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How many years John

Posted by: Dan Frederiksen - Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:42 pm
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How many years John 
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Post Bot Alert!   Posted on: Mon Sep 21, 2009 10:57 pm
Sorry to go off-topic here... actually never mind, being off-topic seems to be the topic in this thread.

It just occurred to me that the creator of this thread could be a bot. If any of you remember the old Eliza program, it would take keywords from the response of the person interacting with it, shift them around a bit, plug them into a question and use that as it's next contribution to the 'conversation'. Here's a link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA

Now I'm not suggesting that this bot is as simple as ELIZA, I'm considering that it may be a highly sophisticated piece of software. It can possibly use search engines to find topics related to what the human users of this forum are talking about, this would give the impression that it is drawing upon previous experiences or memories to expand the scope of the conversation.

However, all the bots that I have experience with have many limitations. They have a limited variety of sentence constructions, usually preprogrammed. There are procedural libraries which can construct somewhat random sentences which could pass for human generated, but they sometimes output gibberish or nonsense. These limitations fit perfectly with the scenario we have here.

This bot uses phrases like 'think', 'or is it', 'sigh', 'I'm a Genius' and 'you are afraid of the truth'. All of these phrases could be injected into a conversation at any point and be mistaken for something you'd expect a compete asshat to type, instead of a bot. Which brings me to the point of this bots 'personality'. If somebody was trying to create a bot which passed the Turing Test, I think it would be much easier to program a bot that put forwards nonsense arguments and disagreed with everybody it interacted with. If the bot was to agree with others on certain points, the nuances of its interactions with them might give away the fact that it was a bot. IMO it would also be difficult to program a bot that could become friendly with someone. Hence the designed personality of the bot we see here is programmed with a variety of adversarial comments, which are there to ensure that nobody would ever try to become friends with the bot. Constantly arguing with someone is a far simpler process than having an intelligent discussion, but it is sufficient to pass a Turing Test. Take the simplistic structure of the dialog in this Monty Python sketch as an example. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teMlv3ripSM

It's also possible that this bot is still under development. I think that the author of this script/program started this thread manually. Then when he got a response on the forum, he ran the botcode against it and possibly used parts of the bots output to carry the conversation on for another few posts. After the thread had taken off and some data had been built up, it should be safe enough to let the bot post the replies directly to the forum. I'm sure that the author of the bot keeps checking this forum from time to time to see the progress. If I was the author I'd be damn proud of myself for fooling a bunch of people into talking to a computer program for so long. Well done sir!

Finally, who would write a program like this and why would they pick on John Carmack in the first place. Well I can't answer that one too certainly, but John is involved in a software company that creates games which contain (troll-like) monsters which behave is a way which could be interpreted as intelligence. This threadbot claims to be involved in the development of a rendering application, claims to be interested in AI, architectural visualisation, etc. Someone inside iD software perhaps. This last part is pure supposition.

If anyone would like to try adding logic bombs to the thread, or perhaps bits of perl, php or python code in case the bot is interpretted and doesn't sanitise its inputs, feel free. The thread can't really drift any further from the whole point of this forum than it already has. I'll start.

You can't prove that this sentence is true.



johno


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 12:21 am
ok, well after following this thread for a while, (and the previous Dan-o thread) I have a definition i would like to share with you all


* Main Entry: big·ot
* Pronunciation: \ˈbi-gət\
* Function: noun
* Etymology: French, hypocrite, bigot
* Date: 1660

: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance

courtesy of http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bigot
this word has a lot of stigma to it, and is not one to be used lightly, however, i believe this suits the occasion.

Engineering is about facts, about numbers. yes, gut feelings and intuition play a huge role. But when it comes to a topic like this, where people are making unfounded claims and lashing out at others and yet never backing up their claims with hard data, engineering does not seem to be involved.

now one more very VERY critical thing I have learned about engineering, especially in my (so far) short time as a contractor to NASA, (your opinions of which, Dan, are unfounded and misguided) is that being open minded is KEY. That means to both being able to give your opinion a tactful and intelligent manner, and being able to fully listen and consider the opinions and facts of others.

If you are not open to discussing facts and ideas and are not willing to take criticism of your own ideas, you will not get very far as an engineer. pure and simple.

now Dan, that is not a go ahead to criticize Carmack et al.

The above statements do not just apply to engineers, but to anyone who is trying to get somewhere, or to get something done. You have to be able to work with people, to be tactful and polite. To be respectful of their opinions and then they will likely be considerate and respectful of yours.

So, Dan, work with me here. Let's knock off the religious/ upity bull and get down to brass tacks.
here's a little something to think about with your 10kg satellite. First up, atmospheric distortions do play a massive factor in optics and image resolution. second, ok, you have your satellite. How are you going to power it, and for how long? 10 kg isn't going to get you much battery space, nor will it give you much space/weight for other power systems.

Then of course comes the little issue of beaming your HD images back to a ground station. There, you need a transmitter with a high enough power and bandwidth (mass and space there) and also the ability to track to a ground station (more mass). now I know you are thinking "those things don't have very much mass." and by themselves they may not. but all these subsystems add up very quick.

ooooo. lets not forget about thermal protection as well. In orbit you have some pretty good temperature differences to deal with.

now the structure of the satellite is something of serious consideration to take into account as well.

Don't forget the fact that you have to account for the structures used to protect the satellite in its transition from ground to orbit, which not a very clean ride at all.

Now I know there are a lot of systems that I am forgetting, but that is why there is a design process with multiple engineers working together.

would i like to see a satellite with that kind of resolution in use by the public? sure, why not. If anything it would allow me to have good, up to date images to make trail maps out of. on the same token though i do not believe that it will be a 'world changing' thing.

oh, and on a last note before i end this particular rant. when it comes to Rocketry adn the space business, Economy of Scale is a huge factor.

thanks for hearing me out

Mike


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 12:36 am
I actually had that exact same thought today. All of Dan's responses are very Eliza like. One problem I see is that Dan showed up around this time last year which can mean one of a few things:

1: Dan is actually a bot that is part of an annual college software project.
2: Dan's prescription benefit in Denmark's public health program reaches it's cap in August and he has to wait until October to get his medication again.
3: Dan is lonely and has problems making friends. The debate here is the closest thing he has to friendship and human interaction. He'll keep replying as long as we do.

A true genius wouldn't waste his precious time with a thread like this, and I suspect that's the real reason Carmack hasn't replied (aside from the inane question Dan first put forward).


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:56 am
Mike, solar panels/film. already stated that. I would go with an omni antenna so no tracking is needed onboard. I believe without doing the math that a relatively low power omni antenna can be picked up with a 2meter tracking dish on the ground at 250-500km range with enough bandwidth to carry adequate image quality. radio circuitry can be very light. if done right. so can a color imager btw... maybe you'll get the reference.

and I know there's several things to consider for a satellite but that's not the issue. the issue is the lack of vision to go.

and I'm not wrong about nasa either. if it was a matter of subtle flaws with nasa it might be debateable but they are huge mistakes. gross persistent incompetent leadership and likely deliberately corrupt in key places. are you willing to consider you could be wrong. you speak of tolerance yet you call me a bigot..
how overt can the mindlessness be...


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:52 am
Quote:
No, Rob, I'm actually quite the genius.


Pardon me, while I laugh out loud. :roll:

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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 11:21 am
Mandos wrote:
Quote:
No, Rob, I'm actually quite the genius.


Pardon me, while I laugh out loud. :roll:


:lol: i think I'll join you on that one

ok, yes NASA has some problems, most of which stem from the budget (corruption? how do you come up with that?) handed and dictated to them by CONGRESS. NASA has very little control over its budget (something very likely to get worse now that Obama is in office). It may seem like a lot to some people but $18 billion dollars is not much money to be 1) Operating and maintainging the Space Shuttle / associated infrastructure, 2) operating, maintaining, and constructing the ISS and associated infrastructure. 3) Operating the Dozens of other major programs (the mars Rovers, and various space telescopes for example) 4) Aeronautics research 5)pushing to further science and do what they can to give children and students something to aspire to. 5) not to mentions so many other programs.....

$18 billion isn't squat, especially when the government dumped more than $1 Trillion into that Wallstreet "bailout' thus thwarting capitalism. ($40 billion to ACORN was a part of that bull if I remember) But I digress....

If you want top blame someone for NASA's shortfalls, blame congress and the previous administrations for not having the vision and the cajones (sp?) to fund our nation's future and the dreams of its children. While I dont typically like Obama, I hope he will not be so short sighted in his upcoming decision on NASA's future.

Oh btw.... you definitely do not have a grasp of communications systems. to paraphrase a great movie character, I do not think that works the way you think it works. (Kudos to whomever gets that ;) ) Being and Electrical Engineer, I can't help but look at that statement and cringe. Throwing numbers out like that and hoping that they'll look good enough to impress a few people does not work. you have to know you're audience. Now If you had instead shown me a woprksheet with all your calculations backing up your statement, that would be different. And don't bother saying 'Well you're an EE why don't you do the calculations and tell me that I am right.' You're a big boy, you can do it yourself.

Now... with regards to Armadillo, there definitely seems to be something you are clearly not understanding and/or misinterpreting. you claim that its a lack of 'vision' that you are striking out against. Ok, fine, well lets get some background in on this to help support your claim. This time with HARD DATA.

lets assume that you could indeed build that telescope, and that you could package it so that it could get to orbit and deploy. How much do you think it would cost Armadillo to develop and implement an orbital shot? And yes, this is a serious question. I really do want to see where you are coming from on this. Because like it or not, Money is the root of all this. Money is what allows them to buy parts, fuel, and to hire the people they need to get the job done. And don't spout off that 'Well Carmack has all this money....' Let's eliminate that from consideration for the moment.

So here are the kicker questions Dan. How much do YOU think it would cost them to put your satellite into orbit (include cost of infrastructure and overhead as well)

now how much do you think that they ACTUALLY have available to fund their current program?

I await your reply

Mike


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 1:19 pm
Dan Frederiksen wrote:
Mike, solar panels/film. already stated that. I would go with an omni antenna so no tracking is needed onboard. I believe without doing the math that a relatively low power omni antenna can be picked up with a 2meter tracking dish on the ground at 250-500km range with enough bandwidth to carry adequate image quality. radio circuitry can be very light. if done right. so can a color imager btw... maybe you'll get the reference.

I spent 10 years designing, building and installing long range digital wireless networks. Even at the end of that time, I was still learning new things every week which were helping me to improve the results I was getting from the equipment. Something that doesn't improve the results from the equipment is sitting on your ass and imagining what might improve the performance. I had to put on my waterproofs and climb the towers or roofs with my tools and DO SOMETHING. Quite often it was the wrong thing, but the fella that never made a mistake, never made anything.

Not that having any actual experience of anything counts for anything in this thread. It'd be much more relevant if I had taken a double dose of meds and went to sleep to have some vivid dreams about magic mirrors. This nonsense about omni antennaes and tracking stations on the ground is just more evidence that the 'plan' isn't coherent at all. There are a number of technical reasons for this, but I'm not going to waste my time giving an arrogant asshat any information that he can use to inflate his own measurement of how much he knows. Lets just say that omni antennaes don't actually work the way Dan 'imagines' them to work, how inconvenient.

During the time I was building my wireless network, I often though about how much easier it would all be if I only had 1 satellite to help me out in the tricky areas where it was hard to get a signal. I also thought about how I would design that satellite, the conservative construction costs came out at over 100 times the cost of a ground station. The whole idea of sending solar panels into space to capture em radiation and then pissing that power away by broadcasting more em radiation in random directions makes me throw up a little bit.

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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 2:56 pm
Mr. Carmack,

If this waste of bytes of a thread has in any way caused you alarm or to question your ideas and endeavors, I'd like to remind you of what Mr. Einstein said -
Quote:
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.

Despite what has been said by some here, your efforts Mr. Carmack are neither wasted, nor unappreciated.

Anyone who adds to our knowledge in the effort to reach the stars, gives to mankind his greatest future, and greatest hope.

Mankind continues to breed as if it matters not, and someday this planet will run out of raw materials and resources.

If we wait until then to try and reach the stars it will be far too late.

A yardstick by which one might measure the possible effects of these RRL fellows, would be to consider what dividends the sidelight of auto racing has, and continues to have, on the automobile industry as a whole.

No part of any auto today has not been vastly improved by the existence and efforts of auto racing enthusiasts.

It is my hope that the RRL has even a small fraction of the impact on space travel that auto racing has had on cars and personal transportation.

Go Armadillo!

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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:16 pm
Hi Dan,
Here's a nice quote from the bible that talks both about killing and jesus:
"If there should arise among you a prophet or a dreamer of dreams, and he gives unto you signs or wonders; And the brings the sign or wonder which he said unto, such: let us go after different gods which you don't know, and worship them.
Don't listen to the words of that prophet or the dreamer of dreams because the Lord, your God, is testing you to know if you love the Lord your God with all your heart and all your soul. After the Lord, your God, you shall go, and you shall fear Him, and His commandments you shall guard, and in his voice you shall listen and to Him you shall worship and to Him you shall attach yourselves.
And that prophet or dreamer of dreams you shall put to death, because he strayed from the Lord your God, who took you out from the Land of Egypt and who redeemed you from the house of bondage to take you from the path which the Lord, your God, commanded you to go by and you shall remove the evil from within you (Dvarim, the fifth book of Moses (Deuteronomy?) 13:2)
We killed jesus, we're proud of it, and if he comes back, we'll kill him again!

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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:56 pm
SuperShuki wrote:
We killed jesus, we're proud of it, and if he comes back, we'll kill him again!


Please keep your religious ideas to your self and don't try to step on other people's toes. If i were a mod a statement like this would enough for a permanent ban.

Would be the same as a German claiming to be proud of killing millions off Jews... Dan is just a nut case but this.. well, I leave it up to the mods.

cheers.

c.


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:09 pm
Very Very Very thin ice, so thin in fact that water is coming through!

I am suggesting we leave religion alone for now! Any more pottentially offensive statements and we will start taking things further.

It stops now!
Please respect this.

Robert

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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 5:16 pm
Good. Boring subject anyway. :P

Go Armadillo!


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:04 pm
SuperShuki wrote:
Hi Dan,
We killed jesus, we're proud of it, and if he comes back, we'll kill him again!


:)
still you are mindless and stubborn. when he returns it will be Ghandhi 2, no more mr nice guy. on that day the chance for repentence will have passed and nothing will be able to stop him and all will be judged and the world will end. there will be no place for you if your name is not in the book of life.

choose wisely my young foolish friend. God has visited punishment on your people for your stupidity many times before. this time it will be final.


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:08 pm
Dan

Read my last post, the subject has been dropped. Please leave the religious arguing alone, If you two are that bothered then go into a chat room or PM each other. Just leave it from the forums. Last warning

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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 22, 2009 6:28 pm
MFL, I shouldn't really dignify your comments but the answers might be generally enlightening to others.

What I base my intuition on is iirc a value of 25Watt transmission power from an astra tv satellite covering a continent with several analogue tv channels each one capable of carrying HDTV and that can be picked up nicely with a 60cm dish from 36000km away. what I'm proposing is a single channel or maybe half speed from about 1/100 that distance and picked up with a 2meter dish or even bigger. I think I'm on solid ground when I believe it can be done easily.

as for cost I would develop a bare minimum IP based relay tracking station based on cheap commercial consumer products and I would look for cost free partners like universities willing to host a station and enthusiastic trusted members of the public. a cheap motorized dish, a small controlling PC and an internet connection would allow AA to control it through various points across the globe. those areas not covered by a station will be tasked for autonomous operation of the satellite and downlinked when the next station is in range.

similarly I would look to willing universities for developing the satellite itself, perhaps a competition where the first and best will be sent up or maybe the few best. I would suggest a reference design or salient points required. I believe that some universities will rise to the challenge if given the prospect. alternatively parts of the satellite could be developed that way, for credit or a little money or perhaps barter with telescope time for the university.


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