When do you think the X-Prize will be won?(20 Dec 03 Vote)

Traveler, you obviously have very strong opinions about the relationship of the civil space program to the private space sector. And most of the time, I agree with you. But in this particular case, I've got to disagree with your statement, which almost seems like a conspiracy theory to me.

You make it sound like NASA did not like the idea of entrepreneurial companies succeeding in outer space. But do you actually have any proof that NASA acted for this reason? And more importantly, can you reconcile your claim with the lack of opposition of NASA to Shuttleworth's 2002 space flight, or to the X PRIZE, or to Elon Musk? It would seem to me that either NASA's attitude on this issue was never "evil" to begin with, or has improved lately.

Once again traveler, don't get me wrong. I fully support all the private space stuff. I'm just surprised by your comments. I can sum up my feelings with a aphorism of Napoleon's: "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence."

Whether NASA acted with malice or incompetence, a private Mir with all the benefits and advancement it would have provided is dead. It is easier for NASA to act magnanimously, once they killed Mir.

I wonder how the NASA chief would answer the question, "Did NASA act with malice or incompetence in the crashing of Mir"?

Getting back to the subject, once Rutan or someone else wins the XPRIZE in the next months, we will all be looking to the next step in private space development. If Mir were functioning today, then it would be obvious what the X2 PRIZE would be; launch, docking with Mir, and return to earth safely. Another opportunity lost.

NASA has an opportunity to redeem itself by offering ISS as the destination of X2 and do it all on an out of this world reality TV show.

Amen! Regardless of the mistakes of the past, we can all look forward to the next few months, which should be the most pivotal in space since, dare I say it, 1969, when the recommendations of the Space Task Group (for continued human spaceflight beyond LEO) were rejected. Ever since, space enthusiasts have been complaining about our slow-moving space program. But now, we can take matters into our own hands!

Consider this:
If you ever go to space.com or spaceflightnow.com or the other news site, they always make a big fuss about every single manned rocket launch, because they only happen every few months. But imagine what the situation will be like in 2006, with a suborbital launch probably every day...
The astronaut club will be expanding dramatically...

i think 2006 might be a little optimistic for that, after all each team really only has one vehicle, and i don't think they'll be able to build more than 1-2 more either, and obviously scaled isn't gonna build more SS1s unless they decide to sell them, but i think definitely at least 2 launches a week. in 2010 i think we can safely say that there will be a bare minimum of 1 suborbital launch a day, probably 2-3 most days, and hopefully by that time we'll be beginning to test/launch private orbital rockets too for the x2 prize, assuming that it happens in the first place of course.

Well.... it seems the xprize is hard to predict.... any new guesses ?
I guess now after june 2004 ... kinda end 2004