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Space-Shot.com Play by Play

Posted by: dinkin - Wed May 10, 2006 3:47 am
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Space Walker
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Post Space-Shot.com Play by Play   Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 3:47 am
In our biggest battle yet, halo is facing off against crux42. The former, a jet pilot from Louisiana, the latter a graduate student in migration studies from University of Washington. crux42 is back from China so this is the first opportunity for them to face off at level 7. Level 8 is a $380 entry that gets the winning player to the round of 1024 players. They are also facing off at levels 1, 3 and 4. Over $500 in plays rides on matches between these two players. In the main match crux42 has predicted 64.25 for high temperature and halo 61.25. The main match will be decided on high temperature with 63 and higher going to crux42 and 62 and lower going to halo. AccuWeather says 65 and Custom Weather says 64.99. At this point, it looks like crux42 has the edge, but a lot can happen between 11:30 PM Eastern Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. halo's entries came later in the day than crux42's. Does he know something that crux42 and the weather feeds don't? :?:


Last edited by dinkin on Mon May 22, 2006 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 3:04 pm
As an aside, I had much success against Halo early on in the competition, but s/he has since trounced me in most of our recent (three weeks ago) matches...perhaps s/he has adapted to my tactics. Oddly, I have had more tied high temps agains Halo than any other player. With, I think, even one or two tied lows...

Sneaky. Good luck, Halo! It's an all or nothing day and latest forcasts are shooting under yesterday's weather service predictions...it will be tight.

Crux


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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 3:46 pm
Update 2:

NOAA now reporting Central Park temps 62F at 11am...

Climb, damn you, climb!

Crux


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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 4:11 pm
Update 3:

NOAA now reporting Central Park high temps 63F at noon.

As of now its a tie moving into low temperature showdowns for most of my predictions. I think Halo has the advantage on those and I pray (really, I'm doing a global warming dance right now) that the park edges up ever so slightly in the next hour or so...

Crux


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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 5:06 pm
The race for space 8) let me know who wins today!

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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 5:15 pm
Update 4:

Latest weather and a correction...

NOAA reporting continuation of Central Park temps 63F at 1300hrs.

After reviewing the original post by Dinkin, 63F should be sufficient for a win. However, nothing is certain until the official posting after midnight tonight (and I've made that mistake before)...if it is a sweep I'll buy you a beer, Halo...

Crux


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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 5:27 pm
Update 5:

Correction
NOAA has now downgraded 1300hrs temp to 62F...

They must average for the whole hour and continually update during that hour.

Noon temps still reported as 63F...

Crux


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Post    Posted on: Wed May 10, 2006 7:15 pm
We're up to about 65F for 1500hrs...

crux


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Post It's official   Posted on: Thu May 11, 2006 11:51 am
Congratulations crux42. The official high temperature is 69 degrees and you won by a big margin. I guess you owe halo a beer. He'll be at the Rocketplane/SpaceShot booth at Oshkosh this summer if you want to pay up.

I predict a rematch. Halo is now at level 6 and tomorrow there will be a second player at level 6. There are enough lower level entries out there that another level 7 player will percolate up and hence another level 8 player.

After you meet at level 8, one of you or your opponent will advance to the round of 512. Well done getting to the round of 1024, crux42!


Last edited by dinkin on Sun May 21, 2006 8:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Post    Posted on: Thu May 11, 2006 2:02 pm
At the booth?!?! He won't be piloting the suborbital flight, will he? I'll have to buy him two beers if so.


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Post Piloting   Posted on: Fri May 12, 2006 12:30 am
Rocketplane has opened up its 'shotgun' seat for revenue flight so it is not impossible that halo will sit in the co-pilot chair if he beats you later in the tournament. So far, Rocketplane does not have a license from FAA to fly at Oshkosh. It is entirely possible that they can obtain one, but the last I have heard is that they are flying revenue flights in summer 2007. John "Bone" Herrington would be very surprised to not be the pilot for Oshkosh 2008.


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Post halo vs. Pendragon level 6   Posted on: Sat May 13, 2006 12:25 pm
Pendragon in the morning and halo in the evening both predicted today's high would be 67 and they both selected 67.25 to register that prediction. (As veteran users know, you cannot select a round number--this reduces the incidence of ties.) Pendragon predicted the low would be 55 (54.75) and halo 56 (56.25). There will not be a tie. This match will be decided on low temperature. Accuweather says that the low from Saturday night was 52 and tonight will be 50. Custom Weather says today's low will be 53. It looks like Pendragon will be the third player to reach level 7. Of course, it will be the national weather report F-6 tomorrow morning that will formalize that observation.


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Post Pendragon to level 7 and ...   Posted on: Sun May 14, 2006 1:07 pm
The highest level matchup today is level 5. Plays were pending at level 6 and a play was made at level 8, but it went unmatched. Players can play tomorrow all levels from 1-8. That means if these players play daily, we are no more than 15 days from someone getting to level 9 and the round of 512. It may go much quicker than that as there are players with reservoirs of plays at levels 3 and 4. Anyone can purchase a play at level 8 and we could have a player at level 9 tomorrow.

The level 5 match is between wxbrief and crux42. The match will be decided on high temperature. crux42 played first and predicted 64.25 and wxbrief later predicted 65.25. As of 9:00 am EDT, AccuWeather says 64 and Custom Weather says 61. That gives crux42 the edge, but Custom Weather predicts .05 inches of rain. That could make it warmer especially if their "showers late" prediction turns into showers earlier.


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Post A level 8 matchup to get to round of 512   Posted on: Sat May 20, 2006 6:15 am
Two players will be at level 8 effective this morning as soon as the official weather results come in. The level 8 matchup will put the first player at level 9, the round of 512. Being based in Austin which has area code 512, I can say 'welcome' to the winner.

The resolution of the last play by play was a win by wxbrief who is now matched up at level 7 with a prediction for 5/19 with Pendragon. They fight to meet crux42 as early as 5/20 predicting the weather for 5/21 and getting resolved on the morning of 5/22.

Anyone like numerology? 5/21 for the first 512 round win?

Pendragon predicted 67 1/4 for the high and wxbrief 66 3/4. It looks like the high was 61 according to the friday afternoon version of this:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=OKXCLINYC&version=0&max=25

Once the F-6 comes in around 3:30, we should be able to confirm that wxbrief will face crux42. wxbrief is the same player as halo. After 1,000 plays, the interface gets pretty unweildy (we have an improved version in development). These are the two players that competed to be first to arrive in the round of 1024.

The conditions of this matchup will be a little different: neither player will see any of the other player's plays if they play after 6:10 pm eastern time. They could not see unmatched plays last time, but they could see matched plays as they were matched. We have cut back matching so players who play often can reduce the risk that other players will adjust their plays after seeing a few of theirs.


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Post Rematch between two top players   Posted on: Sat May 20, 2006 12:41 pm
wxbrief did indeed win at level 7 with the prediction for 5/19 for 66.75 vs. Pendragon's 67.25 when the high temperature observation was 61. wxbrief meets crux42 at level 8. These two players already met at level 7. Stay tuned for more updates.


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