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Burt Rutan

Posted by: spaceboy - Wed Jul 16, 2003 7:50 pm
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Burt Rutan 
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Post Re: who will win?   Posted on: Wed Jul 30, 2003 6:00 pm
skybum wrote:
Erm, no_way... and anyone else who might be tempted to engage with "alien invader"... it won't work. You see, I recognize in "alien invader"'s post a favorite old net-kook. ... will only say that for me, mr. Smythe is more fun than a barrel of monkeys in a centrifuge.

Ok, thanks for the heads up :)


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Post    Posted on: Wed Jul 30, 2003 8:05 pm
Alieninvader may have an agenda, but I think he highlights an important point. There is a deadline for winning the prize, and the odds of the first team to try, making it, are pretty slim. If you review Armadillo's work, you can see how humidity and weather effect performance. To win the prize you have to launch twice in two weeks. Which means that you have to be within your weather envelop twice within two weeks. For the balloon assisted entries how are they affected? In took a number of trys to get around the world non-stop...and weather had a lot to do with the success/failure.

The first launch will be a great achievement. But to win the prize you have to do it twice.


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Post My two cents...   Posted on: Fri Aug 01, 2003 1:02 am
We all will be the winners!!! These individuals are paving the way for you and I to go up and we must give them our full support! I do have to say that Burt is "the favorite" right now. He has the name, the image and the hardware. The other teams are damn good too! My hat's off to ALL of them!

The future of Space Tourism is FINALLY here! It is only a matter of time boys and girls....I can't hardly wait! :twisted:

Vini Vidi Vici

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Post    Posted on: Sat Aug 02, 2003 10:24 am
It would be nice if Starchaser industries could win. However I think the Space ship one/Black Knight combo from Rutan will take the prize.

I suspect Starchaser realise this and are instead aiming to be the first team to launch a manned space vehicle on a sub orbital trajectory up to 100 kilometres but with only one man. And in doing so, go down in the history books of space flight.

What I want to happen least of all is see Canadian arrow succeed. The X Prize is about small independent teams coming up with new ideas for cheap reliable space flight. NOT rehashing Nazi terror weapons which killed thousands and thousands of people!!!


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Post    Posted on: Sat Aug 02, 2003 8:56 pm
Anonymous wrote:
What I want to happen least of all is see Canadian arrow succeed. The X Prize is about small independent teams coming up with new ideas for cheap reliable space flight. NOT rehashing Nazi terror weapons which killed thousands and thousands of people!!!


Just for your information, all modern launch vehicles in US, Russia and China grew up from the same V2 cradle. Gagarin flew on Koroliov-designed R7, wich was just couple steps away from R1, the exact Soviet replica of captured German V2. Moon missions were done by the same von Braun, father of V2. All Chinese rocketry is based upon R2, the first Soviet R1/V2 modification, transferred to China in sixties.

The point is that if someone hits you with a bat, you don't blame baseball, but the person who did it.


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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 03, 2003 2:52 am
I have to admit to having some of the reservations "Guest" has about rehashing the V-2. Even though from a purely logical position a rocket is a rocket, there's something irksome about rehashing a nazi terror weapon along much of the original specs. I think the Canadian Arrow team could have their potential victory embroiled in controversy if they publicise too much that their rocket is directly based on the V-2. A lot of people will react emotionally to that.


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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 03, 2003 4:00 am
"I think the Canadian Arrow team could have their potential victory embroiled in controversy if they publicise too much that their rocket is directly based on the V-2. A lot of people will react emotionally to that."

They'll probably react the same way I did when I found out that the Redstone, Atlas and Titan were rehashed nuclear missiles. (which were, as Stranger said, themselves derived directly from research on captured V2s by the captured scientists who created them) That is to say, I was thrilled to see someone took something bad and did something good with it. To (roughly) quote Arrow's team leader - "I think Hell will get a little hotter for every Nazi each time we launch."

I also didn't hear anyone screaming about how we should ban that evil weapon of destruction, the Boeing 767, after 9/11.


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Post    Posted on: Sun Aug 03, 2003 10:02 am
Anonymous wrote:
What I want to happen least of all is see Canadian arrow succeed. The X Prize is about small independent teams coming up with new ideas for cheap reliable space flight.


X-Prize is about small independent teams coming up with applied methods of cheap reliable space flight, not ideas. We have plenty of ideas, in fact there are so many that they cost a dime a dozen ( the bandwidth you use to google em up ). What matters is execution. And thats what Canadians are doing, taking an idea and putting it to work.
After all, V2 has to be the most successful mass-produced rocket in history, and mass production is one of the widely proposed methods to make space flight affordable.
Ideas we have had, we need people who make ideas a reality. You can just sit and google out at least ten different major schools of thought for CATS. So far, nobody has made any of them work. The people competing for X-Prize and actually bending the metal to make stuff work are the real heroes.

Like it was stated earlier, practically all todays liquid-fuelled rockets can be traced back to work done by germans in WWII, simply because they were first to employ rocket technology widely for transportation. This doesnt mean that XCOR's EZ-Rocket should be banned or frowned upon ( *gasp*, it runs on LOX and alcohol as did V2 )


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Post Burt Rutan at Oshkosh   Posted on: Sun Aug 03, 2003 11:21 pm
Burt Rutan went out to the EAA Airventure airshow in Wisconsin and held a few heavily-attended forums in which he discussed SpaceShipOne. You can find an article about his talk byclicking here.

One interesting quote from the article: "If people can see that a little shop in the desert, using zero help from NASA, can do it, then they'll know they can do it, too. You just need the courage to try risky concepts."


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Post    Posted on: Fri Aug 08, 2003 5:50 am
Thanks for sharing the article "The Legionnaire"

I found the following press release regarding the rocket motor test.

POWAY, Calif., Aug. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SpaceDev (OTC Bulletin Board: SPDV - News) successfully completed its full duration hybrid rocket motor test for SpaceShipOne, the final test under the current phase of SpaceDev's contract with Scaled Composites in Mojave, CA. SpaceDev is competing to be the provider of rocket motors for SpaceShipOne.....

The rest of the release can be found at this link

http://www.spacedev.com/newsite/templat ... hp?pid=432

Cheers

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Post More flight tests!   Posted on: Fri Aug 08, 2003 6:00 pm
Yep, Rutan is clearly the frontrunner. If you go over to the SpaceShipOne webpage, you will see some of the most recent flight tests of the vehicle:

July 29, "Captive Carry Two"
Once again, the SpaceShipOne is lofted into the sky by the White Knight, but this time, there's a man inside the spacecraft.
Image

August 7, "Drop and Landing Test One"
This time, SpaceShipOne was dropped, and glided in to a landing at Mojave airport.
Image


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Post    Posted on: Sat Aug 09, 2003 6:43 am
John Carmak has made the point that a 2-stage airplane-based system is vastly more technically complex than the approach he's taking, which is true enough. It's just not possible to design, build, and fly airplanes in your sleep... unless you're Burt Rutan. Given how much experience he has, the rules that apply to everyone else just don't apply to him.

I am anticipating that Rutan will begin doing short rocket-powered SS1 flights by the end of the Summer, and full-blown space shots by the end of the year. So far, he seems perfectly on track to make the Write Brothers' Centennial, and to win the X-Prize. Armadillo, Da Vinci, and Canadian Arrow might get people in the air by then, but it won't be to full altitude, and/or it won't be repeated within two weeks.

My money is on Rutan to win this thing.


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Post Poll data   Posted on: Sun Aug 10, 2003 3:38 pm
skybum wrote:
My money is on Rutan to win this thing.


Everyone on this message board seems to think so, but if you check out the X-Prize poll, with 3281 votes cast, the numbers are,

7.41% Armadillo Aerospace
15.7% Canadian Arrow
53.76% Scaled Composites
13.14% Starchaser Industries
7.04% A team not listed
2.96% None

So nearly half of all the voters didn't pick Rutan. Do they know something we don't?


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Post    Posted on: Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:12 pm
I don't think it's a question of do they know something we don't... but more of... do they not know something we do :)

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Post    Posted on: Mon Aug 11, 2003 10:33 pm
Yeah, I think that marketing campaigns have as much to do with people's guesses at who will win the prize, but those don't necessarily correspond with reality. Starchaser is a good example -- they have excellent PR, but as far as I can tell, they have yet to begin to work on full-size hardware yet. Given that their "Thunderbird" design is one of the more complex in the competition (several stages, massive ground support infrastructure), it's not realistic to imagine them launching in less than three years. And it's almost impossible to imagine someone else *not* launching in that time.

Still, there's always the possibility that Scaled might get knocked out of the race due to an accident or some other unforseen event. So, if I had break down the odds of who will win, it would look something like this:

Scaled Composites -- 60%
Canadian Arrow -- 10%
Armadillo Aerospace -- 8%
Da Vinci Project -- 5%
Somebody Else -- 17%

In the "Somebody Else" category, I would include the teams that we don't often hear from. Some of them are *much* more serious than anyone suspects. But I still think that Burt has an almost overwhelming lead.


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