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Predicting secrets!

Posted by: Runfast - Wed Apr 12, 2006 3:33 am
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Predicting secrets! 
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Launch Director
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Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 3:12 am
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Post Predicting secrets!   Posted on: Wed Apr 12, 2006 3:33 am
I was wondering if anyone had any good tips they wanted to give up on weather predicting, or just good advise. Thanks.


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Moon Mission Member
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Post    Posted on: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:49 pm
One of my physics teachers said he had originally planned on becoming a meteorologist. Then he learned that a person who had lived in an area for many years and was familiar with the weather could just walk outside, look at the sky, feel the air and predict tomorrow’s weather with about 90% accuracy. A meteorologist with all the instruments and computers and satellites could predict it with about 95% accuracy. He didn’t think a 5% improvement was worth all that trouble so he switched to physics.


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Spaceflight Trainee
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Post    Posted on: Wed Apr 12, 2006 4:08 pm
I'll tell you when I've won my first flight! :)


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Post    Posted on: Thu Apr 13, 2006 5:33 am
so does that mean you've found a secret.

p.s. do you think we have an advantage because we started first.


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Post    Posted on: Thu Apr 13, 2006 3:46 pm
That may be true. I think some people made predictions early on that were way off the mark, giving me an easy win. This resulted either from confusion about how to use the Prediction Interface and/or uncertainty about the margin of error in weather forcasts. However, such luck only works in the first and maybe the second tier and should also diminish with time as more people learn how to play from their friends...

Beyond that I won't say much else about how I make my predictions, although as I get into higher tiers it seems that the competition is using similar tactics as myself... On one day I thought that I had won a number of level 3 and 4 plays because I was looking at NOAA's hourly temperature reports for the day. Apparently at some point between the two hottest hours the temperature had slipped up a half degree or so and my competition won... ie. the difference between predictions is also narrowing as players in higher tiers get better.

Good luck.


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