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How many years John

Posted by: Dan Frederiksen - Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:42 pm
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How many years John 
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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 15, 2009 8:02 pm
I'll chime in here.

I think you are an idiot. A very clever idiot, there is a lot of truth in what you say, but you still appear to be astonishingly naive and to have piss poor people skills, and that makes you an idiot. I believe this to be true for a strict subset of all available definitions of the word 'idiot'.

Perhaps you will learn to moderate your arrogance. It would greatly aid you in your interactions with other people.


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:28 pm
Dan Frederiksen wrote:
to head off the nasaesque trend at AA of drawing the real goals out into eternity, how about you set a year at which point you must have a vehicle in orbit or else you will all publically acknowledge that I was right and you have failed miserably.

AA choosing and missing an arbitrary deadline would not prove you "right". At most it would only prove AA wrong about their ability to meet their own arbitrary deadline. If that is your definition of "failed miserably" then fine, but nobody else seems to share it with you.

Talk is cheap. If talk could fuel rockets then NASA would have colonized most of the observable universe by now. That doesn't seem to have happened so apparently results actually do matter. Proposing specific launches and payloads means nothing if you don't have any means to carry out your plan or any investor willing to buy into it. It's just more talk. It's very convenient to demand that someone else invest the time and resources needed to prove you right or wrong but nothing in reality works that way.

SpaceX is, what, 50 times the size of AA? No kidding they have a more advanced rocket. John has said several times in his updates that AA just isn't big enough to buy the ideal parts and materials and equipment that they would wish for. But that's not the point. NASA has already shown what can be done with a unholy budget, SpaceX is showing what can be done with a "merely" huge budget, AA is trying to reach orbit on a more modest budget.

John doesn't want to quit his job as a game developer to go all-out on rockets. He has always been honest about that. AA isn't fast enough for you but they aren't trying to be the fastest. Feel free to go heckle SpaceX instead.


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Post Why not   Posted on: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:42 pm
I hear what you are saying minthos and I recognize the bravery. but you are wrong. I am perfect, flawless, brilliant and modest. no sense of humor though :)

but seriously, as I said to the other who suggested I work on people skills (because how dare I criticize anyone), if you can facilitate AA's shift in focus to recognize the potential in lean orbital fligths and aggresively go for it then I will concede that I could have done better.

until such time, I believe with some certainty that all the sour grapes against me here is merely petty people getting angry that I dare criticize their idols and getting further angry at me for pointing out that failing in them, as a defense to all their attacks.
The truth of my message was simply not welcome and the failure was not mine. The message was provocative but that's because it was not the first time I have suggested it and their initial failure to hear it meant that my choices were limited to a more poignant point or to accept that AA would perhaps never go for orbit.
While you may not want to hear this either, it is simply not unheard of that truth carried by an individual was not welcome through no failure of that individual. There was this one guy back in the day, they treated him really poorly and he did nothing wrong :)

if you would just think about it for a moment you would realize that on that day you would be glued to the screen, wetting your pants, looking at the live video feed from an AA satellite in orbit and all that is actually possible because a camera can weigh a matter of grams (a fraction of an ounce) and the size of the rocket depends on how much weight you want to bring up. orbit really doesn't mean huge rockets like spacex. it really doesn't. they could bring up a house with their rockets. they could bring up several hummers with one rocket. I'm just suggesting a camera.

I'm right about all the technical difficulties. it really can be done and it really is quite easy for AA to do. so join me in asking AA nicely, please go for orbit asap. at least do the math John and see how easy it actually is with your current capabilities. I'd hunch that with their normal leisurely pace they could succeed in about a year. if they really went for it I'd say the rocket could be ready in a month or two. And if John himself declared this to be their goal you would all be exstatic, right?

We choose to go to orbit by the end of this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy but because they are hard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouRbkBAOGEw


Last edited by Dan Frederiksen on Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.



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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:44 pm
Actually, I think you need to go read up on the N-Prize. There are dozens of teams doing what you suggest right now. So no points for original thought.

Meanwhile, how is that fundraising going?

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Post Re: Why not   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 12:03 am
Dan Frederiksen wrote:
.... (because how dare I criticize anyone)....


Hi Dan!

How about people criticizing you and your car? Do you dare to say "Hey, maybe you're right and I was wrong". Ready to treat people with respect instead of telling them they are mindless? Ready to actually open your mind and maybe learn something instead of judging people?

With all the traces you left on the internet you showed non of the above...

But...still looking forward to discuss your freerider :wink:

cheers,

c.


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:24 am
I'm new here, but I must confess that I cannot see why Dan is so concerned about what AA does, or why he thinks that AA has to do anything.

Let me offer some perspective. Roughly 50 miles from Caddo Mills Municipal Airport, the City of Arlington spent 1.5 BILLION--that's BILLION, with a "B," or 1.5 x 10^9--dollars to build a new--get ready for this--football stadium. That's right. Not a cure for cancer. Not an experimental plant to make us energy independent. Certainly not an orbital rocket. They spent that money to build an entertainment center. If some millionaire wants to spend a few million dollars building rockets to compete in contests, perhaps even promoting the state of the art and so potentially benefiting mankind, more power to him. It's a lot of fun and no one else is doing any better.

As I see it, getting to orbit isn't as big a deal as the flight controls that John is engineering. Orbit merely requires getting a correct velocity vector. Making a rocket hover in flight is much more complicated.


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Post Re: Why not   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 2:34 pm
culture wrote:
Dan Frederiksen wrote:
.... (because how dare I criticize anyone)....


Hi Dan!

How about people criticizing you and your car? Do you dare to say "Hey, maybe you're right and I was wrong". Ready to treat people with respect instead of telling them they are mindless? Ready to actually open your mind and maybe learn something instead of judging people?

With all the traces you left on the internet you showed non of the above...

But...still looking forward to discuss your freerider :wink:

cheers,

c.


+1

Or as you feel AA are not making progress you could update your build log and show us your progress you are making.

I would be interested to hear a reply to some of the question I raised before in the thread. Or you could talk about your motor control strategy as you can mimic a differential that has completely variable open to closed arangment. This could actually be interesting as the traction control / stability / regenerative breaking would make this an interesting part of your design.

Quick legal note, in the UK it is illegal to have duel engine vehicle where the power from each engine drive different wheels. It is likely that a similar laws are Europe wide. .


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:01 pm
ceebmoj, if you will join me in asking AA to go for lean orbit, I'll talk to you more about the car concept


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 3:44 pm
Dan Frederiksen wrote:
ceebmoj, if you will join me in asking AA to go for lean orbit, I'll talk to you more about the car concept

I'm new around here and just stopped by to congratulate the AA guys on continuing to build upon their successes and I ran across this thread and Dan Frederiksen.

Dan is right in that going to orbit is simple and should be able to be done with COTS technology and much faster than the current rate of progress. Unfortunately, Dan doesn't seem to understand that there is a difference between doing something in theory and actually putting the hardware together and making it work as designed. It's called "engineering", and judging by Dan's posts on this thread alone, It's pretty clear that he has no understanding of engineering at all, despite being a self-proclaimed and apparently born-again genius. It would seem that Dan has not been availing himself of all of the state-funded educational opportunities that are provided by his mother country, one of the largest welfare states in Europe. In addition, it would seem that Dan has not availed himself of Demark's health care system as much as he perhaps should.

If Dan would like to browbeat an central US-based race-to-space private enterprise company, he'd be better off lambasting the group planning to fly a Learjet into space whilst doing its best to separate as many government and private sources of funding from those very funds as fast as possible. They're only based a few hundred kilometers east of AA.

The guys at AA are actually doing things, Dan. They actually understand the problems that they are trying to solve ad they are solving them. They're even working on an LNG fueled motor which I find interesting as I work with LNG processes on a daily basis from a safety and engineering standpoint. I'm certain that they will continue to succeed in their projects and produce functioning, practical, and safe technologies that will open space to muh more easy access and lead to many fortunes being made in the stars.

Remember MY predictions, Dan, in ten, twenty, or thirty years when they are working in space and you are still sitting at a terminal in Denmark, criticizing them for not doing it fast enough, or cheaply enough, or whatever your whine of the day happens to be by then. Assuming, of course, that you're still with us and haven't succumbed to a self-induced fit a apoplectic rage by then as the world continues to ignore your genius.

If you'd like to be taken seriously, please answer the questions raised in response to your comments completely and in as much detail as required. If you fail to do this, then please don't wonder why nobody takes you seriously.

Tim


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 4:52 pm
Hi Dan!

Dan Frederiksen wrote:
ceebmoj, if you will join me in asking AA to go for lean orbit, I'll talk to you more about the car concept

How many have joined your quest so far? 0?

But lots of people willing to discuss you car..... like me ;)

cheers

c.


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Post Re: How many years John.   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 4:52 pm
tmelton, you first agree with me that it's easy and then say I don't know what I'm talking about...

and in 30 years many on this list will have died from old age and that might well include John Carmack, you schmuck. we don't live forever here!

you can't even spot an obvious contradiction and you want to question my understand of engineering difficulty..
my point is exactly: 'while we're still alive please'. and of course it can be done in short order. John just doesn't yet have the focus and the courage. I don't particularly blame him for the lack of courage, I've built a 2 liter solid propellant rocket and that was a somewhat scary notion to fill that with molten rocket fuel, but I would like him to at least admit that to himself and be aware of the math of lean orbit. being conscious of what one is doing is extremely empowering.

John is very talented but he's not flawless. don't be scared of that truth. it doesn't weaken you, it empowers you.


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Post Re: How many years John.   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:46 pm
Dan Frederiksen wrote:
and in 30 years many on this list will have died from old age and that might well include John Carmack,


John Carmack is 4 years younger than I am. He isn't going to die of old age in 30 years.

Dan Frederiksen wrote:
of course it can be done in short order.


Back about WW II, some rocket scientists launched a high-altitude rocket that was designed to detonate a charge and send molten metal spewing into the upper atmosphere. As I recall, Werner von Braun speculated that some particles of this molten metal were traveling in the right direction and velocity to achieve low Earth orbit. But, that wasn't very useful.

There are more important things in space exploration than merely achieving orbit or sub-orbit. One would like to do useful things once there, but one would also like to do useful things elsewhere. It seems likely to me that John Carmack sees other important things besides merely getting something into orbit. He might be developing a viable business model, for example.


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Post Re: How many years John.   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:26 pm
Pooua wrote:
It seems likely to me that John Carmack sees other important things besides merely getting something into orbit. He might be developing a viable business model, for example.

Exactly. Carmack spent the last M years and $N millions developing the basic, increasingly stable LOX/alcohol rocket they have now. What he wants next are CUSTOMERS and REVENUE, two concepts that Dan seems blithely ignorant of.

Getting soup-can satellites to orbit might be a fun parlor trick, but if there's no business there, then Carmack could blow $X more millions without any revenue to show for it, and Carmack wants Armadillo to get into the black so it can become self-sustaining. Otherwise, even his fortune won't last forever.

Fortunately, we can pretty much count on Carmack and company making solid achievements and earning real money in the bargain. They're on a track to orbit, I'm sure; but they are going to get there incrementally, iteratively, and hopefully profitably. And they'll have the benefit of Dan's monomaniacal and nearsighted rantings to show them what NOT to do.

(And calling Carmack cowardly? Wow, talk about a self-sabotaging maneuver. If Dan really wants to influence Carmack, he's certainly going about it in the worst possible way. The likelier probability is that Dan simply wants to bolster his own ego by pretending he knows more than Carmack. He seems to be failing even at that, unfortunately.)


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:47 pm
Rob, just maybe there would be customers for a satellite with 20cm resolution. both up and down.
but do you even know what that means..

when you insist on underestimating me you will always just become more wrong.
John should do it with his own money just because it's actually cool. but there is plenty of revenue opportunity in it as well.

sigh


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Post Re: How many years John   Posted on: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:22 pm
Dan, what part of illegal are you not understanding?

There are already Commercial imaging satellites with that sort of resolution, but it illegal for them to publish imagery. The only people he could sell the images to are the DoD. John could not do what you are talking about without renouncing his Citizenship and leaving America forever.

You are asking him to go into voluntary exile from his homeland so you can wet your pants over some photos?

Seriously?

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