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Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?

Posted by: Minthos - Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:06 pm
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Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest? 

How many SpaceX launches before July 01. 2013?
Poll ended at Sat Mar 09, 2013 4:06 pm
0 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
1 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
2 20%  20%  [ 1 ]
3 60%  60%  [ 3 ]
4 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
5 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
>5 20%  20%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 5

Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest? 
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Space Walker
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Post Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:06 pm
From their current launch manifest:
Code:
NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 1   2012      F9/Dragon   Cape Canaveral
NASA Resupply to ISS – Flight 2   2012      F9/Dragon   Cape Canaveral
MDA Corp. (Canada)                2012      Falcon 9    Vandenberg
ORBCOMM - Multiple Flights        2012-2014 Multiple    Cape Canaveral
Falcon Heavy Demo Flight          2012      Falcon Heavy Vandenberg


That's 1 FH, 3 or more F9. Assuming each rocket spends a maximum of 6 months on the pad and they all arrive on the pad within 2012, there should be 4 or more launches before July 01 2013.

Will they make it?


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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:29 pm
Preliminary results are in:

NASA 1: success
ORBCOMM 1 (piggyback): failure
NASA 2: still on manifest for 2012
MDA: pushed back until 2013
FH: pushed back until 2013

So "4 or more" has been reduced to "probably only 2". I'm not surprised or worried, but I wonder what it'll mean for the future.

Number of completed flights:
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 2
2009: 1
2010: 2
2011: 0
2012: 2

Number of planned flights:
2012: 1
2013: 7
2014: 10
2015: 15

Looks like an optimistic schedule. I look forward to the day they launch one rocket every month :)


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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:02 pm
Yep. It's interesting that both of Musks primary ventures are faced with the same problem at the moment: they've got the technology, they've got a product that people want, but they have to scale up production big time in order to really capitalise on those things. It's all about execution now, and there's a difference between scaling up a manufacturing plant and an Internet company. Can Musk do it? We'll know more in a year or so...

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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:48 am
July 1 has come and gone, final number is 2.

Updated numbers (delta in parentheses):

Number of completed flights:
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 2
2009: 1
2010: 2
2011: 0
2012: 2
2013: 1 (+1)

Number of planned flights:
2012: 0 (-1)
2013: 5 (-2)
2014: 12 (+2)
2015: 15
2016: 6
2017: 2

One launch completed, two launches pushed back. I think 5 more rockets rolled out in 2013 is optimistic as usual. More flights will be pushed back to 2014, and when 2014 comes with its >12 launches they will have to push everything back because 12 launches in 2014 sounds very optimistic.

Falcon Heavy demo flight has been pushed back to 2014. I wonder if they did that to prioritize paying customers or if the delay is caused by FH itself?


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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:52 am
As far as I can tell, Cassiope wasn't on the manifest. So now we have 2 completed launches in 2013, and still 5 on the manifest.


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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Mon Nov 25, 2013 5:38 pm
New manifest numbers while we wait for the SES launch:

2013: 4 (-1)
2014: 12
2015: 15
2016: 6
2017: 3 (+1)
2018: 1 (+1)

So my prediction is already coming true. 1 launch pushed back to 2014 already, and the launches after it also pushed back because 2014 is already crowded.


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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Mon Nov 25, 2013 8:35 pm
And here is link to their webcast page http://www.spacex.com/webcast/

about hour and 25 mins to go from posting

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Post Re: Will SpaceX stick to their 2012 manifest?   Posted on: Sun Apr 06, 2014 11:47 am
I just had a new look at the manifest. Here's the new and the delta:

Number of completed flights:
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 2
2009: 1
2010: 2
2011: 0
2012: 2
2013: 4 (+3)

Sum: 13

Number of planned flights:
2013: 0 (-4)
2014: 14 (+2)
2015: 15
2016: 6
2017: 3
2018: 1

Sum: 39

A total of 4 missions were completed in 2013, of a planned 7. We're already 1/4 into 2014 with 0 launches yet. If they're going to reach the target of 14, they'd better hurry up. My prediction is they will miss their mark by a lot as usual. I guess they will up the pace from the 4 last year to maybe 6 this year, and the rest will be pushed back. Whenever they finally manage to launch every month or more, they'll have a huge backlog of delayed launches.


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