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A scientific economic estimation

Posted by: Ekkehard Augustin - Sun Dec 05, 2004 6:15 pm
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A scientific economic estimation 
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Post    Posted on: Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:24 pm
Hello, Andy Hill,

did you read the tables I added to the thread I initiated because of Collins' answer to me?

I calculated the number of flights from the number of people already registered at Virgin Galactic. Because of those numbers I would like if Dinkin et al. would modify their model by increasing the number of flights from 1,000 over 5,000 to 10,000 and then have another look to the results.

A problem regarding the reconcilation may be that Collins' estimation is based on a 50-seat-vehicle which has large economies of scale compared to a 5-seat-vehicle - Dinkin et al. didn't consider that large vehicles of 550 tons. I feel stimulated to think about this...

By the way - the way Virgin Galactic got those numbers can be considered as a raw market research.



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Post    Posted on: Mon Jun 20, 2005 5:16 pm
Ekkehard Augustin wrote:
Hello, Andy Hill,

did you read the tables I added to the thread I initiated because of Collins' answer to me?
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Hello Ekkehard

to be honest I have lost interest in this thread and find it a bit heavy going. I only posted the article because I thought it might be useful to others who are having a discussion on this topic. :)

Andy

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Post    Posted on: Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:09 am
The going of this thread here was one of the major reasons to initiate the three new threads - the seperation may make it lighter going.

Especially I hope that the chances for cheap personal space access of the customers get in the focus again - and the levels.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Sep 25, 2005 3:03 pm
In between the informations allow for weak comparisons of the numbers estimated by Collins, Rutan, Virgin Galactic et. al.

I am beginning to do those comparisons to stress the estimated numbers. For several resons I am doing that in the thread about Collins' answer to me - but this is the Scientific-Estimations-thread: I am stressing Collins' scientific estimations this way too. For this reason I go on to post remarks here.

Currently it looks as if the numbers published by Virgin Galactic, t/Space and Air Launch LLC. tend to assist Collins' estimations regarding suborbital and orbital flights - but the comparisons possible are weak only.



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Post    Posted on: Sat Oct 22, 2005 4:20 pm
There are new informations from Virgin Galactic today saying that they in between have 34,000 registered customers.

I am going to add this number to the table(s) posted one time during this thread - but I will post the updated table in the Collins-thread.

There is a number regarding deposits too - this number I will consider in the Accumulations-thread.



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Post    Posted on: Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:23 pm
Just a few minutes ago I read the article "New Mexico Spaceport: Getting Down To Business" ( www.space.com/news/060102_nm_spaceport.html ).

The article is reporting a new number of passengers Virgin Galactic estimates - regarding the whole market it seems to me but not regarding their own business only.

I am going to list that number in the Collins-thread but don't include it into any table yet - I first have to think if the earlier reported numbers of customers registered at Virgin Galactic is sufficiently homogenous with the estimation reported by the article.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:09 am
In the Collins-thread I posted a comparison enabled in between by the Lunar Siyuz flight-thread.

The comparison seems to indicate that Prof. Collins' relation between the orbital and the lunar ticket-price might be got also based on data about Soyuz, CXV, Block DM, the Falcons and VLA/QuickReach.



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Post    Posted on: Sun May 14, 2006 8:32 am
My recent calculations in the Lunar Siyuz-thread resulted in numbers at the level Prof. Collins estimated for the lunar flight - regarding the ticket-price.

The lower boundaries are below the 10-times-the-orbital-price-mark while the upper boundaries are slightly above that mark if the orbital price I personally calculated in the Accumulation-thread and the Colins-thread is applied.

More is to be read in the Collins-thread.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Jun 11, 2006 9:17 am
In between I got a first price for a lunar trip that includes a landing of tourists.

That first price is a lower boundary at $ 375,000 while the upper boundary still has to be calculated.

This number is above Prof. Collins' 200,000 but I have to have a new look into his answer and into the documents he listed befor I expalin or comment that

Mor important - there are still enhancements of the claculations possible and so will proceed farther.



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Post    Posted on: Mon Jul 03, 2006 7:03 am
There are new and additional numbers already - but they are not at the bottom line yet. At least one step is left.

So refer to the Lunar Soyuz thread at present.

The upper boundary left in the previous thread was improper - but in between I have gone beyond that step and I am going to have a look into Prof. Collins' documents to look what use he makes of the Moon regarding costs.



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Post    Posted on: Fri Jul 07, 2006 7:19 am
Today I read of a poll by MPG Solutions/GfK, FfM. The poll seems to assist Prof. Collins estimation of the number of customers a bit.

Some details and thoughts about it I posted in the Collins-thread.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Jul 09, 2006 11:24 am
Obviuosly the least price I could get up to now was $ 240,000. There is a lot to be said about it - please refer to the Collins-thread for more thoughts.

The number of $ 240,000 is and indicator-value only - not a prediction or something like that. The vehicles used are indicators only.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Jul 16, 2006 4:02 pm
It seems that the number of passengers required to keep the cost/price of $ 240,000 might be found in Prof. Collins' documents.

Because that wuld be very interesting I will look for that after checking the numbers.



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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:59 am
In between Virgin Galactic listed a new number of registered people. My experimental calculations show that the growth rate is ahead of the erquirements again - 10 months ago it was at the second highest growth rate I am using in the experiments.

The rate is ahead significantly - and it is arate got applying a period of ten months this time. This longer period might provide the more correct rate because seasonal effects are ruled out to some degree. If that is really so then the higher and at present being ahead of my calculations rate will have been valid in the past also.

...



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