Community > Forum > Wirefly X Prize Cup > Who has finished designs?

Who has finished designs?

Posted by: Rob Goldsmith - Wed Jun 30, 2004 4:08 pm
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Who has finished designs? 
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Post Who has finished designs?   Posted on: Wed Jun 30, 2004 4:08 pm
Hey just wandering if there still is a chance that Rutan may not have this in the back. I think i remember hearing that

Space Transport Corp' are have a 100% completed craft now
Canadian Arrow have 100% completion bar some tests

How many of the other teams actually have vehicles that could in theory be flown to 62 mark?

Anyone care to guess dsome percentages of completion of final xprize entries?

Fair to start off with SS1 being about 100% complete i guess!
What about HARC?

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Post    Posted on: Wed Jun 30, 2004 8:01 pm
Armadillo's there, minus some testing.

Barring any huge testing problems, they could do it by the end of this year.


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Post    Posted on: Wed Jun 30, 2004 10:10 pm
Excuse me if i'm missing something but isn't this a bit of a pointless question. Which team is going sit on a full working ship (100%) and not launch? This is a competition and there's no second prize.

By definition, no team apart from scaled has a vehicle they think could go up yet simply because they haven't yet launched.

I haven't seen much of STC but the latest updates i've seen put them way behind the field.

Again, Candian arrow don't give much info away but they do say they are going to start tests in august, I just wonder whether this is a Da Vinci style announcement though.

I don't think that there are many teams any where near 100%, as far as I can tell that's only Armadillo and Canadian Arrow that APPEAR close. That does not mean necessarily that they are going to be the first to get to 100%. Many teams are good at talking up their chances so it is difficult to tell what is the truth.


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Post    Posted on: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:19 am
Aahh.... to correct my last post it seems that the new x-prize newsletter shows they do have a vehicle nearly ready, oops.


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Post    Posted on: Fri Jul 02, 2004 3:13 am
Nova wrote:
Excuse me if i'm missing something but isn't this a bit of a pointless question. Which team is going sit on a full working ship (100%) and not launch? This is a competition and there's no second prize.


That's easy, any team fighting the red tape could be forced to sit on a full working ship and not launch.

Although I think despite that Scaled is the only team with a fully assembled ship. I would say that my favorite Armadillo has 3/4 of a ship at any given time but with them that can be quite deceptive. Before being forced to abandon the crushable nose cone ship I would have said they had about 90% if not more. If you were to look around their shop you might guess that it was closer to 1/4 of a ship since they can take stuff apart very quickly. They could probably toss together 4 or 5 flying vehicles within a week or two if they wanted to, using everything they've got stashed at their shop. Although I would think they could only assemble 2 vehicles capable of being manned. They might be short on some of the electronics for more than one or two but engines, tanks, wiring and aeroshell stuff they've got quite a lot.


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Post    Posted on: Fri Jul 02, 2004 4:21 am
Nova wrote:
Excuse me if i'm missing something but isn't this a bit of a pointless question. Which team is going sit on a full working ship (100%) and not launch? This is a competition and there's no second prize.


There the serious question about permits and certification - Someone *could* be ready to go, but not have all the paperwork and red tape out of the way.
(But that does *not* mean that I think anyone besides Scaled is ready to go at any moment - Armadillo and the others don't seem to be close enough)

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Post Re: Who has finished designs?   Posted on: Tue Jul 06, 2004 4:20 am
[quote="robiwan"]Hey just wandering if there still is a chance that Rutan may not have this in the back[quote]

I think that if anything the X-Prize's winner is even less certain now than it was in June. Remember that the last time there was a "flight test anomoly" for SpaceShipOne (The landing incident on the centennial of flight) it was out for three months. Then it flew for a glide test, then four months after the incident flew again powered. Assuming that they work at the same pace now, that would mean that Scaled wouldn't file for the 60 day notice until mid-October, barely wining the X-Prize in time at the end of December. STC, Canadian Arrow, DaVinci, or perhaps Armadillo could beat them at that rate, but it's extremely difficult to tell who is even remotely close to being ready. Remember that Rotary Rocket claimed that they could be flying into orbit twice a day by early 2000 at one point (And yet there is still no Roton orbital service :? ).

SC has a very passive attitude about the X-Prize. It seems like for them, if they win it, they win it, they don't really care. They set launch dates and fly them, weither they win the X-Prize or return to space in the shadow of the canadian teams. In other words, the answer to your question really is who knows?

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Post    Posted on: Tue Jul 06, 2004 9:10 am
http://www.space-transport.com/?stc=news

STC has been in the running quietly so it seems. They have been steadily increasing the number of test flights of their smaller rockets, probably to shakedown the telemetry. According to them, flight test of the full scaled Rubicon vehicle will take place in the second half of this July. :)

This begs several interesting questions. Firstly, since when did STC obtain a launch license? Second, information on the capsule and rocket design seems pretty sketchy. Nothing in terms of launch escape system. Lighting 7 solid fuel rockets is a Roman candle approach and i really want to see safety features.

Assuming that the July launch is of the real vehicle, it would make the race very very interesting.


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