Burt Rutan

The SS1 design is definitely specifically for sub-orbital flight and will need to be completely remade almost for orbital, but I don't see that as a problem. They may have to design a new ship for orbital flight, but that doesn't mean that they won't be able to use SS1 for several different things, namely long-range flights. The way I see it, an air-launch ship with unpowered glide landing is perfect for a trans-oceanic flight, whereas armadillo's or canadian's rockets would have to make quite a few modifications to travel halfway around the world.

In Armadillo's case, what modifications are you referring to?

I think there are. There are people here that have expressed their explicit wishes for him to fail.



Black Armadillo is intended solely as an X-Prize contender, with commercial products requiring more development. This has been stated in their weekly reports. Scaled will research the affordability of the system, counting in every bit needed for established business. Also, because of this, Scaled's spacecraft and ground control & service units are far more complex than those made for Armadillo. There's a profound difference.



Not necessarily true. The shuttle, being a winged craft, will carry much of it's own weight depending on the set angle with the mother plane. The problems could arise with ground clearance and CG, but those aren't issues that require a whole new carrier. Also note that the nacelle track width is FAR greater than the maximum width of the SSO.

Originally posted by Spacerat:


I think ANY of the applicants who succeed, including Rutan, will make a statement to the world about the possibility of private manned spaceflight!

Although I'm 101% in favour of X-Prize initiatives, one thing should be beared in mind - no matter how you want to look at it, spaceflight is still NOT easy, it requires technology and like any common consumer products/devices, it takes time for the technology to filter down to the common John Doe in the street - not anyone can do it. To think that any unqualified person can do it and so lets go do it, would be suicide! As such I feel that, right now, the technology has moved from government level to "Rutan's" level AND anyone on his level. Rutan is not government, he is private and if he succeeds at this MANY can also. And if that happens we will have ourselves a private manned spaceflight industry!!

Ex Astria Scientia

As long as Burt Rutan and the other XPRIZE teams maintain an absolute commitment to safety, there will be a private manned space industry soon. The demand is there with no current supply.

Now there is a once in a lifetime business model.

I know Americans are full of patriotic fervour with Space Ship One (and why not!?) but I think that the suggestions of immenent victory are a little premature. Sending people into space is a risky business and unless things are done slowely and properly fatal errors can easily occur. A stategy of complete perfectionism with an emphasis on safety is necessary, or all that will be broadcast around the world will be a rather unimpressive explosion.

Scaled Composites have generated an air of professionalism that can lead people to making too many assumptions about their success. I think their launch window is far too early to be realistic.

i predict a powered flight on december 17, with a full launch in febuary assuming no huge things like their old cg issue arise.

The more teams that do go to space, the better the chances is for getting humans on the ball.

ha ha .. or off the ball

that's a good one

Rutan did another drop test on 19 Nov. That's only 5 days after the previous test.

On Scaled Composites website at http://www.scaled.com/projects/tierone/index.htm , they seem to indicate that any planned SpaceShipOne suborbital flight to coincide with the Dec. 17th, 100-year anniversary is purely media speculation.

However, their flight schedule does seem to be accelerating. There are obviously some valuable lessons being learned. They are wise not to raise expectations.

So that's why my SPACEDEV stock shot up yesterday. Engine must have worked well.

Is there anyone out there that honestly thiniks that Burt Rutan will not win the xprize? I just wish it were more of a competition. Two or three (or more) different teams launching within a couple month period would be ideal. Like many (I think) I worry that Scaled will win and then quit. I would love for them to announce further plans at the time of their (inevitable) success, but that would not be very characteristic of them.