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Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers

Posted by: Ekkehard Augustin - Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:05 pm
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Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers 
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Post    Posted on: Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:40 pm
The article "New Mexico Spaceport: Getting Down To Business" ( www.space.com/news/060102_nm_spaceport.html ) is reporting that Virgin Galactic estimates that
Quote:
some 50,000 customers will fly into space in the first ten years of operation
.

I am not sure yet if this number has to be added to the tables or not. The reason is that the numbers about customers are reported to be registered people at Virgin Galactic while the 50,000 could only be assumed to be registered.

Additionally the estimation has been reported in connection with the New Mexico Spaceport. This might mean that the number includes customers who are not known to nobody up to now.

But the number might be indicating that the number potential customers registered at Virgin Galactic is 70% of the whole market only - if the last reported number of 34,000 registered people is used and rounded up to 35,000.

This also might mean that the growth rate is under-estimated by the number of registered people.

The flight rates I use in the Accumulation-thread would mean that between 3,500 and 21,000 customers are flown per year. 3,500 would mean that the ten years quoted are required to fly 35,000 people - which would be only 1,000 more than registered.

to cover the remaining 15,000 - 1,500 per year - too Virgin Galactic would have to apply a flight rate of around 700 per year. This is far from the number of flights required to make 3,000 people astronauts within five years as they have been reported to have said recently.

I will think about how to handle the 50,000 within this thread and the tables.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:02 am
In between I got an intersting relation of numbers in the Lunar Siyuz flight-thread.

While at five passengers a flight into the orbit via the CXV the ticket-price of that flight would be $ 4 mio because the flight for all five passengers together would cost $ 20 mio the ticket-price for a lunar round-trip would be $ 33 mio to $ 37.5 mio. the relations are 8.25 and 9.375.

The relation between the price of the orbital ticekt estimated by Prof. Collins et al. at $ 20,000 and the lunare ticket-price Prof. Collins listed in his answer to me to be $ 200,000 is 10.

So in the Lunar Soyuz flight-thread I got a relation close to the relation Prof. Collins got. In doubt his relation will be closer to reality than mine I think.

But the Lunar Siyuz flight-thread doesn't include a landing while Prof. Collins seems to have in mind a landing (or several and repeated ones since there ar scientific articles by him researching lunar sports etc.



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Post    Posted on: Sun May 14, 2006 8:28 am
In between my calculations in the Lunar Siyuz-flight-thread resulted in numbers of between significantly less than $ 170,000 and $ 300,000 in the longer run. This includes the thought also that SpaceDev's vehicles could be used instead of a financially CXV-like vehicle.

Given these numbers simply seems to indicate that based on numbers provided by developers NOW - t/Space, SpaceX, Apollo, SpaceDev - I can get the price Prof. Collins estimated for the 24 YEARS IN THE FUTURE - for 2030.

In so far the numbers I got seems to assist Prof. Collins.

But it is to early yet to argue this way since the calculations don't consider no orbital flight around the Moon and no landing on the Moon - they only consider one flight around the far side of the Moon

All in all the check still isn't complete.

Those number below $ 200,000 I personally would prefer to consider to be too low - meaning that Prof. Collins' $ 200,000 are significantly closer to the reality of 2030.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:12 am
In between there athere are first results showing that the price I can calculated for a toursitic lunar landing really still is at the level the round-trip price is.

The price is above the price Prof. Collins lists in his answer to me - but this might have to do with the number of passengers he has in mind. I am limited to five passngers and one pilto by apllying a financially CXV-like vehicle.



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Post    Posted on: Fri Jul 07, 2006 7:17 am
Today an article under www.welt.de is reporting that a third of all Germans would fly into space if they had the opportunity. 69% of all interviewed people would be willing to pay Euros 10,000 maximum for a flight. The poll has been done by MPG Solutions/GfK, Frankfurt on Main.

Euros 10,000 are $ 12,780 today.

The flight into space isn't specified and so I don't know if the people interviewed are thinking of suborbital, orbital, lunar or Science Fiction-like.

The poll didn't have to do with Prof. Collins but may be assisting him regarding the suborbital price in 2030 since the maximum simply would force the price down if the people don't increase the maximum. May be that the remaining 31% don't have such a maximum in mind which then really would assist Prof. Collins.

Let's assume that there are 81 mio Germans. 31% of these are 25.11 mio Next assume that only a half of these are adults then 12.555 mio are left and of these take less than 10% as those that might be wealthy enough - 1.2555 mio. And these are all potential customers - not actual ones yet.

Since this is the presence and Germany only I again think that this assists Prof. Collins estimation of the customers he got via market research.

...



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Post    Posted on: Sun Jul 09, 2006 11:19 am
Just this moment I had a look into the initial post but didn't find yet what I was looking for - so I will continue the search later. But I found the former mentioned relation of 1:10 between the earthian orbital trip and the lunar round trip.

This ratio I got earlier already in the Lunar Siyuz-thread. In betwen I got a least proice for the landing trip - that price is $ 240,000 at present - 1:10 earthian orbit:lunar landing.

Of course no propellant price and no depreciations aren't included yet.

But this result is very close to Prof. Collins' number(s). A look into the tables posted in the Lunar Siyuz-thread reveals that the number of passengers has an impact on the ticket price that springs to the eyes. Since Prof. Collins published document about particular equipments and buildings for touristic events and of thousands of people being on the Moon it can be assumed that in 2030 - the year Prof. Collins is estimating price and costs for - the number of passengers will be significantly above 5. This together with the result(s) in the Lunar Siyuz-thread means that there is reasonable propability that Prof. Collins' $ 200,000 will turn out to be extremely close to reality.

Please keep urgentlyy in mind that the numbers got in the Lunar Siyuz-thread are values of or for indicators only but no way predictions. forecasts or estimations. The vehicles made use of are indicators only - I don't have in mind that they are used really. I only was out on looking what numbers will be got that way - I wanted to get numbers as a base.

The check isn't finished yet no way - the depreciations etc. will be interesting.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Jul 16, 2006 3:59 pm
By the calculation of the depreciations required in turned out that the upper boundaries required to keep the costs/prices at the level listed in the previous posts are ranging from 8,500 people to 22,000 people.

So it is worth the time to look into Prof. Collins' documents to compare his numbers to these ranges.

At present I don't have the time to do so but I will do it later - it will last until I checked the numbers I got in the Lunar Soyuz-thread.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:52 am
Since Virgin Galactic have published by the Newsletter - to be read in the News part of this board and linked and referred to in the Accvumulations-thread - that they in between have more than 60,000 registered people I enhanced the table about the number of customers.

AAss e numbers show the number of registered people not only continues to be ahaed of the numbers required for Collins' estimation for 2030 to come true - the gap is enhanced and ahead of the requirements even in percentages again.

So still the numbers point to Collins' 2030-number - but of the 25 years are 1.67 years are gone only up to now... Interesting here also - the number is ahead of the number of contractors Virgin Galactic apply in the business plan. This might be a sign also...

Table of amount of customers (2 continuations)
Code:
                              07.12.04   19.12.04   21.12.04   19.04.05   
Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            7000       13000      - / -       - / -     
growth since ...                     
previous date                 - / -       85,70%    - / -       - / -     
previous date
per month                     - / -      171,40%    - / -       - / -     
first date                    85,70%     - / -      - / -       - / -     

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -      - / -      7018         7141     
double-month    1.75%         - / -      - / -      7031         7247     
month           2,1875%       - / -      - / -      7155         7640     
double-month    4.375%        - / -      - / -      7077         7982   
month           0.5%          - / -      - / -      - / -       13262     
double-month    1.75%         - / -      - / -      - / -       13459     
month           2,1875%       - / -      - / -      - / -       14189     
double-month    4.375%        - / -      - / -      - / -       14823



(continuation 1)

                              25.04.05   21.10.05   26.08.06    2030
Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            29000      34000      60000       - / -
growth since ...                     
previous date                 123.10%     17.24%     76,47%     - / -
previous date
per month                      30.78%      2.87%      7,65%     - / -
first date                    314.29%    485.71%    757,14%     - / -

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -       7358       7735      4850957
double-month    1.75%         - / -       7634       9081      4997873
month           2,1875%       - / -       8712      10817      4956277
double-month    4.375%        - / -      13493      20705      4956277
month           0.5%          - / -      13665      14364      4850957
double-month    1.75%         - / -      14178      16864      4997873
month           2,1875%       - / -      16179      20088      4956277
double-month    4.375%        - / -      25058      38452      4956277



(continuation 2)

                              dateless   30 years
Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn             - / -      - / -
growth since ...                     
previous date                  - / -      - / -
previous date
per month                      - / -      - / -
first date                     - / -      - / -

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%           - / -      - / -
double-month    1.75%          - / -      - / -
month           2,1875%        - / -      - / -
double-month    4.375%         - / -      - / -
month           0.5%           - / -      - / -
double-month    1.75%          - / -      - / -
month           2,1875%        - / -      - / -
double-month    4.375%         - / -      - / -




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