Page 2 of 2 
[ 23 posts ] 
Prof. Collins' answer and estimated numbers
Author  Message 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
The article "New Mexico Spaceport: Getting Down To Business" ( www.space.com/news/060102_nm_spaceport.html ) is reporting that Virgin Galactic estimates that
Quote: some 50,000 customers will fly into space in the first ten years of operation I am not sure yet if this number has to be added to the tables or not. The reason is that the numbers about customers are reported to be registered people at Virgin Galactic while the 50,000 could only be assumed to be registered. Additionally the estimation has been reported in connection with the New Mexico Spaceport. This might mean that the number includes customers who are not known to nobody up to now. But the number might be indicating that the number potential customers registered at Virgin Galactic is 70% of the whole market only  if the last reported number of 34,000 registered people is used and rounded up to 35,000. This also might mean that the growth rate is underestimated by the number of registered people. The flight rates I use in the Accumulationthread would mean that between 3,500 and 21,000 customers are flown per year. 3,500 would mean that the ten years quoted are required to fly 35,000 people  which would be only 1,000 more than registered. to cover the remaining 15,000  1,500 per year  too Virgin Galactic would have to apply a flight rate of around 700 per year. This is far from the number of flights required to make 3,000 people astronauts within five years as they have been reported to have said recently. I will think about how to handle the 50,000 within this thread and the tables. Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
In between I got an intersting relation of numbers in the Lunar Siyuz flightthread.
While at five passengers a flight into the orbit via the CXV the ticketprice of that flight would be $ 4 mio because the flight for all five passengers together would cost $ 20 mio the ticketprice for a lunar roundtrip would be $ 33 mio to $ 37.5 mio. the relations are 8.25 and 9.375. The relation between the price of the orbital ticekt estimated by Prof. Collins et al. at $ 20,000 and the lunare ticketprice Prof. Collins listed in his answer to me to be $ 200,000 is 10. So in the Lunar Soyuz flightthread I got a relation close to the relation Prof. Collins got. In doubt his relation will be closer to reality than mine I think. But the Lunar Siyuz flightthread doesn't include a landing while Prof. Collins seems to have in mind a landing (or several and repeated ones since there ar scientific articles by him researching lunar sports etc. Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
In between my calculations in the Lunar Siyuzflightthread resulted in numbers of between significantly less than $ 170,000 and $ 300,000 in the longer run. This includes the thought also that SpaceDev's vehicles could be used instead of a financially CXVlike vehicle.
Given these numbers simply seems to indicate that based on numbers provided by developers NOW  t/Space, SpaceX, Apollo, SpaceDev  I can get the price Prof. Collins estimated for the 24 YEARS IN THE FUTURE  for 2030. In so far the numbers I got seems to assist Prof. Collins. But it is to early yet to argue this way since the calculations don't consider no orbital flight around the Moon and no landing on the Moon  they only consider one flight around the far side of the Moon All in all the check still isn't complete. Those number below $ 200,000 I personally would prefer to consider to be too low  meaning that Prof. Collins' $ 200,000 are significantly closer to the reality of 2030. Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
In between there athere are first results showing that the price I can calculated for a toursitic lunar landing really still is at the level the roundtrip price is.
The price is above the price Prof. Collins lists in his answer to me  but this might have to do with the number of passengers he has in mind. I am limited to five passngers and one pilto by apllying a financially CXVlike vehicle. Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
Today an article under www.welt.de is reporting that a third of all Germans would fly into space if they had the opportunity. 69% of all interviewed people would be willing to pay Euros 10,000 maximum for a flight. The poll has been done by MPG Solutions/GfK, Frankfurt on Main.
Euros 10,000 are $ 12,780 today. The flight into space isn't specified and so I don't know if the people interviewed are thinking of suborbital, orbital, lunar or Science Fictionlike. The poll didn't have to do with Prof. Collins but may be assisting him regarding the suborbital price in 2030 since the maximum simply would force the price down if the people don't increase the maximum. May be that the remaining 31% don't have such a maximum in mind which then really would assist Prof. Collins. Let's assume that there are 81 mio Germans. 31% of these are 25.11 mio Next assume that only a half of these are adults then 12.555 mio are left and of these take less than 10% as those that might be wealthy enough  1.2555 mio. And these are all potential customers  not actual ones yet. Since this is the presence and Germany only I again think that this assists Prof. Collins estimation of the customers he got via market research. ... Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
Just this moment I had a look into the initial post but didn't find yet what I was looking for  so I will continue the search later. But I found the former mentioned relation of 1:10 between the earthian orbital trip and the lunar round trip.
This ratio I got earlier already in the Lunar Siyuzthread. In betwen I got a least proice for the landing trip  that price is $ 240,000 at present  1:10 earthian orbit:lunar landing. Of course no propellant price and no depreciations aren't included yet. But this result is very close to Prof. Collins' number(s). A look into the tables posted in the Lunar Siyuzthread reveals that the number of passengers has an impact on the ticket price that springs to the eyes. Since Prof. Collins published document about particular equipments and buildings for touristic events and of thousands of people being on the Moon it can be assumed that in 2030  the year Prof. Collins is estimating price and costs for  the number of passengers will be significantly above 5. This together with the result(s) in the Lunar Siyuzthread means that there is reasonable propability that Prof. Collins' $ 200,000 will turn out to be extremely close to reality. Please keep urgentlyy in mind that the numbers got in the Lunar Siyuzthread are values of or for indicators only but no way predictions. forecasts or estimations. The vehicles made use of are indicators only  I don't have in mind that they are used really. I only was out on looking what numbers will be got that way  I wanted to get numbers as a base. The check isn't finished yet no way  the depreciations etc. will be interesting. Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
By the calculation of the depreciations required in turned out that the upper boundaries required to keep the costs/prices at the level listed in the previous posts are ranging from 8,500 people to 22,000 people.
So it is worth the time to look into Prof. Collins' documents to compare his numbers to these ranges. At present I don't have the time to do so but I will do it later  it will last until I checked the numbers I got in the Lunar Soyuzthread. Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Moderator
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745 Location: Hamburg, Germany 
Since Virgin Galactic have published by the Newsletter  to be read in the News part of this board and linked and referred to in the Accvumulationsthread  that they in between have more than 60,000 registered people I enhanced the table about the number of customers.
AAss e numbers show the number of registered people not only continues to be ahaed of the numbers required for Collins' estimation for 2030 to come true  the gap is enhanced and ahead of the requirements even in percentages again. So still the numbers point to Collins' 2030number  but of the 25 years are 1.67 years are gone only up to now... Interesting here also  the number is ahead of the number of contractors Virgin Galactic apply in the business plan. This might be a sign also... Table of amount of customers (2 continuations) Code: 07.12.04 19.12.04 21.12.04 19.04.05 Virgin Galactic: Branson, Whitehorn 7000 13000  /   /  growth since ... previous date  /  85,70%  /   /  previous date per month  /  171,40%  /   /  first date 85,70%  /   /   /  found by my own theoretical experiments: growth period growth rate month 0.5%  /   /  7018 7141 doublemonth 1.75%  /   /  7031 7247 month 2,1875%  /   /  7155 7640 doublemonth 4.375%  /   /  7077 7982 month 0.5%  /   /   /  13262 doublemonth 1.75%  /   /   /  13459 month 2,1875%  /   /   /  14189 doublemonth 4.375%  /   /   /  14823 (continuation 1) 25.04.05 21.10.05 26.08.06 2030 Virgin Galactic: Branson, Whitehorn 29000 34000 60000  /  growth since ... previous date 123.10% 17.24% 76,47%  /  previous date per month 30.78% 2.87% 7,65%  /  first date 314.29% 485.71% 757,14%  /  found by my own theoretical experiments: growth period growth rate month 0.5%  /  7358 7735 4850957 doublemonth 1.75%  /  7634 9081 4997873 month 2,1875%  /  8712 10817 4956277 doublemonth 4.375%  /  13493 20705 4956277 month 0.5%  /  13665 14364 4850957 doublemonth 1.75%  /  14178 16864 4997873 month 2,1875%  /  16179 20088 4956277 doublemonth 4.375%  /  25058 38452 4956277 (continuation 2) dateless 30 years Virgin Galactic: Branson, Whitehorn  /   /  growth since ... previous date  /   /  previous date per month  /   /  first date  /   /  found by my own theoretical experiments: growth period growth rate month 0.5%  /   /  doublemonth 1.75%  /   /  month 2,1875%  /   /  doublemonth 4.375%  /   /  month 0.5%  /   /  doublemonth 1.75%  /   /  month 2,1875%  /   /  doublemonth 4.375%  /   /  Dipl.Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist) 
Back to top 

Page 2 of 2 
[ 23 posts ] 
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests 