First crewed flight of Ares I/Orion?

When do you think will be the first crewed flight of the Ares I/Orion combination?

Currently the official date is 2015 but Hillary Clinton e.g. said that she wants to speed up the development.

Also the US Senate wants to give NASA an additional $1 billion, part of that sum for shortening the gap between the retirement of the Shuttle and the first crewed flight of Orion.

So what do you think?

Will additional funding even help? Or is the development fixed to "normal" engineering cycles, for example for the J2-X upper stage engine?

The original in service date was supposed to be 2014 but since NASA is already saying 2015 at this early stage then I think that it is highly probable that there will still be further delays and 2016 looks a better bet.

As for Hillary Clinton wanting to speed things up, I'll believe it when I see it (never take anything a politician says seriously). Also just because the senate wants to give NASA extra money does not mean they will get it and the wrangling back and forth between congress and the senate is likely to cause more financial problems for NASA as it will probably delay when it knows what money it is going to get.

Even with the money, who says money will make things go faster? Look at the Toyota F1 team. Biggest budget in the field and look how fast they are going

About as fast as Dutchmen with caravans

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSafllCNkDo

Couldn't resist

Extra money would definitely speed things up. Griffin has said that the only reason it is scheduled to take so long is insufficient money to go faster.

A new development:
NASA now wants to launch Orion in 2013 with a crew (http://spacefellowship.com/News/?p=3423)

Here's the latest from Nasaspaceflight.com, same old story I'm afraid. More delays, not enough money, technical problems etc.

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=5335

Seems to me that if COTS actually produces a craft capable of ISS crew rotation they will be able to drop half a dozen Orion flights to the ISS and free up a stack of cash to use on the lunar program. With NASA unlikely to get much extra money I see little hope of them reaching the moon by 2018 unless COTS works out.

Basically it's currently a bit on a hold, wait and see status as the next US Presidental elections are this year. For example Democrat Hillary Clinton wants to boost science in general and in particular space. Republican Rudy Guiliani expressed similar plans for NASA during his visit in Florida a few days ago.