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SpaceX Dragon to the ISS
SpaceX Dragon to the ISS
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 707 Location: Haarlem, The Netherlands ![]() |
So, the second SpaceX Dragon mission is coming up on April 30th, this time an attempt to deliver some cargo to the ISS. But will it work? Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets!
_________________ Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhere What is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphere Machinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus Last edited by Lourens on Wed May 16, 2012 7:26 pm, edited 5 times in total. |
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Space Station Member ![]() ![]()
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:51 am
Posts: 455 Location: Vienna, Austria, Europe, Earth ![]() |
Lol, thanks for putting a smile on my face!
![]() Ok, serious: I'm not really sure how things will work out. If I remember correctly, I was right in predicting the success of COTS1. But this time there is so much new electronics stuff on board of dragon that could cause problems. As a software engineer myself I know that if software can go wrong, it almost always will go wrong ![]() Most of the like 6 months or so of delays of COTS2/3 are supposedly because of extensive software in the loop testing, so I guess SpaceX did do their homework well, but it still is a complex system that is not yet flight proven (in the complete constellation with trunk, computers, solar arrays, etc..). So my guess is a ~60% to 70% chance of complete success and I think that problems would most likely occur after launch in the "early operations phase" while checking out the dragon. If dragon works as intended, then I'm highly confident, that approach and berthing will go (almost) as planned. ![]() _________________ pride comes before a fall |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 8:47 am
Posts: 521 Location: Science Park, Cambridge, UK ![]() |
I really don't know how much of the in orbit testing was done on the last Dragon flight, so difficult to judge. Did they test manoeuvring? What other tests required for this flight was already done on the previous flight?
Makes the vote difficult to judge. But I've gone with fails to berth. If it does succeed to berth, then I reckon everything else will go to plan. |
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Spaceflight Participant ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:36 pm
Posts: 60 Location: Denmark ![]() |
I think they are going to make it, perhaps some minor glitches, but I think they will complete the mission.
They seem to be getting better and better and really learning from their previous launches, so I think the odds are in their favor. However this is actually rocket science and they are still the new people and even the experienced guys makes mistakes, so I guess we will have to wait and see if they actually pull it off, I'm planning on watching the launch with a few friends over the net, does anyone know where to stream it from? The more sources, the better. |
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Space Station Member ![]() ![]()
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:51 am
Posts: 455 Location: Vienna, Austria, Europe, Earth ![]() |
I guess it will be broadcasted live on nasa tv but I don't know if there is any alternative source.
_________________ pride comes before a fall |
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Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 6:36 pm
Posts: 113 ![]() |
Spaceflightnow will probably have a restream of nasatv, and I suppose SpaceX will also have something on their site.
I went with full success option, with 'Launch successful, some issue during checkout prevents Dragon from attempting to berth with ISS' as my second (though a lot less preferable) choice. Basically if anything looks fishy during the COTS2 programme, NASA will give a 'no go' to proceeed with COTS3 activities... and that's it. One more flight needed to start hauling cargo to ISS. JamesHughes: yes, some manouvering was performed on previous flight, although probably very basic. They had to reorient the capsule for reentry after all (they did some more apart from that). [edit] Oh... and Rogue Dragon scenario sounds at least as plausible as any of the failure scenarios ![]() |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 707 Location: Haarlem, The Netherlands ![]() |
I've extended the poll deadline to May 3rd now, and will keep extending it as the launch date slips. Re-voting is now also enabled, so you can change your opinion if you're losing or gaining faith.
![]() _________________ Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhere What is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphere Machinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2010 2:21 pm
Posts: 547 Location: B.O.A. UK ![]() |
I have just seen that may the 7th is now the target launch date.
_________________ Someone has to tilt at windmills. So that we know what to do when the real giants come!!!! |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 827 Location: Yerushalayim (Jerusalem) - capital of Israel! ![]() |
I say that they're gonna make it.
_________________ “Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.” -Anonymous |
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Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2004 8:30 am
Posts: 236 Location: Perth, Western Australia ![]() |
Hi all. Back again after a bit of a hiatus.
Vote for complete mission success. Going out on a limb as software has proven to be the achillies heel for many ventures not just space, but, SpaceX have delayed quite a bit for this aspect of the mission and Elon has said they won't fly until ready. Presumably May 7th is 'ready' at this point. _________________ Beancounter from Downunder |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 707 Location: Haarlem, The Netherlands ![]() |
I've shortened the voting window by a day (can't do it any more specifically) so that it ends before launch. So, if you want to put in your vote, or change it, do it soon!
_________________ Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhere What is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphere Machinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 707 Location: Haarlem, The Netherlands ![]() |
Awwww. No go! Well, that's what that hold-down feature is for I suppose. We've seen on previous launches that it can be somewhat finicky and conservative, but that's probably a good thing. Wonder what they'll find that triggered it...
_________________ Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhere What is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphere Machinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus |
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Space Station Member ![]() ![]()
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:51 am
Posts: 455 Location: Vienna, Austria, Europe, Earth ![]() |
Elon Musk via twitter:
Quote: Launch aborted: slightly high combustion chamber pressure on engine 5. Will adjust limits for countdown in a few days. https://twitter.com/#!/elonmusk/status/ ... 8222678016 _________________ pride comes before a fall |
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Space Station Commander ![]() ![]()
Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:44 am
Posts: 707 Location: Haarlem, The Netherlands ![]() |
Better safe than sorry I suppose.
_________________ Say, can you feel the thunder in the air? Just like the moment ’fore it hits – then it’s everywhere What is this spell we’re under, do you care? The might to rise above it is now within your sphere Machinae Supremacy – Sid Icarus |
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Space Walker ![]() ![]()
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 5:18 pm
Posts: 124 Location: UK ![]() |
Another tweet from Elon Musk (via SpaceflightNow.com)
"Engine pressure anomaly traced to turbopump valve. Replacing on engine 5 and verifying no common mode." _________________ We love Google. Google is our friend and protector. |
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