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Slashdot draft: Prediction markets and space development

Posted by: NeuronExMachina - Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:43 am
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Slashdot draft: Prediction markets and space development 
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Spaceflight Trainee
Spaceflight Trainee
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Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 1:25 am
Posts: 28
Location: Pasadena, CA
Post Slashdot draft: Prediction markets and space development   Posted on: Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:43 am
[Here's a bit I'm submitting to slashdot soon. I'd appreciate any suggestions on things to change or tweak.]

Quote:
Although events such as SpaceShipOne's suborbital spaceflights and the upcoming maiden launch of SpaceX's privately-built Falcon I orbital rocket have caused many experts to predict what the future of the commercial space market is going to be like, many of these views tend to be radically different from each other. The Space Review has an article by Dr. Sam Dinkin where he proposes using information aggregation markets (also known as idea futures or prediction markets) to aggregate the forecasts of professional and armchair experts, producing a more accurate view of the future of commercial spaceflight. These types of markets, where traders essentially 'put their money where their mouth is' and profit from accurate predictions, are arguably the most effective means of predicting future trends and events. Possible securities could include the predicted launch costs, the strength of carbon nanotube cables, and the number of private astronauts in a particular year. With such a system in place, entrepreneurs, investors and policy makers would have more reliable information on what to expect from commercial space activities and how to best invest in them.


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Space Station Commander
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Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2005 1:25 am
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Post    Posted on: Wed Jun 15, 2005 7:44 pm
My only concern about the Alt.space crowd is that the lessons which make for good business don't always appply on the launch pad. The most successful rocket is the R-7 Sputnik launch vehicle--which was built larger than needed--had the force of gov't behind it--and later proved to be quite profitable--and served as Tito's ride.

It is all about infrastructure. Ironically, Sears--back when they were building the Sears Tower, had more of a structure that would have lent itself to private spaceflight.

In todays world where 'brick-and-morter' have become curse-words, the skills just don't match.


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