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Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers

Posted by: Ekkehard Augustin - Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:05 pm
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Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers 
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Post Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers   Posted on: Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:05 pm
This thread is meant to discuss the numbers estimated by Prof. Collins as well as by others which I will post later as a table which I still have to work on by reading documents.

By "discuss the numbers estimated" I mean discussion about chances and risks indicated by them, about customers' requirements of financing a ticket, about market chances and their possible time as well as very much else like that.

Prof. Collins explicitly says that the magazines "The Futurist" and "Canadian Business" recently have quoted the numbers too which I have been quoting from "Wirtschaftswoche" - and the figure quoted is the result of confusion according to Prof. Collins' answer.

Now before I got his agreement to post his answer to me here I already read one of the documents he is referring to in the answer. That document includes a graphic showing the Earth , the moon, orbits with hotels installed and so on - including the number of 5 million passengers. I still have to read the other documents he provides the links to in his answer and I suppose that in one of those documents the number of 20,000$ will be to be read.

These both documents together I suppose to be the cause of the confusion: the authors of the articles in "Wirtschaftswoche", "The Futurist" and "Canadian Business" haven't been sufficiently careful in reading the documents and "Wirtschaftswoche" at least didn't list the links to the documents.

Please read these documents too - completely and word by word.

All the documents contribute to other sections and threads too.

Collins' answer to me:

Quote:
Dipl.-Volkswirt Augustin,
Political Economist,
Hamburg
ea6086@bdvb.de


Thank you very much for your question below.

I'm very pleased to hear of you and your colleagues'
interest in these matters. I have (I think) always
been consistent in my cost estimates, which are
based on the work of engineer colleagues, and
airline-type cost models.

However, there seems to be some confusion here, since I
have never estimated the price of a trip to the Moon at
$20,000 - though this figure has also been quoted in The
Futurist and Canadian Business magazines recently.

My main suggestion for what is feasible in 2030 is in an
illustration which is included in this paper among others:
www.spacefuture.com/archive/space_tourism_recent_
progress_and_future_prospects.shtml

There is some explanatory text about this scenario in several
papers, but the origin is as follows:

As part of the Space Tourism Study Programme of the Japanese
Rocket Society (JRS) from 1993-2002, the price for an orbital
flight was estimated to be 2.95 million Yen. This was based on
the assumption of a relatively "mature" business, in which 52
Kankoh-maru vehicles (50-seater, VTOL, passenger space
vehicles - there is a great deal of information available
on the design) would be built over 8 years, and would each fly
some 300 times/year.

This is a price of about $25,000/passenger at a traffic rate
of 700,000 passengers/year. The engineering cost estimates
for the development and production of Kankoh-maru were
criticised by engineers in Europe (notably Dietrich Koelle)
and USA (notably William Gaubatz and Ivan Bekey) as being
rather high. The Japanese engineers acknowledged that they
were based on the experience of developing the H2 rocket,
which is very expensive. The H2A rocket developed since
then is near to 50% of the cost, and hence the cost of
Kankoh-maru could be significantly less than the above
figures assume. Consequently a price of $20,000/passenger
seems a reasonable estimate at 1 million passengers/year.

The cost could presumably fall further at progressively higher
levels of activity. Hence the basic assumption for the 2030
scenario is $20,000 for a weekend in orbit, of which about
$10,000 would be the return flight to orbit, on a scale of
5 million passengers/year.

NB My 2030 scenario - not really a prediction, since it is
based on actually starting - was first published in 1999 at
the 2nd ISST (International Symposium on Space Tourism)
held in Bremen. So I am not rigid about the 2030 date,
but I still maintain it is possible within 30 years,
once funding was available.


So to come to lunar costs, I have never made any detailed
calculations since my engineering colleagues have not yet had
the opportunity to design even a conceptual system in the
same detail as the Kankoh-maru study. It is perhaps
worth noting, however, that getting to low Earth orbit is
"half way to anywhere" as they say. That is, a vehicle like
Kankoh-maru (suitably modified) if refuelled in orbit could,
in principle, perform a round trip to the lunar surface. So it
is in some ways a smaller technological step beyond low
Earth orbit than low Earth orbit is beyond sub-orbital flights
to 100 km.

In 2003 I was invited to speak about lunar tourism at the International
Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) Conference; the text is here:
www.spacefuture.com/archive/the_future_ ... rism.shtml

This speech seems to have "struck a chord", since it has already
been reprinted in two books so far, and it also led to an invitation
to speak to COSPAR on the same subject. However, you will see
that I do not actually offer an estimate of the price of a lunar trip.

The only other place where I have discussed it is in connection
with a 1996 Nasa illustration of a lunar sports stadium. In order
to compare such an advanced phase of tourism with what I and
colleagues were studying, I suggested a price of $150,000 for a
2-week lunar round trip, at a time when a 3-day orbital holiday
cost $15,000, at a rate of 3.6 million passengers/year:
www.spacefuture.com/archive/artificial_ ... pool.shtml

Until some engineers are able to make a reasonably detailed
study of the various facilities involved, I think this ratio of
about 10:1 between a lunar trip and a trip to low Earth orbit
is a reasonable basis for discussion. Of course, add another
50 years of exponential growth, and it is difficult to say what
will be impossible. But 10 times is a reasonable start; I
have heard arguments for both higher and lower.

There are a couple of other points which are worth noting. The
criticism that space tourism will be a waste of energy is not
conclusive, since by reducing launch costs sharply it will make
the use of space-based resources, including power supply, feasible,
if required:
www.spacefuture.com/archive/synergies_b ... er_supply_
from_space_and_passenger_space_travel.shtml

I am still agnostic as to whether or how power from space may
be used - but it is certainly one possibility for limitless,
CO2-free electric power, and is very synergistic with space tourism
- see also www.spacefuture.com/archive/a_common_co ... _of_space_
transportation_for_space_tourism_and_space_energy_development.shtml
by Professor Makoto Nagatomo, the leader of the JRS study.

By the way, I very much look forward to some serious European
effort in this field. It has been very frustrating that there has
still been so little. You may know that some German colleagues
deserve the honour for holding the first ever International
Symposium in this field in Bremen in 1997. I am still looking
forward to the organisers being allowed to hold the 3rd ISST.
They are as keen as I am, but being space engineers they are
beholden to space agencies, who are opposed to work on this
subject (which is a story in itself).

Interestingly, after the US Space Transportation Assocation
took up the theme with 1-day conferences in 1999, 2000 and
2001, they too gave up through lack of funds due to the shrinking
of the US space industry. (FYI a 2004 FAA document shows US
employment in launch vehicle manufacturing and services falling
from 28,617 in 1999 to just 4,828 in 2002!) So it would be
excellent to have another Bremen Conference.

Anyway, I would be pleased to keep in touch if you are thinking
of trying to move this subject forward in Europe.

As an economist you may be interested in the argument that
space tourism will be of great economic value as a source
of new employment, which I have described at length, eg in
some of the papers referenced in the above papers. This
argument is of no interest to space agencies, but I believe
it deserves more attention by economic policy makers.

Best wishes,

Patrick Collins

Professor of Economics
Department of Environmental Policy
Azabu University


I will add a link to the orginal thread causing my e-mail to Collins by EDIT here.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

EDIT: A scientific economic estimation


Last edited by Ekkehard Augustin on Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Post Re: Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers   Posted on: Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:14 pm
Ekkehard Augustin wrote:
Collins' answer to me:

Quote:
there seems to be some confusion here, since I
have never estimated the price of a trip to the Moon at
$20,000 - though this figure has also been quoted in The
Futurist and Canadian Business magazines recently.



Thanks Ekkehard, that explains everything.


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Post    Posted on: Thu Jun 16, 2005 7:21 am
Hello, Peter,

I am still working on the completed and thus corrected table of numbers - I have read the documents Collins links to completely and word by word except the References.

But did you read the documents Collins sent me the links to? Your quote is that short and isolated.

Collins say in the quoted answer that he estimated the costs for a lunar round-trip at 150,000 dollars and in some of the documentsd he links to he estimates the orbital travel at 20,000 dollars and say that lunar can be assumed to cost 200,000 dollars. So the factor of 1,000 you are not convinced of still is there - in the other thread you have corrected yourself that the factor was 10,000 instead of 1,000.

The documents provide the explanations you asked for so often. Please read them.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:42 am
Ekkehard Augustin wrote:
did you read the documents Collins sent me the links to?
Not yet. I have been too busy the last few days.


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Post    Posted on: Thu Jun 16, 2005 12:19 pm
Here the new versions of the table. I will provide links from these tables to articles and documents but have to do some more work for that.

Additionaly I will provide additional tables by another post too. And just this moment I recognized that I forget to include a special additional "new" number.



Table of amount of customers
Code:
                              07.12.04   19.12.04   21.12.04   19.04.05   
Collins answer to me 10.6.05 
- orb. acc. JRS based on H2   - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc. JRS based on H2A  - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- ret.flight to orb. acc. JRS - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- 3-day orbital holiday       - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
Collins in documents
- orb. acc.Future of Lunar... - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc.Future of Lunar... - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc.Art.-Grav. ..-Pool - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc. Recent Progress   - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc. Recent Progress   - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc. Synergies ...     - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc. Synergies ...     - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- orb. acc. Synergies ...     - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
- lunar acc.Art.-Grav...-Pool - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
Collins as quoted by          - / -      - / -      - / -       - / -     
"Wirtschaftswoche"

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            7000       13000      - / -       - / -     
growth since ...                     
previous date                 - / -       85,70%    - / -       - / -     
previous date
per month                     - / -      171,40%    - / -       - / -     
first date                    85,70%     - / -      - / -       - / -     

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -      - / -      7018         7159     
double-month    1.75%         - / -      - / -      7031         7279     
month           2,1875%       - / -      - / -      7153         7799     
double-month    4.375%        - / -      - / -      7077         7710   
month           0.5%          - / -      - / -      - / -       13262     
double-month    1.75%         - / -      - / -      - / -       13459     
month           2,1875%       - / -      - / -      - / -       14175     
double-month    4.375%        - / -      - / -      - / -       14162



                              25.04.05   2030       dateless    30 years
Collins answer to me 10.06.05
- orb. acc. JRS based on H2   - / -      - / -       700000     - / -
- orb. acc. JRS based on H2A  - / -      - / -      1000000     - / -
- ret.flight to orb. acc. JRS - / -      - / -      5000000     - / -
- 3-day orbital holiday       - / -      - / -      3600000     - / -
Collins in documents
- orb. acc.Future of Lunar... - / -      sev.mio.   millions    - / -
- orb. acc.Future of Lunar... - / -      5000000    - / -       - / -
- orb. acc.Art.-Grav. ..-Pool - / -      - / -      3600000     - / -
- orb. acc. Recent Progress   - / -      5000000    1000000     - / -
- orb. acc. Recent Progress   - / -      5000000    - / -       - / -
- orb. acc. Synergies ...     - / -      - / -      1000000     5000000
- orb. acc. Synergies ...     - / -      - / -       700000     - / -
- orb. acc. Synergies ...     - / -      - / -      5000000     - / -
- lunar acc.Art.-Grav...-Pool - / -      - / -      sev. 100000 - / -
Collins as quoted by          - / -      5000000    - / -       - / -
"Wirtschaftswoche"

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            29000      - / -      - / -       - / -
growth since ...                     
previous date                 123,10%    - / -      - / -       - / -
previous date
per month                      30,78%    - / -      - / -       - / -
first date                    314,29%    - / -      - / -       - / -

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -      4850957    - / -       - / -
double-month    1.75%         - / -      4997873    - / -       - / -
month           2,1875%       - / -      4956277    - / -       - / -
double-month    4.375%        - / -      4956277    - / -       - / -
month           0.5%          - / -      4850957    - / -       - / -
double-month    1.75%         - / -      4997873    - / -       - / -
month           2,1875%       - / -      4956277    - / -       - / -
double-month    4.375%        - / -      4956277    - / -       - / -


please take 21.12.2004 and 19.4.2005 as half month or full month

Links:

Collins

Future of Lunar...
Art.-Grav. ..-Pool
Recent Progress
Synergies



Virgin Galactic

25.04.2005 quoted 25.04.2005
17.12.2005 quoted 19.12.2005
22.10.2004 quoted 07.12.2004
08.06.2004 quoted 07.12.2004

The date after quoted is the date in the table. It wasn't possible to provide the links in the table directly.



Table of prices estimated

Code:
Collins      document   - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       

orbital H2   answer     - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
orbital H2A  answer     - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
orb. weekend answer     - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
orb. return  answer     - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
flight to
3-day orb.   answer     - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
holiday
orbital      Future...  - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
orbital      Recent...  - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
orbital      Synerg.    - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
orb. Yen     Common C.  - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
willing
orb. Yen     Common C.  - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
typical
lunar        answer     - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
lunar        Art.Grav.  - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
lunar        Recent...  - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       

Collins as              - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
quoted ...

Moon                    - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
suborb.                 - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       



Rutan        date of    currently   2010       2013/2014     betwe.2017   
             quote                                            and 2020     
suborb.      07.12.04   100000      - / -      - / -         - / -       
suborb.      24.01.05    30000 -    - / -      - / -         - / -     
                         50000                                                     
suborb.      02.03.05   - / -       - / -      - / -         30000 -     
                                                             40000
suborb.      07.03.05   - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -       
                                                                                 



Virg.Gal.:
Bra.,Wh.                initial     sev. ys.                                             

suborb.      07.12.04   200000      <<100000   - / -         - / -       
suborb.      24.05.05   200000      50000      25000         - / -       



Space Adv.              curr. off. 

act.         02.03.05    12048 -    - / -      - / -         - / -       
                        20 mio.



t/Space      document

orbital      website    - / -       - / -      - / -         - / -





Collins      document   - / -    2030    dateless   start    fall to

orbital H2   answer     - / -    - / -     25000    - / -    - / - 
orbital H2A  answer     - / -    - / -     20000    - / -    - / - 
orb. weekend answer     - / -    - / -     20000    - / -    - / - 
orb. return  answer     - / -    - / -   > 10000    - / -    - / - 
flight to
3-day orb.   answer     - / -    - / -     15000    - / -    - / - 
holiday
orbital      Future..   - / -    - / -     50000    20000000  20000
orbital      Recent..   - / -    - / -     20000    - / -    - / - 
orbital      Synerg.    - / -    - / -     20000    - / -    - / - 
orb. Yen     Common C.  - / -    - / -   1000000 -  - / -    - / - 
willing                                 3000000    - / -    - / - 
orb. Yen     Common C.  - / -    - / -   1800000    - / -    - / - 
typical
lunar        answer     - / -    - / -    150000    - / -    200000
lunar        Art.Grav.  - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -    200000
lunar        Recent...  - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -    200000

Collins as              - / -    2030
quoted ...

Moon                    - / -    20000   - / -      - / -    - / -   
suborb.                 - / -    10000   - / -      - / -    - / -   



Rutan        date of    longer   ultimate
             quote      run      goal
suborb.      07.12.04    7000    - / -   - / -      - / -    - / -   
suborb.      24.01.05   10000 -  - / -   - / -      - / -    - / -   
                        12000         
suborb.      02.03.05   - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -    - / -   
                       
suborb.      07.03.05   - / -    10000 - - / -      - / -    - / -   
                                 15000



Virg.Gal.:
Bra.,Wh.                               

suborb.      07.12.04   - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -    - / -   
suborb.      24.05.05   - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -    - / -   



Space Adv.             

act.         02.03.05   - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -    - / -   



t/Space      document   - / -    - / -   - / -      - / -       

orbital      website    - / -    - / -    3333333    3333333 - / -
                                                  - 5000000  - 5000000
                     


Links:

Collins

Future...
Recent...
Synerg.
Common C.
Art.Grav.



Rutan

14.08.2004 quoted 24.01.2005
02.03.2005 quoted 02.03.2005

7.12.2004 and 7.3.2005 currently not found



Virgin Galactic

23.05.2005 quoted 24.05.2005

7.12.2004 currently not found



Space Adv.

02.03.2005 quoted 02.03.2005



t/Space

website

The date after quoted is the date in the table. It wasn't possible to integrate the links into the table directly.

The price quoted from t/Space has been got by dividing the price listed at their homepage by the numbers of pssengers which range from 4 to 6. It has been done because the other numbers in the table are per passenger but not per flight while t/Space has given a price per flight.



Some of the years are calculated as if operations will begin in 2005 - despite the fact
that they tend to begin in 2008 at Virgin Galactic. The operations of Virgin Galactic are delayed by regulations obviously and The vehicles will be ready after two or three years earliest.

Especially such delays cannot be incorporated into Collins' estimations - because the delays weren't known then. Additionaly those estimations are estimations of an order of magnitude - which can be seen by the fact that the numbers of customers are given in full millions. Factual numbers mostly look like 4997873.

Both these tables only show potentials but no actual amounts.

Please note that Burt Rutan as an engineer gets nearly the same results as Bransons and Whitehorn (is one of the bother an engineer?) and the Economist Collins.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

EDIT: interesting number added: t/Space


Last edited by Ekkehard Augustin on Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.



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Post    Posted on: Thu Jun 16, 2005 2:57 pm
Hi Ekkehard,

I have read some of the documents, especially http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/the_ ... rism.shtml .
Collins is assuming lunar flight will cost on the order of 10 times as much as LEO, which seems reasonable to me. The big problem is how to get from Dennis Tito’s $20,000,000 flight to the hoped for $20,000 orbital flight, a 1000 times cost reduction, which would allow a $200,000 lunar flight. To do this Collins refers to the Kankoh-maru SSTO VTOL passenger vehicle. So we are back to Andy’s 28 page document and any other Kankoh-maru information we can find. These documents will have economic and engineering information. I will be primarily interested in the engineering information; does the proposed vehicle sound possible. Could it operate frequently and safely without extensive maintenance. The space shuttle was supposed to do exactly that, but as we know, it can’t. If the engineering looks OK to me, I’ll just accept your judgement on the economic estimations.


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Post    Posted on: Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:09 pm
The documents Collins gave me the links to as well as the 1997-paper the authors of Andy Hill's document refer to contain references to papers about the Kankoh-Maru.

Nearly each of the documents refers to those data. I didn't follow all the links and references but the documents I read all refer to engineers and to Kawasaki (for example).

Please follow the references and serach at the comapnies listed in the documents. You will find the data I think. And the 1997-document itself says a little bit about the properties of the Kankoh-Maru.

I am already thinking about starting a new thread in the Technology section.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Fri Jun 17, 2005 9:51 am
I have modified the price listed by t/Space in the table in the third post from this one. The modification was required because t/Space lists a price per flight while the other numbers in that table are prices per passenger.

The fact that the CXV will carry 4 to 6 passengers according to t/Space means that the price per passenger is the price per flight listed divided by the number of passengers.

So a passenger flight to orbit by the CXV would cost between 3333333 and 5000000 dollars per passenger only instead of 20000000.

I have added the links to documents an darticles too.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Fri Jun 17, 2005 11:12 am
Peter, please have a look to www.xprizenews.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1346 .

There will be additional links to technical informations provided in the documents Collins listed the links to.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Sat Jun 18, 2005 4:12 pm
Here the tables still to be posted

I. Table of Collins' data
II. Table of Costs of Flight
III. Table of Number of Flights (4 continuations)
VI. Timetable

Links still to be added



I. Table of Collins' data

Code:
               Nr   Base        passengers   population   tourists   
orbital        1                per year                           
JRS                 exper. H2    700000      - / -      - / -     
JRS                 H2A rocket  1000000      - / -      - / -     

orb. weekend   2
JRS                 - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     

orb. return    3                                          
flight to
JRS                 - / -       5000000      - / -      - / -     
                                                                   
3-day orb.     4                                          
holiday
                    - / -       3600000      - / -      - / -     

2-week lunar   5
round trip
conn. 1996          - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                                                                   
Nasa ill.lunar
sports stadium
                                          
orbital        6                                       
Future..            - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                                                                   

                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       millions     - / -      - / -     
Art.Grav.           - / -       3600000      50000      - / -     
Recent...           - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       1000000      20000      - / -     
Synerg.                                          
                    - / -       1000000      - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                    - / -        700000      - / -      - / -     
                    - / -       5000000      - / -      - / -     
Common C.                                             
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                                                                   
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     


lunar          7                                          
Future..            - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     
                                                                   
                                                                   
Art.Grav.           - / -       - / -        10000   ~6000     
                    - / -       sev.100000   - / -      - / -     
Recent...                                             
                    - / -       - / -        - / -      - / -     



(continuation 1)
               Nr   Curr.   remarks    $ or Yen   remarks   2030 or   
orbital        1                                            30 yrs   
JRS                 $       - / -        25000     - / -    - / -     
JRS                 $       - / -        20000     - / -    - / -     

orb. weekend   2
JRS                 $       - / -      - / -       - / -    20000     

orb. return    3                         
flight to
JRS                 $       - / -      - / -      incl.in   >10000   
                                                  WE in orb.
3-day orb.     4                         
holiday
                    $       - / -       15000     - / -     - / -     

2-week lunar   5
round trip
conn. 1996          $       sugg.when   150000    - / -     - / -     
                            4 is val.
Nasa ill.lunar
sports stadium
                                          
orbital        6                      
Future..            $       $10bill.     50000    - / -     - / -     
                            F&D

                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
Art.Grav.           - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
Recent...           $       20000        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -                     
Synerg.                                          
                    $       - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -        - / -    - / -     - / -     
Common C.                            
                    Yen     will.       1000000   - / -     - / -     
                            to pay   to 3000000
                    Yen     typ.        1800000   - / -     - / -     


lunar          7                         
Future..            - / -   - / -       - / -     - / -     - / -     
                                                                     
                                                                     
Art.Grav.           - / -   - / -       - / -     - / -     - / -     
                    - / -   - / -       - / -     - / -     - / -     
Recent...                            
                    - / -   - / -       - / -     - / -     - / -     




(continuation 2)
               Nr   pass. per   popul   prices     prices    remarks
orbital        1    year 2030   2030    start at   fall to
JRS                 - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
JRS                 - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -

orb. weekend   2
JRS                 - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -

orb. return    3                         
flight to
JRS                 - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -               
                   
3-day orb.     4                         
holiday
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -

2-week lunar   5
round trip
conn. 1996          - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                   
Nasa ill.lunar
sports stadium
                                          
orbital        6                      
Future..            - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                   

                    sev.mio.    - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -         
                    5000000     70000   - / -      - / -     - / -
                    - / -       - / -   20000000   - / -     - / -   
                    - / -       - / -   - / -       20000     - / -
Art.Grav.           - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
Recent...           - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                    5000000     70000   - / -      - / -     - / -
                    5000000     - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                   
Synerg.                                          
                    - / -       - / -   - / -       20000    - / -
                    5000000     - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
Common C.                            
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
                   
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -


lunar          7                         
Future..            - / -       - / -   high       progr.to  10x LEO
                                                   to perh.
                                                   200000
Art.Grav.           - / -       - / -   - / -      200000    10x LEO
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      - / -     - / -
Recent...                            
                    - / -       - / -   - / -      200000    10x LEO






II. Table of Costs of Flight

Code:
                Base                     Currency   Costs
Collins
orbital         
Space Tourism   experience H2 rocket     Yen         2950000
Study JRS
Space Tourism   experience H2A rocket    Yen        signif. < 2950000
Study JRS

t/Space
orbital         - / -                    $          20000000





III. Table of Number of Flights (4 continuations)

Code:
                  per year   seats   kind   lifetime   prod. scale   
                                            in years   per year     
                                                                   
vehicle
Collins
-answer
Kankoh-maru       300        50      VTOL   - / -      - / -
JRS               300        - / -          10         8
                                                                   
                                                                   

WHEN PHYSICS...
base of calc.     - / -      - / -   - / -  - / -      - / -
history           - / -      - / -   - / -  - / -      - / -

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Wh.
"SS2"
07.12.04          - / -      4       HTOL   - / -      - / -
19.12.04          - / -      4       HTOL   - / -      - / -
25.04.05          - / -      4       HTOL   - / -      - / -

Rutan
SS1               - / -      2       HTOL   - / -      - / -

t/Space
CXV               - / -      4 - 6   HTVL   - / -      - / -



(continuation 1)
                  prod. scale    remark         minimum number       
                  per year of                   pass./yr, required   
                  eng. of veh.
vehicle
Collins
-answer
Kankoh-maru       - / -          - / -          - / -
JRS               96            potential of   >=100000             
                                 cost red.
                                 mass prod.

WHEN PHYSICS...
base of calc.     - / -          - / -          - / -               
history           - / -          - / -          - / -               

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Wh.
"SS2"
07.12.04          - / -          - / -          - / -               
19.12.04          - / -          - / -          - / -               
25.04.05          - / -          - / -          - / -               

Rutan
SS1               - / -          - / -          - / -               

t/Space
CXV               - / -          - / -          - / -



(continuation 2)
                  flights   currency   feas. price acc.market     
                  per day              res. JP, CAN, GER, US     
                 
vehicle
Collins
-answer
Kankoh-maru       - / -     - / -      - / -
JRS               10        $          20000                     
                 
                 

WHEN PHYSICS...
base of calc.     - / -     - / -      - / -
history           - / -     - / -      - / -

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Wh.
"SS2"
07.12.04          - / -     - / -      - / -
19.12.04          - / -     - / -      - / -
25.04.05          - / -     - / -      - / -

Rutan
SS1               - / -     - / -      - / -

t/Space
CXV               - / -     - / -      - / -



(continuation 3)
                  add. pass.      add.flights   total   orb.laun.    suborb.laun.
                  per year        per year              since 1957   since 1957
                 
vehicle
Collins
-answer
Kankoh-maru       - / -           - / -         - / -   - / -
JRS               100000          2400          - / -   - / -
                 
                 

WHEN PHYSICS...
base of calc.     - / -           - / -         1000    - / -
history           - / -           - / -         - / -   4700         about 22000

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Wh.
"SS2"
07.12.04          - / -           - / -         1750    - / -
19.12.04          - / -           - / -         3250    - / -
25.04.05          - / -           - / -         7250    - / -

Rutan
SS1               - / -           - / -         - / -   - / -        3

t/Space
CXV               - / -           - / -         - / -   - / -



(continuation 4)
                  suborb.laun.
                  since 1957
                 
vehicle
Collins
-answer
Kankoh-maru       - / -
JRS               - / -
                 
                 

WHEN PHYSICS...
base of calc.     - / -
history           about 22000

Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Wh.
"SS2"
07.12.04          - / -
19.12.04          - / -
25.04.05          - / -

Rutan
SS1               3

t/Space
CXV               - / -



The seats for "SS2" and SS1 are listed without the pilot's seat.
The total number of flights of "SS2" is the number of customers divided by the seats
of "SS2" listed without the pilot's seat.

Please note that the number of flights used as base by WHEN PHYSICS is significantly
below the total number of flights of "SS2" calculated.



VI. Timetable

Code:
             orbital            lunar orbital   lunar
Future.. If  between     Then   earlier than    between
             2013 + 2018        2023            2018 + 2023



Links still to be added by EDIT



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Fri Jul 01, 2005 11:22 am
To breath some life into all the numbers and tables:

Table "I. Table of Collins' data" (1. table in the 10. post from the initial post) says that according to Collins the number of passengers for the Moon can be estimated at several 100,000 per year while the lunar population can be estimated at 10,000 6,000 of which will be tourists.

Compare this to the other numbers of tourists given by the table - they are between three times and ten times those 6,000 or ten times the (several) 100,000 . So the degressions of costs and economies of scale achieved orbital that time won't be achieved lunar that time. Collins said in his answer to me that he did no analysis of lunar tourism comparable to orbital tourism. Consequently it can't be considered to be impossible that comparable degressions and economies could be achieved lunar - it should be analysed if they are achievable. Orbital tourism needs to be established previous to that simply.

The same table says too that Collins currently thinks that a lunar trip will cost between 150,000 $ and 200,000 $ - at a time when there will be 6,000 tourists at the Moon per unit of time and several 100,000 lunar tourists per year. Ten times the price to orbit at a number of lunar tourists which is a tenth of the number of orbital tourists.



Next compare Collins' 150,000 $ to 200,000 $ for the lunar trip to the current price for a suborbital trip to be payed to Virgin Galactic which too is 200,000 $ (Table "Table of prices estimated" - 2. table in the fifth post from the initial post). Currently Virgin Galactic has 100 contractors which means that 200,000 $ is a price consumers are willing to pay - for a suborbital trip. A suborbital trip is much less than a lunar trip - so
is seems to be very probable that there will be consumers buying lunar tickets. So currently it doesn't make sense to consider the difference between 20,000 $ and 200,000 $ to be essential. What's really interesting is the difference in what the consumer gets for his 200,000 $ - a large if not huge difference. It seems that the future lunar trip may be more pricy than the current suborbital trip.



Table "III. Table of Number of Flights" in the 3. table in the 10. post from the beginning of the thread shows that the possible number of flights calculated on the base of registered people at Virgin Galactic is significantly above the number of flights Dinkin, Jurist and Livingston based their study on.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:57 am
To add some further comparisons.

According to recent articles like "Japan Embraces Space Tourism" ( www.space.com/missionlaunches/050818_sp ... tures.html ) Space Adventures offer a moon-round-trip at 100 million dollars - two commercial seats.

They offer also orbital trips at 20,000,000 dollars.

So a moon-round-trip is offered at five times the orbital trip. If this is applied to Collins' numbers a moon-round-trip would be at 100,000 dollars in two decades - Collins estimates that orbital trips could could be to be had at 20,000 dollars then.

So the application of the 5:1-relation to Collins' numbers results in a price for a lunar trip which is half the price Collins told me he would assume for a lunar trip in 2030 - 200,000 dollars.

This is a comparison only - to illustrate the relations. I am looking for more numbers which enable me to consider this all in the Accumulation-in-detail-thread too.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Sun Sep 25, 2005 2:52 pm
It may be a weak comparison but it is an interesting comparison: costs or prices calculated in the threads about the accumulation in deatil and the Costs of a CXV launch versus numbers listed in the tables I posted earlier in this thread.

1. Suborbital flights

That the published price for a suborbital flight by one of Virgin Galactic's vehicles after the first 400 to 500 tickets sold will be at the level they estimated earlier is known since long: They talked about $25,000 in 2013 or 2014 and they announced $20,000 after 400 to 500 tickest sold. So the real price seems to be 20% less than the estimated already.

Really interesting are the variable costs. By the data published I found out that they aren't higher than $121,000. Since the number of passengers per flight and vehicle is 7 the variable costs per passenger are $17,285.714. Burt Rutan estimated $10,000 to $15,000 as ultimate goal and $10,000 to $12,000 in the longer run. Obviously the variable costs I found are just $2,000 above his estimated upper boundary as uötimate goal - that's is less than 20% of the upper boundary he estimated.

Of course - I didn't include the fixed costs here. I will try to include them later - the fixed costs per flight depend on the number of flights over lifetime of a vehicle.



2. Orbital flights.

The propellant costs whonos calculated for the CXV - in the thread about its launch costs were somewhat above $78,000. The CXV can carry 4 to 6 people. So the propellant costs per person are around $13,000 to $19,500. That's close to the $15,000 to $20,000 Collins estimated as final price for an orbital flight.

Again the fixed costs aren't included yet - plus additional varible costs like those for the up to now expendable booster.



It will be interesting to have an analytical look at the conclusions for a lunar flight - I will look for an approach.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:00 pm
Here I am using the results of the weak approach in the CXV-thread for trying to have a better look onto at where
the costs of an orbital tourist trip may be currently perhaps.

First I am using data reported by articles.

The CXV must be considered to have at least one competitor - Space Adventures using Soyuz. Another company could
evolve itself to a second competitor - SpaceX. The launch costs of the Falcon V may increase if it would be used
for a manned launch but there are no data available concerning this. So I am using their current Falcon V launch
costs.

I am using a price policy similar to Virgin Galactic's suborbital price policy. The difference is that I assume
two groups of passangers only - founders and others. Thus is due to the low number of flights required to cover
the investment into the CXV. When the founders are all flown the depreciations are covered completely.

Code:
persons   CXV flight    per       price      revenue     revenue    num.
          costs         person    less than              - costs    fli-
                                  competitor                        ghts

                             - competitor Space Adventures using Soyuz -

4         20000000   5000000   19000000    76000000   56000000   7.14
6         20000000      3333333   19000000   114000000   94000000   4.26

                                - competitor SpaceX using Falcon V -

4         20000000      5000000   15000000    60000000   40000000   10
6     20000000      3333333   15000000    90000000   70000000   5.71


Obviously the total depreciations can be covered after five to eleven flights. In the CXV-thread I calculated that
if the flight costs would be used instead of any price 21 flights would be required to amortize the budget. So I
can assume the life time of the CXV to be 21 flights at least - obviousy the depreciations can be covered long
before that life time is terminated.

So there is a number of flights left which can be done at lower prices.

Let's assume that the costs are the booster and the propellant only. Then the costs per flight are $10,377,330. Per
person these would mean $2,594,333 if four persons are flown in one flight or $1,729,555 if six persons are flown.
This is around the $2,500,000 Interorbital Systems have said their flights will cost.

The result is that today - in 2005 - the costs for an orbital trip would be $1.7 million to $3 million. There is a
chance to drop this until 2030 by making the booster - costing $10,301,128 - reusable, It then would have to be
depreciated simply and included into the calculations done here. This wouldn't increase the number of flights before
profit zone - or it would increase that number by 1 only.

The costs calculated already include $2,575,282 for the booster in the 4-person-case - which means that the
reusability would drop the costs for an orbital trip to $19,051 in that case! In the 6-person-case $1,716,855
are included into the price and resuability would mean a drop down to $12,700! Remember - no wages etc. are included
here - the price would have to be above these numbers.

Result: The CXV assists Collins' estimation that orbital flight may cost $20,000 in 2030.

I will try to get better insights, data etc.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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Post    Posted on: Sat Oct 22, 2005 6:14 pm
The article "Clear skies for Virgin spaceliner" ( news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4365612.stm ) which Sigurd has linked to from the news apge of this board is reporting a new number of potential customers registered at Virgin Galactic. I incorporated that number into the table of customers.

Here it is:

Table of amount of customers
Code:
                              07.12.04   19.12.04   21.12.04   19.04.05   
Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            7000       13000      - / -       - / -     
growth since ...                     
previous date                 - / -       85,70%    - / -       - / -     
previous date
per month                     - / -      171,40%    - / -       - / -     
first date                    85,70%     - / -      - / -       - / -     

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -      - / -      7018         7141     
double-month    1.75%         - / -      - / -      7031         7247     
month           2,1875%       - / -      - / -      7155         7640     
double-month    4.375%        - / -      - / -      7077         7982   
month           0.5%          - / -      - / -      - / -       13262     
double-month    1.75%         - / -      - / -      - / -       13459     
month           2,1875%       - / -      - / -      - / -       14189     
double-month    4.375%        - / -      - / -      - / -       14823



                              25.04.05   21.10.05   2030       dateless   
Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            29000      34000      - / -       - / -
growth since ...                     
previous date                 123.10%     17.24%    - / -       - / -
previous date
per month                      30.78%      2.87%    - / -       - / -
first date                    314.29%    485.71%    - / -       - / -

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -       7358      4850957    - / -       
double-month    1.75%         - / -       7634      4997873    - / -       
month           2,1875%       - / -       8712      4956277    - / -       
double-month    4.375%        - / -      13493      4956277    - / -       
month           0.5%          - / -      13665      4850957    - / -       
double-month    1.75%         - / -      14178      4997873    - / -       
month           2,1875%       - / -      16179      4956277    - / -       
double-month    4.375%        - / -      25058      4956277    - / -       



                              30 years
Virgin Galactic:
Branson, Whitehorn            - / -
growth since ...                     
previous date                 - / -
previous date
per month                     - / -
first date                    - / -

found by my own theoretical experiments:                                                   

growth period   growth rate                  
month           0.5%          - / -
double-month    1.75%         - / -
month           2,1875%       - / -
double-month    4.375%        - / -
month           0.5%          - / -
double-month    1.75%         - / -
month           2,1875%       - / -
double-month    4.375%        - / -


As can be seen by the calculated percentage the growth of the number of the potential customers registered at Virgin Galactic is decreased down to a level above the highest monthly growth rate I used in my theoretical experiments.

This means that the rate is a sane one now which could be kept in the future - I wouldn't wonder if the lowest rate I used would be broken for some time.



The absolute number of registered potential customers is still high above the highest experimentally calculated number but approaching it due to the decrease in growth rate.



Please not: I modified some of the results of my experiments - I may have done an error or unconsciously done a slight change in the method.







Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


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