat more competitive answer to their current contract system.

NASA burnt 2 Billion on the NASP without getting beyond the drawing board. If that 2 Billion had been a prize for building the tech then the NASP would exist already.

The idea isn't to make a profit, but to accomplish NASA goals on the cheap, Like doing Mars return for 1 Billion.