How crafty might the XPRIZE prove to be?

As the article "Burt Rutan, in his own words" reports Rutan wants to make lunar tourism possible. The XPRIZE is pulling the public interest to Rutans efforts and caused business between Scaled/Mojave and Branson and his Virgin Galactic.

The next prize, Bigelow's America's Space Prize, has just be set and no winner could be expected yet - and Rutan is thinking on things above LEO.

I said in other threads that there shouldn't be an orbital XPRIZE because the race for the orbit is on already.

Do Rutan's words mean that the race for the moon is on already too? Has the XPRIZE caused this race and Rutan's efforts? I think so. Might the XPRIZE cause things beyond the moon too or will that require a new prize?



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb) Augustin (Political Economist)

On the other hand, once a certain momentum and return on investment is reached, prizes become irrevalent and are quickly outstripped by the speed of technical progress; I give you aviation after Lindbergh as an example. Rutan, now, can certainly attract plenty of investment capital for projects without participating in prizes IF they slow him up.

And that's good. That's what the X Prize was really ecouraging from the very first, a viable space industry.

--Ralph

I think once you've got routine, economical, flights to orbit, visiting just about anywhere in the solar system will be astonishingly easy.

Especially the moon, which is a mere few days away, so you don't even need to have a year-long mission ready.

To say it more exactly - I'm mentioning the direct effects and impacts only but the indirect effects and encouragements the more.

The XPRIZE competition being over has impacts and effects beyond the end of the competition - how long will these effects be lasting? To lunar tourism or beyond? What is the nearest goal that will require a new prize - Mars? Or would it be Callisto, Ganymed, Europa, Io, Titan?



Dipl.-Volkswirt (bdvb9 Augustin (Political Economist)

Well the question is will prizes be needed to spur interest to more places? I mean if there is enough interest in general, will we need more prizes? I suppose its not an easy question, obviously you always need to spur interest in something like a product, say, if u upgrade it, you may have to spur more interest in the product..again.

So now that the Xprize is over, you might have to get people interested in privatized space, and suppose the best idea to do so is yet another prize. But are they needed? Will people eventually gain enough interest, or excuse me. enough PEOPLE gain enough interest, in which a GOAL will not be needed for extended space exploration?

I suppose thats more of the question..

We are at a turning point in history. If Virgin Galactic makes money, then no more prizes will be needed to get us to orbit and the Moon. If Virgin looses money, prizes won't help. I believe Virgin WILL make money and Rutan WILL make good on his affordable Lunar travel dream and I am just so excited about the whole thing that I can hardly stand it!