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Uncanny Ties! (and not your granpappies bow tie either)

Posted by: crux42 - Mon May 15, 2006 6:49 pm
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Uncanny Ties! (and not your granpappies bow tie either) 
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Spaceflight Trainee
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Post Uncanny Ties! (and not your granpappies bow tie either)   Posted on: Mon May 15, 2006 6:49 pm
I know I am (for the moment) in the lead...but I'll risk the forum's ire by asking anyway...

How is it that so many predictions made by two of our esteemed competitors come only after mine have been made (or other players) and are improbably close in proximity to my own or whoever the match may be?

I've noticed a trend since the tournament started and reviewed said players predictions in xls format...after a period of expected differences early in April their ability to match their opposition's predictions with a tie or within .5 deg has improved to amazing precision (including precip and humidity). It is so amazing that I find it hard to believe that they have become meteorological/telepath savants within weeks [not to say that this trend has aided so many wins on their part].

There are only two options that might explain this feat of improbability: cheating or tactic.

I do not believe that anyone is cheating, for had they found a way to cheat they would have a better success rate in winning. However, because the game is built with great transparency, I wonder if they haven't found some way to 'see' predictions before making their own. Perhaps Dinkin can help?

Good (luck?) everyone,
crux


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Post    Posted on: Mon May 15, 2006 6:50 pm
That should be 'grandpappy's'...


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Space Walker
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Post matching transparency   Posted on: Mon May 15, 2006 8:15 pm
As soon as halo or wxbrief or anyone who plays more than once matches crux42, they can see his play in the play detail within ten minutes of their first play. Subsequent plays can then be made with a pretty good guess about what they are going to be matched with subsequently if crux42 regularly play many plays with the same prediction early.

There are no particularly convenient solutions for him. Some partial ones follow: play fewer plays per day, play later, disperse his plays throughout the day so that he can update his prediction, buy higher level plays and/or mix things up a little with his plays so that his subsequent plays are harder to predict.

In development, we are planning to have a multiple play populate tool based on the advanced control. That is, the same prediction can populate many entries. With that upgrade, we have in development a way to hide all plays in a group until the last one is matched. That will take some time to implement.

As a patch, we are considering making the matching less frequent. This will not protect him very much if he plays early in the day and goes unmatched, but telling players what their opponent predicted before the end of the day assures everyone that the game is fair. Perhaps we can make matches once every six hours as a way to balance the two needs. If we have the last one before end of day at 6:10 PM eastern, then that would give you a six-hour window to put in plays without anyone being able to see the match result until midnight. What do you all think about this proposed change to the clearing practices?

You have chutzpah to complain with your record!

Good skill,

Sam


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