Community > Forum > Bigelow's America's Space Prize > Who will win the America's Space Prize?

Who will win the America's Space Prize?

Posted by: Soyuz - Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:53 pm
Post new topic Reply to topic
 [ 17 posts ] 
Who will win the America's Space Prize? 

Who will the America's Space Prize?
Poll ended at Sun Apr 10, 2005 9:53 pm
Armadillo Aerospace 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
Blue Origin 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
Interorbital Systems 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
JP Aerospace 7%  7%  [ 2 ]
Kistler Aerospace 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Scaled Composites 17%  17%  [ 5 ]
SpaceX 37%  37%  [ 11 ]
somebody else 23%  23%  [ 7 ]
Total votes : 30

Who will win the America's Space Prize? 
Author Message
Spaceflight Participant
Spaceflight Participant
avatar
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 55
Location: Belgium
Post Who will win the America's Space Prize?   Posted on: Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:53 pm
After all the "Who wil win the X-Prize" topics, it's time for a "Who will win the America's Space Prize" topic. :)
I think Scaled Composites and Blue Origin are the most likely to win. But i think Rutan has an annoying problem: he will have to choose between designing the CEV or trying to win bigelows prize. If he tries both he will have trouble proving his America's Space Prize vehicle is indepently funded from his CEV vehicle. And he will have an enormous amount of work to do: designing VSS Enterprise for Virgin Galactic, working on the CEV together with t/Space and designing a vehicle for this prize.


Back to top
Profile
Space Station Commander
Space Station Commander
User avatar
Joined: Sat May 22, 2004 8:59 am
Posts: 578
Location: Zurich
Post    Posted on: Fri Nov 12, 2004 8:44 am
You should put in an option for "nobody" ... I think the time constraint is too short for anyone to have a decent shot at the prize under the current rules. :?

DKH

_________________
Per aspera ad astra


Back to top
Profile
Spaceflight Participant
Spaceflight Participant
avatar
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:52 pm
Posts: 62
Post Re: Who will win the America's Space Prize?   Posted on: Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:39 pm
Soyuz wrote:
After all the "Who wil win the X-Prize" topics, it's time for a "Who will win the America's Space Prize" topic. :) .


I would expect almost assuredly if anyone wins -- it will be a consortium of several companies working together. My favorite combination is:

SpaceX: For their boosters obviously. They also are building the highest-tech rockets in existence today and have valuable knowledge to contribute to such a project.

Blue Origin -- Bezos has the ability to fund a project like this to completion. This project can *not* depend on outside funding and have a chance of succeeding in the set timeframe. He's apparently also assembled a team with expertise in numerous areas. They will be essential in the design of the spacecraft & integration of its various systems.

Cessna -- They have the experience, equipment and workforce to construct the airframe & pressure vessel. In addition -- they can provide assistance in avionics integration. They also have experience in designing cabin layouts to maximize the use of small volumes and minimize power requirements.


Back to top
Profile
Space Walker
Space Walker
avatar
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2004 2:00 pm
Posts: 213
Post    Posted on: Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:12 pm
How about this one, Andrews Space?

http://www.andrews-space.com/

Spacedaily has the following article on the NASA CEV program. There are a couple of small companies awarded contracts for the studies. Maybe some of them would be interested?

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/nasa-04zp.html


Back to top
Profile
Spaceflight Participant
Spaceflight Participant
avatar
Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 55
Location: Belgium
Post    Posted on: Fri Nov 12, 2004 4:31 pm
Dr_Keith_H wrote:
You should put in an option for "nobody" ... I think the time constraint is too short for anyone to have a decent shot at the prize under the current rules. :?

DKH


I was thinking about doing that but i feared everyone would choose that option. So consider the question to be: If someone wins the America's Space Prize, who will it be?
But i also think if there are a few teams that look like they have got a chance, Bigelow will extend the deadline. If there are no valuable candidates he will simply cancel the prize and look for another way to get his guests to his hotel.


Back to top
Profile
Launch Director
Launch Director
avatar
Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 7:51 am
Posts: 19
Post    Posted on: Sat Nov 13, 2004 12:09 am
The andrews idea is ceratinly interesting, refining oxygen from the air on the way up. Makes it similar to Bristols idea of inflight refueling. In their video they were talking 40ton payload, but they dont say if this includes the second stage or if its payload to LEO.
I must confess that I have concerns with these big space plane ideas.
1, The only successful large supersonic aircraft were the XB-70, Concorde, Concordski, and the large Russian bomber, which I have forgotten the name of.
All of these projects have one thing in common, they cost heaps to develop, heaps to run, and went well over time to develop. While I accpet that the cost in this area isnt as important as it would be in a commercial airline operation, Im still left wondering whether they are feasable.
2, They state reduced turn around times, and compared to the shuttle, thats probably true, but the turn around time for the Concord was hardly quick.

Assuming that the time table is realistic, which I dont think that it is, I would have to go with Armidilo, mainly because of their method.


Back to top
Profile
Moderator
Moderator
avatar
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Post    Posted on: Sun Nov 14, 2004 1:14 pm
Scaled seems to be that company that can use the most synergies:

1. Five seats in Branson's vehicle as well as in the ASP vehicle.
2. Working on the CEV as well as on the ASP vehicle - both orbital, both with docking capabilities.

Up to a certain degree they can reuse concepts from the one constructing or building the other - similar to ESA's strategy to reduce the investment costs of their probes.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


Last edited by Ekkehard Augustin on Mon Nov 15, 2004 7:52 am, edited 1 time in total.



Back to top
Profile
Moon Mission Member
Moon Mission Member
User avatar
Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:15 pm
Posts: 1233
Location: London, England
Post    Posted on: Sun Nov 14, 2004 5:20 pm
I think that Scaled has already got to much to do with the CEV and Virgin's 5 passenger ships to throw their hat in the ring for anything else. They might assist a group but I think that it is unlikely they would make a bid themselves. I suspect that they do not have the level of resources needed to divert to other projects and since they are already commited to Virgin that will take priority.

Of course thats not to say that they wont make a late bid once the virgin contract is complete, if there are enough sinergies with the work they've already done.

My money's on SpaceX, once Elon Mask has demonstrated that the Falcon V is a good launch system someone will step foward to design a manned ship for it, if SpaceX dosent do it themselves that is.

I dont think that Armadillo has the time to finish developement of their x-prize craft and then either scale it up or design a new vehicle before Bigelow's deadline runs out, though they might team with other groups.

_________________
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.


Back to top
Profile WWW
Moderator
Moderator
avatar
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Post    Posted on: Mon Nov 15, 2004 8:13 am
Writing my post and voting in the poll it was difficult to make up my mind between SpaceX and Scaled - their chances seem to be very similar.

SpaceX may get to the orbit unmanned next year - under this aspect they will be in the lead then. But they are missing experiences in manned flights - Scaled has these experiences and the Know How required. Concerning synergies I am still thinking about SpaceX.

Some words about Interorbital - they are able to get the lead if they really manage to launch unmanned successfully to the orbit in 2005. But they say to have a budget of 4 million $ only and they are looking for customers - which they hope to get after a first successful orbital launch. It's hard to estimate their chances.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


Back to top
Profile
Space Walker
Space Walker
avatar
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2004 2:00 pm
Posts: 213
Post    Posted on: Mon Nov 15, 2004 8:45 am
At the end of the day, it would have been a distraction, Musk said. I can make more money in contracts and revenues than I could winning the X Prize.

He also is not all that excited about the prospect of space tourism.


http://www.xprizenews.org/index.php?p=645#more-645

I think the same holds for the ASP. SpaceX's core business is launchers and he stands to change the industry if Falcon V lives up to its billing and they are unlikely to participate in the ASP unless someone pays them to do it (for the booster)

Anyway, I voted for someone else. It seems the pre-requsite for this prize seems to be aleast guranteed funding followed by technical competence. Don't know enough about Blue Origin but they could be the dark horse.


Back to top
Profile
Moderator
Moderator
avatar
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Post    Posted on: Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:21 pm
According to the article
"One small step for space tourism Dec 16th 2004, The Economist print edition
If plans for a new range of suborbital vehicles get off the drawing board, then holidays in space could get off the ground" ( http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... id=3500237 ) Burt Rutan "...thinks it would cost around $400m-500m, and 5-7 years, to get a new craft into orbit...".

This may mean that only a consortium can win the ASP unless Musk, Branson or Bigelow himself would do it. But Bigelow is working on space stations and wouldn't start working on vehicles and Musk has said, that he doesn't trust the space travel market.

However Musk may agree to form a consortium with one or more other teams after a several successful launches of the Falcon V - ...

...what do you think?

On the other hand Branson has registered now "... About 13,000 people from around the world ..." according to the article which would mean a total revenue of 2.6 billion $ if all this people would buy a ticket at the end and if he would sell all these tickets at a price of 200,000 $ each. I think, this would be sufficient to get a profit which could finance the costs of 400 million $ to 500 million $ Rutan has been quoted to estimate.

The article too says, that Virgin can get into the profit zone after five years because "... it need fill only 5,000 seats over the first five years ..."

Bad news? Good news? From my point of view a changed look at it only. I wouldn't risk a guess wether Rutan will enter the ASP when he has ready Virgin Galactic's vehicles or wether he will not. Up to now he still is the only one having a working suborbital vehicle.



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


Back to top
Profile
Spaceflight Trainee
Spaceflight Trainee
avatar
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:22 pm
Posts: 34
Post    Posted on: Sat Jan 29, 2005 2:27 pm
I don´t think Scaled bother with this prize, they have other projects going like the Globalflyer and SS2.

_________________
Have cool, will travel...


Back to top
Profile
Moderator
Moderator
avatar
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:23 am
Posts: 3745
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Post    Posted on: Sun Jan 30, 2005 3:59 pm
I myself never will guess the one, the other or anything third - Rutan and Scaled are too much to be expected to surprise us.

But There is one thing to be remarked here because of one of the recent news - SpaceX will try to win the ASP without consortium but alone.

It will be very interesting to see the Falcon I launch and fly - and to see wether it is successful in achieving the orbit...



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)


Back to top
Profile
Spaceflight Trainee
Spaceflight Trainee
avatar
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2004 1:22 pm
Posts: 34
Post    Posted on: Wed Mar 02, 2005 5:44 pm
Seem like the globalflyer is going to fail, see http://www.globalflyer.com/News/8am_tues_update.jsp
Makes it even more likely that Mr Rutan and Scaled gets involved in this competition...

_________________
Have cool, will travel...


Back to top
Profile
Moon Mission Member
Moon Mission Member
User avatar
Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:15 pm
Posts: 1233
Location: London, England
Post    Posted on: Wed Mar 02, 2005 7:22 pm
What about SpaceDev, they are developing their own sub-orbital vehicle as well as a joint one with NASA. Once they have achieved sub-orbital the craft is supposed to be able to be scaled up to orbital flight, they might be in with a shot. Jim Benson has has put a lot of work in with his company, I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a bid for the ASP.

_________________
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.


Back to top
Profile WWW
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 17 posts ] 
 

Who is online 

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests


cron
© 2014 The International Space Fellowship, developed by Gabitasoft Interactive. All Rights Reserved.  Privacy Policy | Terms of Use