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How lucky do you need to be to win a ticket to space ?

Posted by: Sigurd - Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:39 pm
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How lucky do you need to be to win a ticket to space ? 
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Post How lucky do you need to be to win a ticket to space ?   Posted on: Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:39 pm
EDIT: Due to the initial topic creator, emptied his topic with edit, I've split the usefull posts from the previous topic, but some information will be a reply to information no longer available.


I don't know how much a spaceflight will cost when the first winner is going into space.. it will not be tomorrow.. since the first flights are already quite full.. so it will be possible somewhere in 2009.. Considering Rocketplane to be in about the same price range as Virgin, Virgin puts the cost at 200k us$ but those costs are going down 2009+..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... xhome.html
Quote:
While this kind of price tag feeds the impression that space tourism is strictly for the rich and eccentric, few doubt that fares will begin to drop dramatically as the business develops. Mr Whitehorn believes that the cost of a trip could be brought down to less than £50,000 within five years. And, with affordable prices, it is a clear path to the stars: the visionaries of space tourism foresee orbiting hotels with luxury rooms, bars and restaurants.

Note, it's not US$. a comparision $200,000 (£115,000)., so less than 100k us$.

Each person, 3$, 200 us$ / 3 = 66 666 thousand people, but many will play for a lot more cash... I don't know how much profits Space-Shot will take, but it's an online game, so their cost are not too high.
If cost would go down to 100us$, with about 6$ per person, it would only be: 16 666 thousand people.. and it will have several "years" to achieve it.. Those odds of wining are several THOUSANDS times higher than ANY lottery or most gamble games.

So if you want to go to space.. it might be the easiest and "most likely" way most people will "ever" have a chance to go to space...

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Last edited by Sigurd on Tue Apr 04, 2006 7:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.



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Post The required number of predictions   Posted on: Mon Apr 03, 2006 9:53 pm
The number of predictions required at level 1 is 131,072. These can be bought at 6 for $18. Thus the minimum revenue if everyone starts at level 1 is $393,216. The retail value of the prize is $292,500 ($192,500 + $100,000 cash). Winner must predict better 17 times and not worse all the other times on the same entry. Players make a total of 262,142 predictions so the cost per prediction net of prizes is less than $0.40/play. This has to cover credit card charges, 5% at $18, hosting, customer service, fulfillment, development, etc.

The $3.50 costs so much more per entry because the credit card company charges about $0.50 for this transaction vs. $0.90 for an $18 transaction.


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Post If not enough people participate   Posted on: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:05 pm
According to the terms and conditions, players would receive 90% of the face value of the entries they have won and 100% of the face value of their unused entries if the game is halted. This could be $135,000 if someone is stranded at Level 17. I don't think there is too much trouble with this possibility. It only takes $1,000 in sales a day or 56 people paying $18 a day in order for us to achieve 131,000 entries in a year. That could be 800 people playing daily. That's less than 1% of the 135,000 people who registered for the Volvo giveaway last year. If all of them play daily, we'll award a seat every two days after things get going.


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Post If prices drop   Posted on: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:07 pm
As prices drop for space access, we will either have fewer levels or lower entry prices or both. If the prizes are popular, we will introduce new prizes for orbital and lunar orbital and whatever else the fulfillment vendors come up with.


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Post Odds of winning a state lottery   Posted on: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:10 pm
The odds of winning the powerball are lower than your chance of getting struck by lightning.


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Post when to fly   Posted on: Mon Apr 03, 2006 10:15 pm
Rocketplane has reserved a block of seats for spaceshot customers including some during their first six months of flight which are scheduled to commence for commercial customers in summer 2007. This is scheduled to be a year ahead of when Virgin Galactic revenue flights will be offered.


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